Will Corona Virus Force Lifting of Resale Restrictions at Riviera?

[BWV Dreamin]

With the economic downturn at Disney, do you think this will force Disney to lift the resales restrictions at Riviera to jump start sales?

 

[Sandisw]

No, I don’t think it will. I think they will increase the incentives to help with sales,

Personally, I don’t think the restrictions have had that big of an effect on sales. While it may not be setting records, it has been staying competitive.

 

[CarolMN]

No. I don't think the restrictions had as much impact on sales as many here thought ( hoped) they would. IMO, incentives are likely to have a bigger impact, anyway.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Restrictions are a 25-year endgame. This is a temporary dip. Even with a focus on current balance sheets, the restrictions were not a current-time gambit.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Those incentives are gonna have to be pretty good forthcoming. I see many discounts being offered via CRO to get people to come back to Disney. It may also really prolong the eventual sellout at Riviera, pushing back other DVC projects ( or possibly cancelling them). Reversing the restrictions would certainly garner immediate sales.

 

[RivShore]

Restrictions are a 25-year endgame. This is a temporary dip.

True, it was a long term decision that will unlikely be changed due to a (hopefully short) recession. I will say that if this downturn doesn't make them pull them back, nothing will!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

True, it was a long term decision that will unlikely be changed due to a (hopefully short) recession. I will say that if this downturn doesn't make them pull them back, nothing will!

I am not so convinced this is a done deal. Lots of disposable income is gone. Some permanently. I see this event way worse than 9/11.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Restrictions are a 25-year endgame. This is a temporary dip. Even with a focus on current balance sheets, the restrictions were not a current-time gambit.

No one really knows the implications of this. They certainly left some room to roll them back if they wanted to. Honestly I believe their plan was to implement them and take a wait and see approach. Maybe not after 2 years but after Riviera and Reflections they would see if it was going to harm their newer restricted properties enough that it makes their newer properties less appealing. It seems to be making the older DVC properties more appealing also, since those sales numbers seem to be up. As much as I hate the restrictions, I think they are here to stay, they weren't stopping the resort from selling before so why take them out, just increase incentives by lowering buy-in price. I also believe that we will see a upgrade fee down the line to remove restrictions and bring you from a white card to a blue card. That I believe could close the gap on value, Disney gets some lost revenue back from resale sales and it doesn't totally kill the market for resale for those that don't want only 1 resort to stay at.

 

[poofyo101]

If they get rid of the restrictions, I will buy.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

No one really knows the implications of this. They certainly left some room to roll them back if they wanted to. Honestly I believe their plan was to implement them and take a wait and see approach. Maybe not after 2 years but after Riviera and Reflections they would see if it was going to harm their newer restricted properties enough that it makes their newer properties less appealing. It seems to be making the older DVC properties more appealing also, since those sales numbers seem to be up. As much as I hate the restrictions, I think they are here to stay, they weren't stopping the resort from selling before so why take them out, just increase incentives by lowering buy-in price. I also believe that we will see a upgrade fee down the line to remove restrictions and bring you from a white card to a blue card. That I believe could close the gap on value, Disney gets some lost revenue back from resale sales and it doesn't totally kill the market for resale for those that don't want only 1 resort to stay at.

We are looking at quick cash. That is what lifting the restrictions would provide. It is going to take Disney YEARS to recover from this.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

We are looking at quick cash. That is what lifting the restrictions would provide. It is going to take Disney YEARS to recover from this.

How much cash would this really generate with the parks closed? I'd take a guess and say most sales are from booths in the Parks, at hotels, and on cruises. Sales were bad before despite what most say. Sales aren't down due to this, they are down because people are losing their jobs. Besides if Disney was in trouble I don't think they'd continue to pay employees if it was that bad.

 

[bookwormde]

my guess is that DVD does not want to fire sale so if sales get close to 50k/month I think it will be on the table

A do think that the restriction have had an impact on the level of add ons from existing members in addition to several iother factors

 

[ChipNdale8887]

my guess is that DVD does not want to fire sale so if sales get close to 50k/month I think it will be on the table

A do think that the restriction have had an impact on the level of add ons from existing members in addition to several iother factors

I agree. If sales drop to 50k a month then thats a problem. But I also don't think they need to discount it down to a fire sale. They just need a larger incentive, heck the incentive for add ons was larger in february than it is for March. Plus, you can't expect sales numbers to stay the same during all of this. Everyone is being hurt by this. Selling tons of Riviera points doesn't solve it either. Budgets will be cut, projects cancelled and defunded to limit the losses.

