Will Disney cruising return during 2021?

[disneygeek401]

One of the reasons I don't think cruising will return in 2021 is because I'm not sure they will be able to run cruises at a profit with the restrictions and policies needed under Covid. It's not just masks. I don't think they would be able to have deck parties, maybe even shows and if the parks are any indication, up close meet and greets are out too. Once you take that much away, what's the point? I suspect that enough people will feel that way that ships won't be full enough to turn a profit.

Well, WDW attendance is very low right now. And, they are not turning a profit, but they are at least getting something in the terms of $$$. The ships would probably lose more money sitting idle doing nothing in Port Canaveral than sailing on a 3 day cruise to the Bahamas and back with not a ton of people.

I am no financial expert but I can assure you they are losing $$$$$$$$$ every day those ships sit idle not sailing with passengers and it would probably be less of a loss if a cruise happened since there would be some people on board buying merch, drinks, etc. Although im no cruise financial expert.

 

[iannovich]

I saw in an interview (or possibly an earnings call) with one of the PowersThatBe for one of the other cruise lines (can't remember which) that for their newer ships they needed a 30% capacity to break even. For their older ships (that were less fuel efficient) it was between 40-60% depending on the ship. Although I'm sure that included gambling profits. I do think DCL is better off sailing with at least some passengers than sitting idle and all the money going out.

And if I'm on board playing bingo, they're guaranteed to turn a profit...

 

[Uncleromulus]

Should note I booked Fantasy for October 2021--HOTHS. My travel agent told me they are booking the full ship---if things aren't nearly normal by then, I fear we are all in trouble. We shall see!!!

 

[Snowwhyt]

One of the reasons I don't think cruising will return in 2021 is because I'm not sure they will be able to run cruises at a profit with the restrictions and policies needed under Covid. It's not just masks. I don't think they would be able to have deck parties, maybe even shows and if the parks are any indication, up close meet and greets are out too. Once you take that much away, what's the point? I suspect that enough people will feel that way that ships won't be full enough to turn a profit.

Although we are loosing retailers left and right currently, it’s a known fact many don’t turn a profit until Black Friday some years it’s the week of Christmas.
With that said, Disney had to give away Panama and repositioning cruises for a while until they started to get a following. January and hurricane season during back to school in September probably profitable now but at this point I agree with a few of the prior posters. Maybe you start slowly in the beginning but it will be less than a year before they are back to 100% once they start. Plus it’s nice to have the time to train the replacements for those that may have given up life at sea. So much can happen in a year.
I’m hoping that by taking my cruise in January they will give a nice rebooking offer. I’m pretty sure that sailing will be a disappointment, but I’m glad to spend time with my family and get the heck out of the house. (If we can get a vaccine for the at risk by then)
I totally understand your point of view, but I’m just seeing it from a different angles.

 

[otten]

Although we are loosing retailers left and right currently, it’s a known fact many don’t turn a profit until Black Friday some years it’s the week of Christmas.
With that said, Disney had to give away Panama and repositioning cruises for a while until they started to get a following. January and hurricane season during back to school in September probably profitable now but at this point I agree with a few of the prior posters. Maybe you start slowly in the beginning but it will be less than a year before they are back to 100% once they start. Plus it’s nice to have the time to train the replacements for those that may have given up life at sea. So much can happen in a year.
I’m hoping that by taking my cruise in January they will give a nice rebooking offer. I’m pretty sure that sailing will be a disappointment, but I’m glad to spend time with my family and get the heck out of the house. (If we can get a vaccine for the at risk by then)
I totally understand your point of view, but I’m just seeing it from a different angles.

