Will the prices really go down?

[SL6827]

Now this post is NOT to be political but more on grocery stores, retailers ect.

With the tariffs on some food, grocery items being repelled, do you think Walmart, Kroger, Publix will actually lower the prices on these items or just pocket the difference?

 

[LAS2AMS]

It’s a competitive industry. Perishable prices regularly fluctuate based on wholesale rates.

 

[cruisehopeful]

It's been my experience that prices can drop, but never to whatever they were. If something went up $2/ for taxes for example and the tax expires or is removed, the price will drop.50. So, the result is still $1.50 more than before the special tax. I live in San Diego so maybe that's just what it's like where I live.

 

[tvguy]

It’s a competitive industry. Perishable prices regularly fluctuate based on wholesale rates.

Yup. Prices HAVE gone down on some items at Walmart. And I suspect you are correct, it has to do with wholesale prices. Right now Minute Maid Orange Juice is down from $4.47 to $2.78 a carton. That's 4.7 cents an ounce. A slightly larger carton of Great Value Orange Juice is still $4.97, 7.8 cents an ounce.
Campbells Chunky Soup was $2.58 a can, it is down to $1.98.
Bubly sparkling water was $3.97 for an 8 pack, it is now $2.97.

 

[HopperFan]

My POV .... They didn't drop too much across the board after the COVID shutdown. Businesses used the prices as a way to make even more money, and to appear to be cutting prices ... while leaving still them higher than they should be.

I went to grocery yesterday and there was beef anywhere from $10.99 to $20.00 a pound, and $10.99 was high fat ground beef. No surprise we are eating mostly chicken. I live in one of the biggest chicken producing states so I think that helps with our prices.

Overall Beef Prices per lb
Pre-COVID $7.50
2023 $9.50
2024 $10.50
Early 2025 almost $11.00
Now $12.50
Beef is up 20% in just 9 months, and 67% since COVID.

NOW that is averages, overall etc because where I am that $12.50 is reasonable, we have beef $20 and above per pound.

NO ONE can make any business drop it's prices, we are at the mercy of their good will and if dropping makes sense for them. How is it selling at these prices? If selling why drop. Will they sell more if they lower or would it make sense to hold and guarantee their profits? What does their supply chain look like along with their costs? If they drop price and sell more, can they get more? If no, bad move to drop. As more domestic farms are closing and we are dealing with corporations .... do they even care? And honestly what is the quality going to be with less and less FDA oversight?

Our grocery prices have been going up steady for at least six months. Our store has severely reduced what they are offering, removing fixtures so you don't notice. Product is only 2-3 deep when it used to be 6 deep. EX: My store has eliminated probably 60% of the cookies previously sold. Cookie prices, like Chips-A-Hoy now $6 ..... sale is $4. For junk! We have learned to shop big sales (freeze or store) and basics. No plans to go back to the "extras" no matter the price.

 

[barkley]

Beef is up 20% in just 9 months, and 67% since COVID.

a family member does calf roping and for decades has a routine of purchasing a couple, using them to practice and then when they age out/the weather turns selling them off. we were recently talking about beef prices and he said that historically he and his friends that do this always lose money on the what they can sell for vs. their original cost plus the cost of feed/care for the animals but THIS year they were shocked when they not only recouped their costs but made a decent profit.

beef prices are insane.

We have learned to shop big sales (freeze or store)

we do this as well. I used to do it allot to save money when we were a household with growing kiddos but I pulled back when the household started shrinking. now i'm back at it to save where I can-and i'm VERY thankful that in addition to a freezer we have an vacuum sealer and to a greater extent-a meat grinder attachment for our kitchen-aide b/c I refuse to pay the obscene prices for nasty fat laden ground beef when there's been occasional sales on roasts that we can trim and grind for much less (local place has chuck roaststs for $5.69 a pound right now-81% ground is selling for $9.31 ). same thing with sausage-there have been sales (one super sale recently for .99 cents a pound) on pork loin chops-i can grind and bag it (season it to my needs when I use it) vs. paying the bulk plain sausage (unseasoned) 'sale' price that's going now at $3 per pound.

 

[Jim Libasci]

Now this post is NOT to be political but more on grocery stores, retailers ect.

With the tariffs on some food, grocery items being repelled, do you think Walmart, Kroger, Publix will actually lower the prices on these items or just pocket the difference?

even if the tariffs ended companies are getting you used to paying more. like during covid. UNTIL we get a politician to get companies to address THIS prices on everything are going up

 

[hardcorestitch]

Now this post is NOT to be political but more on grocery stores, retailers ect.

With the tariffs on some food, grocery items being repelled, do you think Walmart, Kroger, Publix will actually lower the prices on these items or just pocket the difference?

I doubt it. Especially with the penny gone.

 

[MillauFr]

Maybe the old timers can pull their WIN (Whip Inflation Now) pins out of their drawers and start wearing them.

 

[LAS2AMS]

NO ONE can make any business drop it's prices

Prices on perishables has long fluctuated based on market. Chicken and egg prices swelled last year and have back down. In SoCal, we got an 18ct egg for $1.99 and chicken breast for $1.99/lb last week - that’s less that what we paid for these times 20 years ago, not factoring in inflation. So yea, if removing tariffs reduces what retailers pay, we’ll likely see some relief on these products.

This concept is different than how paper products have swelled.

 

[DCLMP]

Now this post is NOT to be political but more on grocery stores, retailers ect.

With the tariffs on some food, grocery items being repelled, do you think Walmart, Kroger, Publix will actually lower the prices on these items or just pocket the difference?

