Will SSR be the last DVC resort built?

[spiceycat]

oh I hope not....

I want a monrail DVC either the Cont or something else!!!!

also want one near to the AK (maybe closer (if possible) than AKL - would love to be able to walk here....

I don't think that either DVD or WDW is through building hotels/timeshares.

the economy is still not good enough for more WDW resorts. I am pretty sure that ALL of Pop Century will need to be open and during a good business before anything else is built.

DVC sales is not having a problem selling SSR. on the contrary I really think WDW is going to go big time into DVC - hey they have changed their website to DVC instead of home-away-from-home - that is got to mean something big is planned.

whether it is the Cont or something else - I feel certain there will be more DVC in the years to come - ask in 10 years and maybe I have changed my mind.

the offsite timeshares in Orlando are definitely growing (Marriott, HGVC, Sheraton, Fairfield, etc) - so why should DVC quit?

the tug members who know that Orlando is not a good timeshare if you ever want to trade - are not as many as you think.

I meet people here are work - who have never heard of tug - so they own a non-DVC timeshare in Orlando or Las Vegas.

I would even expect the next theme park that WDW builts (and yes I think WDW will build more) will include a DVC resort in the originally plans with a WDW resort.

 

[LAWalz23]

I am new to DVC and would definately add points if a Contemporary DVC were offered. My sister was told in Dec by one of the DVC guides that there was a good possibility that the next DVC would be the garden wings being torn down and DVC going up there.

 

[Dean]

Why is that Dean?

I think it will take 10 years to sell and don't see any more resorts. I could be wrong and frankly I hope so. I'd bet that EP will not be built.

 

[bongo59]

This is an interesting point. I was unable to get a studio at the last minute for Feb. 20-24th. I believe they also told me there were no 1 BR available either. However, I had my pick of any cash reservation at ALL of the other hotels...value, moderate, and deluxe...rack rate OR AP rate.

what this posts doesnt realize is that DVC guest spend on avg 500 dollars more per visit and visit more frequently...........Disney wants DVC er not cash customers............they are more profitable on a per unit basis

 

[sgtpet]

I think that SSR will be the end of DVC resort building. If they choose to build another resort I think it will be similar to VWL and BCV being an add-on to an existing resort.

 

[belsam]

I think DVC will continue to be built as Disney has construction costs leveraged through our purchases. Also, through the info at the Member Update last Wednesday, it sounds as though the new and first time ever national advertising campaign for DVC is hoping to make sales much higher. It seems that most people still say, "Wow, I wish I'd have known about DVC sooner" so they're really working on increasing it's visibility.

On another note, does anyone have any idea what the conversion rate is of people who take the DVC tour versus actually purchasing? When we were at SSR last week, we felt like there was an extremely high quantity of guests on the tour.

 

[jmuboy]

I believe that there will be future WDW resort hotels, both "regular" and DVC. That said, WDW is currently at a saturation point with hotel room. There are roughly 20K Disney owned rooms. We now see some pretty deep discounts on value priced rooms in the off season. I understand it is all speculation, but Disney has obviously realized they need to slow down their resort building. There is simply too many rooms in the Orlando area to meet the demand. Disney demands a certain rate for their rooms and in the off season they are not getting that rate any longer (for the most part). Consider the fact that phase 2 of the POP CENTURY resort sits untouched. And it will remain like that indefinitely, if not forever. WDW's hotel boom is over for a while. I for one am glad. I'd rather see them focus on great parks and attractions that help drive the health demand for their rooms first.

That said, there is a renovation of the Contemporary Resort that will begin in 2005. I have heard that during this renovation the Garden Wings will most likely be converted to DVC villas. So, the "Tower" will have regular guest rooms and the Garden Wings would house the DVC units. Villas at the Contemporary anyone? This could work because it would reduce the overall number of regular guest rooms and thus not create a cannibalistic effect. And reducing the number of "regular" deluxe resort rooms could open the window for a smaller deluxe price resort to be built in the future. There were always plans to build a resort on Bay Lake behind Tomorrowland. I guess I am saying, who knows what tomorrow holds.

And while we are discussing all of this. Does anyone know why Eagle Pines was backbunered and SSR was built instead? I think a smallish resort like Eagle Pines (size of the Shades of Green resort) would be great for DVC golf fans and week getaways for older travelers who want to relax. The Eagle Pines/Osprey Ridge area s so peaceful and secluded compared to some resort areas.

 

[DarthGoofy]

On another note, does anyone have any idea what the conversion rate is of people who take the DVC tour versus actually purchasing? When we were at SSR last week, we felt like there was an extremely high quantity of guests on the tour.

Our guide said 7 out of ten families who take the tour join.

 

[spiceycat]

DVD (DVC) did not expect WDW to suddenly offer them DI - but they sure went with it.

SSR was built first because all the ground work was done - the pipping, electricial stuff - yes they torn it down - but it is much cheaper to built when the ground work is already done. they did not have to test for the foundation - so much cheaper....

ssr in my mind, is a better location than EP was.

there are a lots of singles, and young couples that buy DVC (more than any other timeshares) and being close to DD and PI is a big plus for them.

 

[TCPluto]

I think it will take 10 years to sell and don't see any more resorts. I could be wrong and frankly I hope so. I'd bet that EP will not be built.

I hope your wrong Dean. However, you spend too much time in the timeshare world to mount a dispute to your conclusions.

I just hope you've missed it on this one. Let's see, your well thought out consideration against hope......

 

[tjkraz]

DVD (DVC) SSR was built first because all the ground work was done - the pipping, electricial stuff - yes they torn it down - but it is much cheaper to built when the ground work is already done. they did not have to test for the foundation - so much cheaper....