Consider this, while they are losing money with the ships idle, in order to restart they have to get all that crew back and pay them. Unlike the parks they can’t really make quick staffing adjustments based on attendance. Then factor in that they paid a fortune to repatriate crew once it became clear that the situation wasn’t going to resolve anytime soon. Any restart comes at the very big risk of having to shut down again which would mean repeating that process again. And then there is also the risk of having an outbreak on a cruise and what that would mean for consumer confidence. I was on the last Disney cruise sailing. Starting again prematurely would be disastrous.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I've been pretty pessimistic on the pandemic with respect to most things. But I do think that cruising will return in 2021. Possibly not until the second half of 2021. By then there will likely be cheaper rapid testing in place, vaccines, better therapeutics...etc. You may have to jump through some hoops to cruise, but I think by mid-2021 it will be back in some form.

Will demand be there? I"m not so sure about that. I am honestly surprised that demand at the Disney parks is as low as it is.

 

[mickey0624]

I've been pretty pessimistic on the pandemic with respect to most things. But I do think that cruising will return in 2021. Possibly not until the second half of 2021. By then there will likely be cheaper rapid testing in place, vaccines, better therapeutics...etc. You may have to jump through some hoops to cruise, but I think by mid-2021 it will be back in some form.

Will demand be there? I"m not so sure about that. I am honestly surprised that demand at the Disney parks is as low as it is.

This isn't to mention that many places may not even allow american ships to dock....when docked how can you enforce people wearing masks if they get off the ship...and even if there is a vaccine by January or February, how long will it take to get everyone that wants the vaccine inoculated...this won't happen in weeks or even months...I may be in the minority but I really think 2022 is the more realistic time line.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

This isn't to mention that many places may not even allow american ships to dock....when docked how can you enforce people wearing masks if they get off the ship...and even if there is a vaccine by January or February, how long will it take to get everyone that wants the vaccine inoculated...this won't happen in weeks or even months...I may be in the minority but I really think 2022 is the more realistic time line.

MSC has "solved" the mask enforcement by requiring that, if a passenger wants to get off the ship, they can do so only on a ship sponsored (and chaperoned) excursion. In essence, in a "bubble" with no local contacts. Now whether that decision was solely a cruise line decision or a requirement from the countries being ported in, I don't know. But I could see it being something that countries would require.

 

[Snowwhyt]

Consider this, while they are losing money with the ships idle, in order to restart they have to get all that crew back and pay them. Unlike the parks they can’t really make quick staffing adjustments based on attendance. Then factor in that they paid a fortune to repatriate crew once it became clear that the situation wasn’t going to resolve anytime soon. Any restart comes at the very big risk of having to shut down again which would mean repeating that process again. And then there is also the risk of having an outbreak on a cruise and what that would mean for consumer confidence. I was on the last Disney cruise sailing. Starting again prematurely would be disastrous.

I am no CEO and definitely not a CFO.
But here’s my armchair play by play.
Without picking a date, I think they could start with the Dream, inoculate the crew with flu and Covid shots. Pull as much of the Dream crew as they can back and sprinkle in with the other three ships to cover any holes in the schedule. Start with a magic class 2-3 weeks later since a weeklong cruise would be a higher risk. Naturally start with a reduced capacity (here I’m a little shaky) many say 70%. I would like to see 30% for the first 3-4 cruises, 50% for the next 4-6 cruises then 70% if what ever problems that arose and needed changes have been safely addressed. Think of that as the soft opening WDW had prior to opening. First two parks then more. Use the wrist bands to address contact between later identified infected fellow cruisers (also why Disney has to inoculate their workers so that they don’t get sued) they already have a wristband program so hopefully they can put this into play quite quickly.
It’s extremely hard to pin down a start date. Will the CDC make sure cruise line employees are able to get the vaccine early since the industry has been hard hit? Well that’s a whole other debate. But staffers have the shots imagine the confidence people would have in Disney.
Disney’s not going to wait for 100% cure to the world, scientist say it’s not gonna happen anyway with mutation.
Today Germany tested a crowd at a pop concert. I assume our seating for the theater will be based on the findings. Several precautions were taken, copious amounts of data recorded before the concert, during the concert through wristbands, and I assume after. I left the article below for anyone interested
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3420158001Maybe we will start higher than 30% and with two ships right off the bat. If we let other lines do the dirty work for Disney, the statistics will be in Disney‘s favor. But it will all happen in 2021 I’m sure.

