Will Disney build a new DVC property off site?

[AstroBlasters]

I don't think they're either/or, they're complementary, and they use each product to cross-sell the other. Cruise ships also have a shorter lifespan and are associated with an asset that fully depreciates / becomes unsellable, where as a DVC property is still on land, there's still something tangible at the end of the day.



The simplest answer IMO is that real estate has become prohibitively expensive for Disney to gamble on; the real estate market in general has become too efficient to extract excess returns relative to risk. For instance, Airbnb / VRBO fundamentally changed the vacation rental game and greatly increased customer expectations of a vacation rental. Only within the Disney bubble does Disney feel like they still have a differentiated product. And that's why I'd expect Disneyland Paris to eventually get a DVC property or two. Would also make the DVC product "more exotic" if you could visit Paris on your Copper Creek contract (without using your points on a hotel stay with poor conversion rates for your points).

I would think that a small Disney Paris DVC offering could be very popular….

 

[BayTower2010]

DVC/Disney are not good hoteliers. The only reason DVC does well is due to location to their parks. The big rumors are that HHI and Vero Beach will be sold as soon as the time share deeds expire. The big unknown is what Disney plans to do with Aulani. There is no economic breakdowns on how profitable Aulani has performed. My guess is that as soon as possible, Disney will sell Aulani. So my opinion is that Disney has no stomache for any more non park DVC's.

 

[Cfabar1]

Vero was an odd choice for a resort.... but basically I think they wanted something close to the parks that was beachfront... The main issue with Vero was, there isn't enough to do there... especially for a week... We love it, but how many meals are you going to eat at Wind and Waves... It isn't a surprise the second half of the property failed...

HHI didn't get built in the location they wanted initially... They ended up with some leftover plots in essence and hoped that the beach club would cut it... There's no restaurant, etc.

AUL I don't know well enough, but my understanding is it has location issues as well....

Then you run into the units themselves... DVC units have various issues - especially with the price attached to point costs... Terrible mattresses, etc.

I think the "studio-heavy" nature of DVC also makes the off-property resorts more challenging... You might not mind a studio when you're spending the whole day with your family in the theme parks... When there's nothing to do but a boring pool, you might feel differently...

Given that dollars are finite even for a firm like DIS, I don't see them green lighting a DVC in Colorado over a new cruise ship for example....

 

[AstroBlasters]

DVC/Disney are not good hoteliers. The only reason DVC does well is due to location to their parks. The big rumors are that HHI and Vero Beach will be sold as soon as the time share deeds expire. The big unknown is what Disney plans to do with Aulani. There is no economic breakdowns on how profitable Aulani has performed. My guess is that as soon as possible, Disney will sell Aulani. So my opinion is that Disney has no stomache for any more non park DVC's.

Tell me you haven been to Aulani without telling me you haven’t been to Aulani…. It’s packed and profitable….

 

[AstroBlasters]

Vero was an odd choice for a resort.... but basically I think they wanted something close to the parks that was beachfront... The main issue with Vero was, there isn't enough to do there... especially for a week... We love it, but how many meals are you going to eat at Wind and Waves... It isn't a surprise the second half of the property failed...

HHI didn't get built in the location they wanted initially... They ended up with some leftover plots in essence and hoped that the beach club would cut it... There's no restaurant, etc.

AUL I don't know well enough, but my understanding is it has location issues as well....

Then you run into the units themselves... DVC units have various issues - especially with the price attached to point costs... Terrible mattresses, etc.

I think the "studio-heavy" nature of DVC also makes the off-property resorts more challenging... You might not mind a studio when you're spending the whole day with your family in the theme parks... When there's nothing to do but a boring pool, you might feel differently...

Given that dollars are finite even for a firm like DIS, I don't see them green lighting a DVC in Colorado over a new cruise ship for example....

Ko Olina is a great spot and will be getting a lot of additional development over the next 10 years.

 

[Chuck S]

I think it is a longshot, though it is still a possibility that they'll do an offsite resort. It would need to be a popular location with Americans that isn't already over run with too many timeshares, and those are rare these days. It would need to be in a long term popular spot, not one that dies off quickly. Look at Branson, Missouri. It was THE hot spot for about 10 years, and now it is pretty much abandoned. It would also need to be a place that doesn't have political tensions, for instance, the Mexican coastline is still a popular destination and they could buy a private beach...but given the current politics between the countries, probably not a wise spot. And it would need to be relatively close to an international airport, if it is in a non-US locale, so a private Caribbean island is likely not a candidate.

 

[BayTower2010]

Tell me you haven been to Aulani without telling me you haven’t been to Aulani…. It’s packed and profitable….