Id also guess that a majority of sales are not from Add On's but from new member sales in the Parks, Hotels, and Cruises at sales booths. Especially for new members buying into Riviera where the implication of the Restrictions aren't as known. It'll be interesting. From what I have heard, most DVC Sales agents aren't even working now, and offices are closed.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

How much cash would this really generate with the parks closed? I'd take a guess and say most sales are from booths in the Parks, at hotels, and on cruises. Sales were bad before despite what most say. Sales aren't down due to this, they are down because people are losing their jobs. Besides if Disney was in trouble I don't think they'd continue to pay employees if it was that bad.

Not saying this would happen with parks closed. But when they reopen, LOTS of issues will need to be addressed that will affect profits. Crowd control ( is social distancing a mainstay?), numbers aloud inside restaurants, what attractions will be open? Will shows start back up at later dates? WDW will not reopen full on. There will have to be calculated openings, And that equates to lower profits. I see new DVC sales the LAST thing people will purchase. To keep it viable, nixing restrictions will have an immediate impact.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Not saying this would happen with parks closed. But when they reopen, LOTS of issues will need to be addressed that will affect profits. Crowd control ( is social distancing a mainstay?), numbers aloud inside restaurants, what attractions will be open? Will shows start back up at later dates? WDW will not reopen full on. There will have to be calculated openings, And that equates to lower profits. I see new DVC sales the LAST thing people will purchase. To keep it viable, nixing restrictions will have an immediate impact.

It'll be interesting to see what they do. I honestly don't think they will discount point prices too heavily and create more losses but throw in extras on something else that they can afford to better take losses on like Annual Passes, Water Park Tickets, Meal Plans, etc.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I keep saying this, but the average direct buyer doesn't tend to even know there is a resale market, let alone the valuations of points in resale. Removing restriction is not going to have significant impact through their largest direct sales market.

 

[EYL]

I am hoping for them to lift it, but I don't think they would. With all the availability issues now if you're trying to move a reservation during the resort closure, imagine if you owned resale Riviera?

 

[Sandisw]

I thought of another aspect. There is a chance that the resale market will take a down turn as well,

Disney could use this to their advantage to point out that there is no guarantee and that it’s not really a huge issue.

I think most people who are not buying are the ones who are already members.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I thought of another aspect. There is a chance that the resale market will take a down turn as well,

Disney could use this to their advantage to point out that there is no guarantee and that it’s not really a huge issue.

I think most people who are not buying are the ones who are already members.

The Only thing with this is if the Gap becomes wider and wider the bigger deal you get via resale. Though if you are talking about just Riviera then there is no problem but the larger the gap is between Direct Versus Resale the harder it is to justify. People are becoming even more tech savy now than in the 2000's so more and more people will do their own research on DVC and eventually will come to the Resale market. It's the same thing that has happened to the travel industry and travel agents. With more technology in people's hands the more informed they are.

If direct prices are over $220 a point and resale are dropping to 60-120 then they might have a problem. And I'm not talking just Hilton Head and Vero Beach in the 70-100 range either.

I can only imagine that the Resale Market and percentage resale of all points is growing more and more every year. This is why Disney is trying to curb the resale market. They can't touch the legendary 14 resorts really so they are trying a new method. Now I'm just rambling on. lol

 

[ChipNdale8887]

You know I was just thinking of an interesting idea. Say they remove the restrictions but don't up the incentives. No lost revenue but uptick in sales. Though, how many Sales would be the interesting data. It would have to be continuous amount of sales and nice amount to stop the restriction idea and at that I just don't know. But honestly who knows. I don't think anyone really knows where this is going. You can tell for sure Disney doesn't know either. DVC especially isn't sure what to do with all of this and people losing points. The uncertainty is off the charts and especially for the Travel Industry. So who knows really. The Economy has been so good lately, itll be interesting to see what happens. Disney themselves have been crazy successful, until now. Before this virus they've been raising prices left and right, raising costs on everything, tickets, food, cruises, resort costs, point costs, etc. That...just all came to a halt and if this does become a recession because of so many lost jobs(the stimulus check isn't going to last long at all) people not being able to pay mortgages.

It's going to hurt the travel industry more than we may realize.