 

[dvcgirl67]

This isn't to mention that many places may not even allow american ships to dock....when docked how can you enforce people wearing masks if they get off the ship...and even if there is a vaccine by January or February, how long will it take to get everyone that wants the vaccine inoculated...this won't happen in weeks or even months...I may be in the minority but I really think 2022 is the more realistic time line.

These are all good points. And like I said, I've been pretty pessimistic with regard to almost everything COVID related. Cruising presents some serious roadblocks. There's no doubt about it. But it seems that they're slowly restarting causing in the Med. I saw a story last week about a ship departing out of Genoa with 70% of capacity. All passengers and crew received a test before boarding. So, we've got some canaries in the coal mine to see how it will go. There was some concern about the re-start in Italy as they've seen an uptick in cases recently. 600 on the day the ship departed. We're seeing 45,000 to 50,000 per day. Florida alone is seeing a 7-8 times the amount that the whole country of Italy is seeing.

As for a vaccine, well, does anyone think that there won't be massive hiccups as they roll that out, whenever that may be? Also, because of existing anti-vaxxers and the despicable attack on public health, who knows if enough Americans will even get the vaccine in sufficient numbers to even reach herd immunity. And herd immunity seems to be a short term phenomenon. The CDC says that those who have tested positive should only count on 3 months of immunity at this time. Still a long, long way to go until we're even close to "normal" again.

 

[Frozen2014]

I don't even know anymore. I think my March cruise won't be sailing. August is a maybe (50%?) and Dec, hopefully (70%), but also not sure. The virus is still there. The only thing that has changed is that we know that masks and social distancing help, but it's not a full stop. And how do you really enforce that on a ship? Even with a vaccine, they are saying it won't eliminate the virus (and of course, not everyone will get it, and it will take time to distribute it). IT's good to hear that some cruise lines in some parts of the world have started, but nothing has really changed. And each cruise is a gamble, hoping no one has it.

And of course the other problem is the ports opening up. If a place is doing well, do they want to let people in from all over the world where maybe there are cases? It's such a complex thing. The Canadian/US border isn't even open (or encouraged) for family travel right now.

I'm really etching to return to a cruise and get life back to normal. We always have a cruise booked to look forward to and I'm always counting down. So really hope some normalcy can get back and things running. (And just want to send my kids to school without daily fear of this virus!)

 

[randumb0]

Should note I booked Fantasy for October 2021--HOTHS. My travel agent told me they are booking the full ship---if things aren't nearly normal by then, I fear we are all in trouble. We shall see!!!

I noticed you mentioning your distaste for masks in another thread. If masks were required on your October cruise would you still go?

 

[monkeydawn]

Any restart comes at the very big risk of having to shut down again which would mean repeating that process again. And then there is also the risk of having an outbreak on a cruise and what that would mean for consumer confidence. I was on the last Disney cruise sailing. Starting again prematurely would be disastrous.

THIS.

 

[Budzooka]

It is my belief that people don't want to go and wear a mask for 6 to 8 hours in the Florida heat. I know that is the only reason keeping us from going and we're fanatical Disney fans. Maybe as the weather gets cooler, things may change.

I was extremely concerned about wearing a mask all day in the Florida heat last month when we decided to make the trip last month due to expiring DVC points and I was pleasantly surprised. I was expecting to be miserable, but I got used to it and hardly even noticed it was there.

I will absolutely cruise if masks are required and I would not have said that before our WDW trip.

 

[dvcgirl67]

When DCL finally opens up, we will absolutely cruise as well. Anything that gets in the way of DCL has to be stopped. Right now it's the unstable, mismanaged and misguided CDC. People may get used to masks but I still think the declining attendance at the parks is due to the mask policy. It's not from fear of catching Covid because there has been no documented outbreak due to the parks opening. Also, it's not from travel or quarantines because from polls and survey's I saw, 40% of season pass holders cancelled their season passes. Season pass holders tend to be Florida residents so no travel or quarantine issues there.