They also reused many of the common area buildings. The theater, restaurant, check-in, golf club house...that was all existing construction that was refurbished rather than having to build new.

I think a smallish resort like Eagle Pines (size of the Shades of Green resort) would be great for DVC golf fans and week getaways for older travelers who want to relax.

Eagle Pines was going to be at least as large as SSR. The press release mentions 600 villas (which is a little bigger than SSR's original plan for 552), and it references cash Inn rooms as well. As Spiceycat mentioned, EP would have been entirely new construction, while DVD was able to save a lot of money utilizing the DI infrastructure already in place.

Integrating the LBV golf clubhouse into SSR addresses that amenity--even moreso with the Phase 3 buildings right on the fairway.

 

[Granny]

I think there will be more.

With regard to the demand issue, I'm not convinced that they will continue to build as long as some demand exists. Every time they sell points to a new DVC member, they take another family out of the cash resorts.

If they are to continue selling points for another 10 or 20 years, they will have to develop a plan to address the inevitable decline in cash guests. More likely, I think they'll just stop building at some point and perhaps maintain a small sales staff to address ROFR point distribution.

I would imagine that Disney would LOVE to convert every cash guest into a DVC member.

A cash guest may or may not ever return...the DVC member is locked in for several decades! And my guess is that once the DVC member gets the points paid off, or no longer feels a cash flow pinch, they'll spend as much or more than they ever did at WDW because:

1. They know they won't have a big room bill at the end of the trip.
2. They go there often and will seek more ways to enjoy WDW than just going to the parks....think in terms of bke and boat rentals, Cirque de Soleil, DTD shopping, etc.

However, I don't think that Disney is going to run out of cash guests.

Hey...even us DVC members tend to be cash guests also. Especially those looking to save points on the weekends!

I have no idea if they'll build after SSR. I don't see it selling out by 2007-2008 though. Points are going to over $100 per point and the baby boomers are retiring and getting into the fixed income mode, so the big bubble of prospective buyers is slowing down.

If I had to guess, I'd say that there will be another DVC resort. But it will be on an existing site (Contemporary or add-on to another resort) and not Eagle Pines.

 

[DrBond007]

It would be fine with me if it was the last onsite resort built. There are plenty of resales for those people interested. I think the addition to the Contemporary is the most likely next DVC resort if they continue. But I think there are plenty of onsite DVC resorts now. No need for more.

 

[tjkraz]

Just remember that it's in our best interest that DVD / DVC continue to build new resorts.

New resorts = ongoing new point sales

Ongoing new point sales = ROFR on resale contracts

Without ROFR, the "value" of points (as determined by resale prices) would certainly fluctuate. Some properties would feel it more than others. But it would certainly cause many to walk away from DVC out of concern that Disney could begin to neglect the program and its owners

This isn't gonna happen today, tomorrow, next week or next year. But someday...

 

[Dean]

I'm having trouble buying that a DVC member will spend more than a cash guest at the same hotel type. I'm sure Disney has a ton of this type of demographic info but it doesn't seem that a DVC member will spend more than someone at GF or YC for example. What DVC does give is a steady stream of business to even out the down times.

 

[DrTomorrow]

I would imagine that Disney would LOVE to convert every cash guest into a DVC member.

A cash guest may or may not ever return...the DVC member is locked in for several decades! [...]

Yes, but a cash guest is almost 100% certain to spend time at Disney parks. A DVC owner - particularly one who's been going to WDW for a few decades - can easily spend a week at a DVC resort and not give a penny to Disney. IMHO this is what's going to happen as ownership durations hit 20-30 years, so cash guests are going to be even more important.

IMHO - YMMV

 

[belsam]

Originally quoted by Granny

Points are going to over $100 per point and the baby boomers are retiring and getting into the fixed income mode, so the big bubble of prospective buyers is slowing down.

We were struck last week by the overwhelming guests on the DVC sales tour who were definitely the grandparents of the family, not the parents of young children.

 

[dallastxcpa]

This is all IMHO, but each DVC resort has to have some cannibalizing effect from on-site resorts, as both DVC and non-DVC resorts draw from the same basic pool of "gotta stay on-site" customers. I grant that it's possible that Disney might stop building non-DVC resorts and focus on DVC, but that seems unlikely - WDW as a primarily time-share based facility?

Time, as they say, will tell.

I think this may ring true for some people, however it has been brought up that DVC has started letting in the lower middle class (hehehe). I happen to be one of those. Well maybe middle middle lower class.... If I had to save up my money to go on vacation at WDW it would never happen. In effect I am forcing myself to do this by paying for DVC now. The park tickets are chump change compared to $500/night for a 2 bedroom villa at the BWV.

 

[donaldbuzz&minnie]

Would Disney feel the same pressure to keep the parks operating at a high standard if the resort mix tilted significantly toward DVC? At some point down the line would they figure that a captive audience meant that they could relax the need to keep the parks in good condition and new attractions coming on line periodically?

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I would be ecstatic if they converted the Contemporary garden wings entirely into studios. I think this would take a bit of the reservation pressure off of the studios and would provide an incentive to cash guests to go to the garden wings.

Besides that I disagree with the notion that the DVC guest spends more. I certainly don't...in fact I probably spend less because I'm less likely to have that carefree go for broke I'm on vacation attitude. I want to use the kitchen(ette) not go out for every meal. I know my friends who are a family of five don't eat out as much as they used (although they do do takeout) but conversely I know a family that spends a fortune and likes it that way (but they aren't DVC). I DO go more often but that really meant more money in the pockets of the airline and Mears than in Disney's pockets. Now that I live close enough to drive I'll be more likely to eat offsite than on. I'm not a big fan of eating onsite for onsite's sake.

I suspect SSR won't sell out before 2008...especially if a monorail DVC comes online while SSR still has inventory to sell.