Will RIV have a fire sell?

[DonkeyHoTay]

I think a ‘fire sale’ has to be something that actively undermines the resale market. VGF did, I think maybe Aulani was fairly close a couple years back and the OKW one frankly I think qualifies. RIV is just reasonably deeply discounted....Frankly if I owned Poly I might actually sell right now and would rebuy when that 9+ million point resort absolutely tanks in a few years. ...

No doubt OKW was a fire sale. Interesting strategy on Poly... might be worth a look if pp drops to $!50 or below.

 

[davidhr]

I don’t gamble, but I’d bet on no.

Having said that, I’m manifesting a CCV fire sale. I don’t think they have the points to do it, but still sending my energy to see if it happens.

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Frankly if I owned Poly I might actually sell right now and would rebuy when that 9+ million point resort absolutely tanks in a few years. Those expecting a 250pp launch price are out to lunch. But DVD is often out to lunch and makes major tactical errors; we’re due for a mistake to be made, as they seemingly always do recently with the new product launches.

Why do you think it will tank?

 

[BrianLo]

Why do you think it will tank?

It's acting nonsensically. Poly was until recently topping the most economical list with DVCresalemarket.com. Consistently cheaper than Copper Creek (probably as contracts were a bit older). But then it lost touch with reality because there is a FOMO market, that doesn't even make sense. As in it's currently being sold for 200pp+ to unsavvy buyers.

I think it will be down to the 120-130's within a couple years (if that's where the rest of the market is at). It's going to be the second biggest resort next to SSR. Volume dictates resale value way more than it is given credit for.

Sort of the opposite of the run up on VGC, which probably always has a floor as a small resort. It's possible Poly will have 8-9X more points in the system than VGC.

 

[TinkAgainU]

They’re offering up to $41 per point off (18%) plus another $20 per point if you sell back your current year points (27% off total). That’s an incredibly aggressive offer by historical DVC standards.

You are very unlikely to get a lower price on Riviera again, IMO.

That doesn’t mean it’s a good deal, I still am not buying, but it’s a very deep discount.

Member Cruise currently at sea, BTW, was offered up to $48/point!

Haha, so take a cruise and save money! LMAO

 

[squirrel30]

I don’t gamble, but I’d bet on no.

Having said that, I’m manifesting a CCV fire sale. I don’t think they have the points to do it, but still sending my energy to see if it happens.

I could see that with as cheap as CCV is selling on the resale market they would make pretty good returns

 

[CastAStone]

It's acting nonsensically. Poly was until recently topping the most economical list with DVCresalemarket.com. Consistently cheaper than Copper Creek (probably as contracts were a bit older). But then it lost touch with reality because there is a FOMO market, that doesn't even make sense. As in it's currently being sold for 200pp+ to unsavvy buyers.

I think it will be down to the 120-130's within a couple years (if that's where the rest of the market is at). It's going to be the second biggest resort next to SSR. Volume dictates resale value way more than it is given credit for.

Sort of the opposite of the run up on VGC, which probably always has a floor as a small resort. It's possible Poly will have 8-9X more points in the system than VGC.

All of this. So much.

 

[BrianLo]

When Poly Towers goes on sale, that'll make 5 active sites for sale (AUL/ Poly Tower/ FWC /DLT/RIV). Do you think DVD might try to sell the rest of RIV at a fire sale? Has CCV ever been a fire sale before or after RIV went on sale?

No to the latter question, CCV went up towards sell out.

I think no to the former as well. RIV has no trouble with cash bookings and does not need to clear the way for incoming inventory.

VGF was unique in that it was all declared probably too early, they struggled to sell cash rates at that resort, which as the whole reason BPK flipped. They had Poly upcoming and VGF sales had massively slowed down. I think they reacted to opening sales as we all did and thought the resort would sell better than it did. Though the sale ended up also being probably a little too good and sold through I think faster than they intended.

I think Poly Tower is going to react the same way and all the pricing bets are being made by some upfront pent up demand, but not accounting for it being a relatively large 5+ million point offering. Though I think cash rates may be ok at the tower.

 

[OKW Lover]

Do you think DVD might try to sell the rest of RIV at a fire sale?

No. I seriously doubt they would even think about that. Imagine the reaction from the existing owners if they sold the rest at a significant discount.

And why would Disney want to hurry the sale anyway? They still make money by renting out the undeclared units.