Will the resale market cool down?

[Gary Carter]

We purchased 100 Saratoga springs points resale a couple of years ago at 100 dollars per point. I'm STUNNED to see they have raised 30%. Is this a trend that you guys think will continue? Will it Plateau for a while? or will it calm down?

 

[HappyDisneyWife]

I, personally, think it has gotten out of hand recently. That 30% increase didn’t happen over a few years- but just a few months... and pretty much across the board (within DVC). I keep thinking it’s got to plateau- even head downwards, but then I think about the stimulus packages... I’m not sure when inflation will hit, or if it already has started, but I have to believe printing billions of dollars will be felt.

 

[Gary Carter]

I, personally, think it has gotten out of hand recently. That 30% increase didn’t happen over a few years- but just a few months... and pretty much across the board (within DVC). I keep thinking it’s got to plateau- even head downwards, but then I think about the stimulus packages... I’m not sure when inflation will hit, or if it already has started, but I have to believe printing billions of dollars will be felt.

I really hope you're right. We would love to buy another 100 points, but paying 130 per point for Saratoga Springs just feels like getting taken.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

I don’t think it’ll cool down much. People are desperate to travel again. (Me included.)

Many people saved a lot of money during the pandemic and are able to afford luxuries like DVC.

Direct prices continue to go up. So do hotel rackrates.

It all makes resale seem tempting, even with the current restrictions.

 

[RoseGold]

I mean yea, it will cool down as the contracts start to lose years, but that's a long time from now. If it makes you feel better, a $30 price change in SSR doesn't really change the overall math much:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2021/
Of course, by that logic, RIV is looking pretty good too.

I don't see huge price swings coming, but I do think resale will be less of a seller's market in the near future, if you have the time to wait and hunt for a good, loaded contract. Heck, there's some on the market now that I consider good.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I know there are sponsorship relationships with this website, but DVC Resale Market prices are not what I'd call indicative of the actual market. Shop around. Prices are definitely up, but SSR for $130 is not the best you can find.

Interestingly, SSR direct is very appealing right now for a buyer who doesn't yet have their blue card.

 

[OKW Lover]

As long as Disney keeps increasing the price of direct points then the resale market will continue to climb.

 

[DisneyRunner2009]

We bought in because of increasing room rates at values and moderates.

 

[davidl81]

History tells you DVC prices will not go down short of a major recession/depression (clearly not talking about the 2042 resorts as they get closer to expiration). They mostly follow the overall housing market. Resale prices will stop rising at some point (or at least slow down increasing), but it's unlikely they will reduce meaningfully in price. I would say if you want more points the odds are now will be cheaper than a year form now etc. But as Cap stated earlier there are a lot of places online besides sponsors who resale DVC. You can find better prices than $130, but it does get hard if you are trying to match use year etc right now, inventory is just limited.

 

[CastAStone]

We purchased 100 Saratoga springs points resale a couple of years ago at 100 dollars per point. I'm STUNNED to see they have raised 30%. Is this a trend that you guys think will continue? Will it Plateau for a while? or will it calm down?

A stronger economy does four things for DVC resale prices:

• ⬆ Demand
• ⬇ Supply
• ⬆ Intrinsic value (hotel prices)
• ⬆ ROFR, because sold out demand is strong, and Disney isn’t getting very many foreclosure contracts

So prices will keep going up as long as the economy is doing OK.

in a recession, Demand will fall as people Who have even the slightest tickling of fear about their job situation stop making luxury purchases, Supply will increase as people lose jobs, see reduced commissions or production numbers, or just generally prefer cash as a hedge against something bad, The Intrinsic Value of the contracts will drop is Disney increases hotel discounting, and as Disney gets back more foreclosure contracts, they will stop ROFRing.

This will create a negative feedback loop, contracts will sit for quite some time, people will drop prices to move contracts they need to sell, and rock-bottom sales won’t get scooped up by Disney, creating no incentive for buyers not to keep lowballing contracts. Someone got a Beach Club contract for $68 last summer because Disney didn’t take it.

History tells you DVC prices will not go down short of a major recession/depression

We’ve had 1 minor recession (last spring/early summer) since prices became easily traceable and prices dropped as much as 20% at some resorts in a matter of weeks so I’m not sure how you can say that. The government quickly bailed us out of the recession and prices turned sharply positive, but it still happened. The same forces that move the supply curve also move the demand curve, which is unusual across markets, and creates a lot of price risk.

 

[Gary Carter]

A stronger economy does four things for DVC res prices:

• ⬆ Demand
• ⬇ Supply
• ⬆ Intrinsic value (hotel prices)
• ⬆ ROFR, because sold out demand us strong, and Disney isn’t getting very many foreclosure contracts

So prices will keep going up as long as the economy is doing OK.

in a recession, Demand will fall as people Who have even the slightest tickling of fear about their job situation start making luxury purchases, Supply will increase as people lose jobs, see reduced commissions or production numbers, or just generally prefer cash as a hedge against something bad, The Intrinsic Value of the contracts will drop is Disney increases hotel discounting, and as Disney gets back more foreclosure contracts, they will stop ROFRing.

This will create a negative feedback loop, contracts will sit for quite some time, people will drop prices to move contracts they need to sell, and rock-bottom sales won’t get scooped up by Disney, creating no incentive for buyers not to keep lowballing contracts. Someone got a Beach Club contract for $68 last summer because Disney didn’t take it.


We’ve had 1 minor recession (last spring/early summer) since prices became easily traceable and prices dropped as much as 20% at some resorts in a matter of weeks so I’m not sure how you can say that. The government quickly bailed us out of the recession and prices turned sharply positive, but it still happened. The same forces that move the supply curve also move the demand curve, which is unusual across markets, and creates a lot of price risk.

Someone Got beach club at 68 PPT?!?!?!? Wow

 

[Brett Wyman]

So glad we did the HHI add on for $57 at the beginning of the pandemic when everything was shut down!

 

[davidl81]

Someone Got beach club at 68 PPT?!?!?!? Wow

Yes, it was listed on a site that most people use to rent timeshares through. Not necessarily just dvc time shares. They also offer sales from time to time. No idea why they listed it that low, but they sure as heck did. I want to say it was 300 points for like $16,500 (I may be off a tad on that). I tried to buy it, but someone beat me to it.

 

[HappyDisneyWife]

Yes, it was listed on a site that most people use to rent timeshares through. Not necessarily just dvc time shares. They also offer sales from time to time. No idea why they listed it that low, but they sure as heck did. I want to say it was 300 points for like $16,500 (I may be off a tad on that). I tried to buy it, but someone beat me to it.

I saw it too, but like you- I was too late. It was already under contract... however, I thought for sure it would be taken!!! I can’t believe it passed!!!!!

 

[CastAStone]

Yes, it was listed on a site that most people use to rent timeshares through. Not necessarily just dvc time shares. They also offer sales from time to time. No idea why they listed it that low, but they sure as heck did. I want to say it was 300 points for like $16,500 (I may be off a tad on that). I tried to buy it, but someone beat me to it.

Same!