Will I get through ROFR

[MommyBell08]

Just taking bets to kill the time while we wait. What are your guesses on if well get through ROFR? The points are $65pp...180 at AKV... No points for 2013, 155 points available for 2014, 2015 will have 180 points.

Here are the details.
Purchase price: $11,700.00

Full closing costs: $482.00

2014 Maintenance fees: $1,074.60

Less credit for used 2014 points: - $ 149.25
Total: $13,302.35

Any guesses? ill update when I find out! Wish us luck and Pixie Dust please!

 

[AppleDisneyDad]

Seeing that is the PPP I paid last year for a fully loaded contract of 160 points, I'd say your odds are good....

 

[MommyBell08]

Seeing that is the PPP I paid last year for a fully loaded contract of 160 points, I'd say your odds are good....

Thats awesome.. Thanks for the input!

 

[DVC Dude]

I would say you have a 99.9% chance of passing ROFR

 

[MommyBell08]

Lol! Really?!? Well i feel stupid... Thanks though! Glad it looks good for us, were ready to own again...we love AKV

 

[DVC Dude]

Just taking bets to kill the time while we wait. What are your guesses on if well get through ROFR? The points are $65pp...180 at AKV... No points for 2013, 155 points available for 2014, 2015 will have 180 points.

Here are the details.
Purchase price: $11,700.00

Full closing costs: $482.00

Lol! Really?!? Well i feel stupid... Thanks though! Glad it looks good for us, were ready to own again...we love AKV

no, you are not stupid....you did make a good buy, but if you were buying at $55pp then I might be concerned about ROFR. You are well within the range of contracts that pass ROFR.

I think any AKV with full 2012 + 2013 points and under $60pp is more likely to get snagged by ROFR.

 

[MommyBell08]

no, you are not stupid....you did make a good buy, but if you were buying at $55pp then I might be concerned about ROFR. You are well within the range of contracts that pass ROFR.

I think any AKV with full 2012 + 2013 points and under $60pp is more likely to get snagged by ROFR.

Thanks

 

[Nabas]

Lol! Really?!? Well i feel stupid... Thanks though! Glad it looks good for us, were ready to own again...we love AKV

Up through November, the highest priced contract to get ROFR'ed at AKV was $52/point. Everything above that passed ROFR in 2013.

Disney has been trying to sell AKV for 7 years and really wants to be done with the resort.

 

[DVC Dude]

Up through November, the highest priced contract to get ROFR'ed at AKV was $52/point. Everything above that passed ROFR in 2013.

Disney has been trying to sell AKV for 7 years and really wants to be done with the resort.

It is difficult to determine exact values from the ROFR database as $/pp is not totally accurate as the value of banked and current and future year points are significant.

For example, I would MUCH rather pay $65pp for a contract that has banked and current year and unborrowed year points over a stripped contract at $52pp

 

[Nabas]

It is difficult to determine exact values from the ROFR database as $/pp is not totally accurate as the value of banked and current and future year points are significant.

For example, I would MUCH rather pay $65pp for a contract that has banked and current year and unborrowed year points over a stripped contract at $52pp

I completely agree. Buyers sometimes underestimate the value of banked points. I tend to value them at $11/point because that's what points can be rented out at through the major DVC renters.

Still, looking at actual sales data gives folks an idea of what the bottom and median prices are.

So, if someone says (in today's market) that they wanted to offer $60/point at AKV, I'd suggest that current market data doesn't support that. 12 months ago, several were buying at $60/point or below.

Prices can change quickly in a volatile market. The risk of using actual closing prices from November is that they reflect a market that is 3-to-4 months old.

Overall, I suggest that anything below $70/point at AKV is a really good price right now.

I'm curious to see what will happen this spring. Will DVC heat up again or was 2013 a special case caused by convergence of several unique factors (e.g. improving economy, "free tickets" offer at BWV, across-the-board direct sale price hikes, opening of VGF).

 

[MarlaSingersLaundry]

I completely agree. Buyers sometimes underestimate the value of banked points. I tend to value them at $11/point because that's what points can be rented out at through the major DVC renters.

Still, looking at actual sales data gives folks an idea of what the bottom and median prices are.

So, if someone says (in today's market) that they wanted to offer $60/point at AKV, I'd suggest that current market data doesn't support that. 12 months ago, several were buying at $60/point or below.

Prices can change quickly in a volatile market. The risk of using actual closing prices from November is that they reflect a market that is 3-to-4 months old.

Overall, I suggest that anything below $70/point at AKV is a really good price right now.

I'm curious to see what will happen this spring. Will DVC heat up again or was 2013 a special case caused by convergence of several unique factors (e.g. improving economy, "free tickets" offer at BWV, across-the-board direct sale price hikes, opening of VGF).

I don't have anything of value to add other than I completely agree. OP-I think you are in a very good position to pass ROFR.

I was thinking the same thing about prices this spring. I received an email this morning, as I am sure many on this board have, from TTS stating they have a large volume of new listings and sales. Taking a quick look at all sales listings, there is a large amount of listings, more than I have seen in the past year or so. Right now there are about 90 AKV listings across all of the resellers. The lowest listed contract is $71, with many in the mid $70's. Due to the surplus, I think we can see a drop in prices at AKV in the next few months. The listed prices are lower than what we saw this past spring and summer.

Another thing I found interesting this morning, there are about 32 resale listings for VWL. During the spring of 2013, the most I would see in total listings at one time was around 10, sometimes dipping down to 4 total contracts listed across all major resellers. (We've been looking for a VWL contract for about 10 months, only reason I have this info). While the OP isn't purchasing VWL, I've found that the prices for VWL have dropped about $15 per point since spring 2013.

Best as I can tell, currently, there are about 520 listed properties. I am not certain how that compares to prior winter listings. Maybe someone else can weigh in on that. But it is more at one time than what I've seen in the past 10 months or so. If the trend continues, I think we will see a continued decrease in prices in the next couple of months.

 

[khaoskat]

Considering becoming DVC owners. Want to know what all the resale sites are. Not sure if you are allowed to post them, so feel free to PM me if not.

I know of a total of about 2, and would love to find others so we can find what we are looking for.

 

[DVSea]

Great info! Love to see opinions of what ppl think will pass ROFR!

 

[MarlaSingersLaundry]

Considering becoming DVC owners. Want to know what all the resale sites are. Not sure if you are allowed to post them, so feel free to PM me if not.

I know of a total of about 2, and would love to find others so we can find what we are looking for.

Sent you a PM. Good luck!

 

[Hilly716]

Have you heard if you passed yet? Good vibes!

 

[MommyBell08]

Not yet! I talked to our agent yesterday and she said we should know by the 6th, I'll update when I hear...

 

[MommyBell08]

We passed! Closing paperwork is in, we should be owners again soon!

 

[MagicJourney]

We passed! Closing paperwork is in, we should be owners again soon!

Congrats! Encouraging news for us, since we also have a AKV @ $65pp in ROFR .