Did not question whether of not the resort is busy. You are correct that I have not been to Aulani. Had a trip planned for this year with my two daughters and their families, but my son in law finally admitted he could not handle the flight due to an inner ear issue. So we canceled. The point is simply that we do not know how profitable is the resort. There is a competitor that has bought land next Aulani with plans of building a huge complex that quite frankly the plans are ugly. The plans were put on hold due to COVID. If the resort gets a green light, I think it would be a nail in the coffin with Disney getting out.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Did not question whether of not the resort is busy. You are correct that I have not been to Aulani. Had a trip planned for this year with my two daughters and their families, but my son in law finally admitted he could not handle the flight due to an inner ear issue. So we canceled. The point is simply that we do not know how profitable is the resort. There is a competitor that has bought land next Aulani with plans of building a huge complex that quite frankly the plans are ugly. The plans were put on hold due to COVID. If the resort gets a green light, I think it would be a nail in the coffin with Disney getting out.

I assure you that Aulani is in great shape, always full with families from around the world, and is fantastically profitable for Disney.

I also want to let you know that your facts are out of date. The chinese company that was going to build the Atlantis project sold the land to another developer. What they will build, who knows…. but it will just mean more options for people in the Ko Olina area….

 

[peder]

the Mexican coastline is still a popular destination and they could buy a private beach...but given the current politics between the countries, probably not a wise spot. And it would need to be relatively close to an international airport

There's really not much happening politically between the US and Mexico that would impact investment right now. And any big Disney / DVC expansion would be built on local audiences, not dependent on US tourists.

On the Mexico front specifically, I think Disney should be watching what Xcaret is doing very carefully and potentially build in the same area.

 

[Cfabar1]

I assure you that Aulani is in great shape, always full with families from around the world, and is fantastically profitable for Disney.

I also want to let you know that your facts are out of date. The chinese company that was going to build the Atlantis project sold the land to another developer. What they will build, who knows…. but it will just mean more options for people in the Ko Olina area….

Wish they would sell to Disney.... Aulani Phase II!

 

[Girlstar30]

Castaway Cay DVC would be great

 

[Cfabar1]

Castaway Cay DVC would be great

That would be pretty cool.... Sadly don't see it...

 

[Girlstar30]

That would be pretty cool.... Sadly don't see it...

Same

 

[CastAStone]

Did not question whether of not the resort is busy. You are correct that I have not been to Aulani. Had a trip planned for this year with my two daughters and their families, but my son in law finally admitted he could not handle the flight due to an inner ear issue. So we canceled. The point is simply that we do not know how profitable is the resort. There is a competitor that has bought land next Aulani with plans of building a huge complex that quite frankly the plans are ugly. The plans were put on hold due to COVID. If the resort gets a green light, I think it would be a nail in the coffin with Disney getting out.

There is a 0% chance that Aulani loses money. It’s impossible.

I’m sure it’s less profitable than WDW or DCL, but Disney doesn’t need Aulani to print cash, they just need to keep the lights on. But it has to be doing better than that: I’m sure they make great breakage income and the owners pay most of the resorts operating costs - and while Aulaninsales remain slow, in the nearly *15 years* it’s been for sale, they’ve managed to offload most of it.

 

[Cfabar1]

which isn't too bad....

people forget it took around 7 years to sell OKW... didn't sell out until 1998, and then they expanded and built more...

 

[peder]

Castaway Cay DVC would be great

I don't think DVC will have a spot on either of Disney's private islands, but NCL put proper villas at Great Stirrup Cay, which look clearly designed for overnight or even multiple night stays (I think they might not have AC? so probably not ideal for overnights at the moment). It seems like the cruiseline private islands are set to be something "more" in the not-too-distant future. Basically, why only use the island for a few hours a day? They're currently not realizing their full revenue potential.

 

[Cfabar1]

I don't think DVC will have a spot on either of Disney's private islands, but NCL put proper villas at Great Stirrup Cay, which look clearly designed for overnight or even multiple night stays (I think they might not have AC? so probably not ideal for overnights at the moment). It seems like the cruiseline private islands are set to be something "more" in the not-too-distant future. Basically, why only use the island for a few hours a day? They're currently not realizing their full revenue potential.

It is the next logical step for cruising… DCL would have some kinks to work through, but it is doable…

 

[CastAStone]

which isn't too bad....

people forget it took around 7 years to sell OKW... didn't sell out until 1998, and then they expanded and built more...

Eh…i think Disney probably expected to sell out Aulani in 5-7 years max. They can’t be thrilled with what happened.

But at the same time the point where they paid off the construction loans and made their money back was millions of points ago - every sale for years has been pure profit (same as any mostly sold timeshare)

 

[Girlstar30]

I don't think DVC will have a spot on either of Disney's private islands, but NCL put proper villas at Great Stirrup Cay, which look clearly designed for overnight or even multiple night stays (I think they might not have AC? so probably not ideal for overnights at the moment). It seems like the cruiseline private islands are set to be something "more" in the not-too-distant future. Basically, why only use the island for a few hours a day? They're currently not realizing their full revenue potential.

People would definetely go!!

 

[Chuck S]

It is the next logical step for cruising… DCL would have some kinks to work through, but it is doable…

The problem with having a DVC as part of a private island that is reached, basically, by DCL only is DVC resorts HAVE to function at near 100% capacity year round. I just don't see that happening on a private island. DCL could finance and build a limited use resort, if they wanted to do so, but I just don't see it for DVC.