We had inflation long before the tariffs. The tariffs aren't the main cause. I've been saying for about four years that a bad recession is coming and think were about to see that soon. Will food prices come down? I don't know, but I think will see prices on non-essential things come down.

 

[HopperFan]

Prices on perishables has long fluctuated based on market. Chicken and egg prices swelled last year and have back down. In SoCal, we got an 18ct egg for $1.99 and chicken breast for $1.99/lb last week - that’s less that what we paid for these times 20 years ago, not factoring in inflation. So yea, if removing tariffs reduces what retailers pay, we’ll likely see some relief on these products.

This concept is different than how paper products have swelled.

My example was not fluctuation - it has been a steady, somewhat drastic, rise in prices. My example would not be impacted by tariffs if they bought American beef. Sure there are some sales (and I stock up) or slight dips ..... but overall prices are not going down. Eggs here are still double what we paid years ago. I'm sure it does make a difference where you live, we are currently at $2-2.50 a dozen here. But I think for groceries, we won't get any relief from reduced tariffs ... one reason is they have to plan for future costs and with the flip flops of these tariffs they can't trust they won't be back in a couple weeks. AND I don't blame them at all. They have to price to survive the chaos.

 

[LAS2AMS]

My example was not fluctuation - it has been a steady, somewhat drastic, rise in prices. My example would not be impacted by tariffs if they bought American beef. Sure there are some sales (and I stock up) or slight dips ..... but overall prices are not going down. Eggs here are still double what we paid years ago. I'm sure it does make a difference where you live, we are currently at $2-2.50 a dozen here. But I think for groceries, we won't get any relief from reduced tariffs ... one reason is they have to plan for future costs and with the flip flops of these tariffs they can't trust they won't be back in a couple weeks. AND I don't blame them at all. They have to price to survive the chaos.

You’re forking into a separate argument. The price of perishables have long been volatile and grocers prices have long reflected the ups and downs of the market. It’s a competitive industry, so yes, some grocers will pass the savings onto shoppers.

Perishables typically have the slimiest profit margins, since these drive traffic into the stores. Things like household, health & beauty and service deli/ bakery typically have the highest mark ups and is where the bulk of the profit is earned.

 

[DCLMP]

My example was not fluctuation - it has been a steady, somewhat drastic, rise in prices. My example would not be impacted by tariffs if they bought American beef. Sure there are some sales (and I stock up) or slight dips ..... but overall prices are not going down. Eggs here are still double what we paid years ago. I'm sure it does make a difference where you live, we are currently at $2-2.50 a dozen here. But I think for groceries, we won't get any relief from reduced tariffs ... one reason is they have to plan for future costs and with the flip flops of these tariffs they can't trust they won't be back in a couple weeks. AND I don't blame them at all. They have to price to survive the chaos.

The inflation started back in 21/22. Tariffs have been around about 7 months and aren't the cause of the problem. This started years ago. Supply issues and government debt have caused cause inflation. The increase of debt over the last five years has put a lot of upward pressure on prices. Government debt has gone from 27 trillion in 2019 to 38 trillion now.

Another factor is the increase in wages. Fast food workers in my state have gone from making 10 dollars a hour in 2019 to 20 dollars an hour now. Now fast food places are closing down because nobody can afford to eat there.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

The inflation started back in 21/22. Tariffs have been around about 7 months and aren't the cause of the problem. This started years ago. Supply issues and government debt have caused cause inflation. The increase of debt over the last five years has put a lot of upward pressure on prices. Government debt has gone from 27 trillion in 2019 to 38 trillion now.

Another factor is the increase in wages. Fast food workers in my state have gone from making 10 dollars a hour in 2019 to 20 dollars an hour now. Now fast food places are closing down because nobody can afford to eat there.

We ate at a McDonalds in September. We rarely do and it's been many, many years since we set foot in one. There were kiosks to place your order. So, sure people who work there can demand much higher pay but then they just cut half the jobs that require a human.
At least Chick Fil A since has real people that take your order.

 

[smwisc]

Inflation is a rate of increase, not an absolute. When inflation is high, prices increase faster than usual. When inflation is low, prices increase less than usual (or stay steady, if inflation is near zero). But generally prices don't go down - that would be deflation, which is not good from a macroeconomic perspective.

(this is on average- obviously prices of individual things can go up or down or around in weird ways that don't match the overall trend)

 

[DCLMP]

We ate at a McDonalds in September. We rarely do and it's been many, many years since we set foot in one. There were kiosks to place your order. So, sure people who work there can demand much higher pay but then they just cut half the jobs that require a human.
At least Chick Fil A since has real people that take your order.

Our chick fila used to have a line a mile long. Now you can just drive up. The only place that I see around us that is busy is In-an-out, You can still get a combo meal there for around 10-11 dollars.

 

[DCLMP]

Inflation is a rate of increase, not an absolute. When inflation is high, prices increase faster than usual. When inflation is low, prices increase less than usual (or stay steady, if inflation is near zero). But generally prices don't go down - that would be deflation, which is not good from a macroeconomic perspective.

(this is on average- obviously prices of individual things can go up or down or around in weird ways that don't match the overall trend)

Deflation is worse. We saw that in 2008 after the housing bubble popped. We have asset bubbles in everything, a huge debt bubble and I really don't see this as sustainable. The federal reserve has recently pumped billions into the repo markets. Another liquidity crisis coming? I'm not feeling that optimistic about the next year.
As far as food goes. I feel like prices have somewhat stabilized. I'm not seeing the rapid price increases we experienced a couple of years ago.