I think it's a stretch to say that people are avoiding the Disney Parks because of the mask policy, and not COVID. I wouldn't get on any plane right now. I also wouldn't eat indoors because I'd have to take my mask off. And I'd have to do those two things to enjoy myself at Disney Parks. And we have absolutely no way of knowing whether the opening of the Disney Parks has caused an uptick in cases because people are constantly coming and going all of the time. It's going to be much, much easier with cruise ships. If there are positive cases on board any ship we are very likely to hear about it because it will be on the news. And while I agree, that we're going to have to get used to living with COVID, I also agree with other posters who have said that heading out too soon on cruises could be detrimental to the industry. If people start getting sick on cruise ships, others will cancel.

I think that because of the horrible federal response to the pandemic in our country, that the US cruise industry is going to have to wait until we have a vaccine and are through our first COVID/Influenza season. The cruise industry should look at the overall lesson that the U.S. failure in handling the pandemic......stick together and open when it's safe. If some head back to sea too soon and they have outbreaks on board, it will impact the entire industry for longer than it needed to in the first place.

 

[T & R]

I think it's a stretch to say that people are avoiding the Disney Parks because of the mask policy, and not COVID. I wouldn't get on any plane right now.

Was just going by the high number of season pass holders who cancelled their passes. Those tend to be people who do not have to get on a plane or travel far.

 

[T & R]

The cruise industry should look at the overall lesson that the U.S. failure in handling the pandemic......stick together and open when it's safe. If some head back to sea too soon and they have outbreaks on board, it will impact the entire industry for longer than it needed to in the first place.

There will be outbreaks with or without cruising. The problem is the unequal response. 70,000 positive cases per day on land but if a few hundred show up positive from a cruise the government has a cow. The biggest double standard I have ever seen. If you're going to have a policy, it should be implemented equally. The virus doesn't care about loopholes or land vs. sea type businesses. It is shocking the cruise industry received a death sentence and will be forced out of business while the true Covid spreaders, the land businesses, get a free pass.

 

[DCSWO]

For those waiting on a return to “normal”, you may not cruise for years - but to each their own. My guess is the summer of 2021 if vaccines start rolling out in the spring. It wouldn’t bother me at all if DCL required proof of a vaccine prior to cruising - actually I would recommend it. A vaccine isn’t going to mean the end of this thing, but it will be a step in the right direction. I’m booked for the Norway cruise next Sept. and I plan on buying airline tickets this Nov/Dec. it’s a calculated risk, but so is driving to the airport.

As for those who are a hard NO if masks are required - Thank You! I love a less crowded ship.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Was just going by the high number of season pass holders who cancelled their passes. Those tend to be people who do not have to get on a plane or travel far.

That's a fair point. I think that as a season pass holder, you're looking for a lot of the extras to even bring you over there. We lived in Orlando from 2004-2007 for my husband's job. What we found was that living near Disney completely changed the way we experienced the parks. We were AP holders, but needed a special event to get us to head over there for the most part. So I can see why many AP holders were looking for refunds. Not enough frills for the locals.

 

[dvcgirl67]

There will be outbreaks with or without cruising. The problem is the unequal response. 70,000 positive cases per day on land but if a few hundred show up positive from a cruise the government has a cow. The biggest double standard I have ever seen. If you're going to have a policy, it should be implemented equally. The virus doesn't care about loopholes or land vs. sea type businesses. It is shocking the cruise industry received a death sentence and will be forced out of business while the true Covid spreaders, the land businesses, get a free pass.

Yes, I agree that cruising is taking a lot of heat, but it's already baked into our brains I'm afraid. Those images of the cruise ships off-short with no port wanting to take them. News stories with the passengers being interviewed about being stuck in their cabins for days on end with no idea what is going to happen, on and on. Those were early days, and yet those images will stick. Cruising will likely be similar to Disney in that they will certainly get hard core cruisers back with no difficulty. However, first time cruisers or more casual cruisers will take quite a bit longer to take to the high seas.