Will flight for July 2014 go down ?

[MomtoBJSF]

We are going to WDW at the end of July 2014 , we are trying to decide if we should drive from Houston, TX, which would cost about $1000, including 2 night stay at an Holiday Inn express, or fly which is $2000 as of right now for a family of 5, I really don't want to 2K to fly down, hoping flight prices will drop.

Is it wishful thinking that flight prices will drop ?

 

[SandyinMonterey]

There's no way to say with certainty if flights will go down. We are going to WDW for Easter and when I started looking at airfare from California about 11 months out, airfare was in the mid $400's to almost $500. I thought since I was looking so far out, the airfare would naturally go down. It has before. Well, it didn't. It kept climbing and not only that, the times and connections all changed. Sometimes not getting us to MCO until the next day. I pulled the trigger when I saw many flights being sold out. For three of us, it cost $2000. Travel in July is when school is out so fares are generally higher. My rule of thumb now, if I see a fare that I'm comfortable with, I'm buying it then and there. I messed up this time.

 

[Ranger111]

Well, I certainly do not have a crystal to gaze into but the articles I have been reading in the national business press -- WSJ, Bloomberg, etal -- have all indicated one thing.

Prices for summer travel will be high and will stay high until at least mid-August.

And considering that global oil prices are rising rapidly and will probably continue to rise -- much because of the Ukraine situation -- it really does not encourage airlines to drop fares.

Just for "funs" I went to see what Tom Parsons says (longtime air travel guru):

2014 will offer some great airfares if you are flexible with your travel dates, but if you want to travel when the kids are out of school, expect to pay a premium. That’s just the plane facts, Jack.

Since I have to believe Tom and all the other pundits I have seen quoted know more than I do about air travel, I have to go with what he says.