Will Availability Issue Last Forever?

[dmcfa2504]

New to DVC. Waiting on ROFR and trying to deep dive into topics. I looked through the threads and saw some on availability, but I’m wondering out loud a bit.

I understand Covid really has impacted availability. With people not being able to travel they have more points banked, which leads to an abundance of points going into this year.

I’m just wondering what you all predict the timeline might be for this to correct itself? Since you can play this game of using last years points while banking the current years points, could this go on forever?

Forever is probably a bit dramatic, but I’m still wondering.

 

[PalmettoPath]

It's hard to say. I would guess within the next two years it should start to return to "normal" BUT that is assuming no more unexpected surprises rearing their heads and mucking things up a bit more. Personally I think the banked points due to Covid -- coupled with 50th anniversary demand -- has had a big impact on demand, as we all experience it right now.

 

[Sandisw]

There are certain times of year and room types at certain resorts that have had issues with booking even before Covid.

Mid September to mid January is a popular DVC time and many if not most owners book at 11 months, Studios at CCV, SV rooms as BLT, BWV, RIV, VGF and CL/Value at AKV go fast.

So those will continue…but the rest of the year which has seen a higher number of rooms go faster, should return back…unless owners got in the habit of booking farther out and realize it is needed now.

 

[Brian Noble]

Since you can play this game of using last years points while banking the current years points, could this go on forever?

It could, but it is very unlikely. Every year there are points that go unused. I know that's hard to believe, but that's where "breakage" comes from. At some point, breakage will bleed the excess from the system.

 

[DVCsloth]

Even right at 11 months 8 a.m. lately my 2 home VGF, CCV, resorts are already booked for studios in December. I'm sure BCV, Riviera, BWV are similar. I wish they would figure out how to stop walking. Luckily, we have switched to 1br's. Just hoping the 2 million points being added to VGF doesn't make the 1br and larger difficult to get at 11 months. Waiting to see how it unfolds before judgement.

 

[RKS03]

Even right at 11 months 8 a.m. lately my 2 home VGF, CCV, resorts are already booked for studios in December. I'm sure BCV, Riviera, BWV are similar. I wish they would figure out how to stop walking. Luckily, we have switched to 1br's. Just hoping the 2 million points being added to VGF doesn't make the 1br and larger difficult to get at 11 months. Waiting to see how it unfolds before judgement.

At the very least it’ll make studios easier to get in VGF. Plus if some new buyers purchased VGF for SAP that could open up availability, perhaps. Personally we bought direct and will stay a lot at VGF but definitely will still want to goto BWV and maybe check out some resorts we haven’t visited before.

 

[dmcfa2504]

Thanks all!

 

[DebbieB]

Even right at 11 months 8 a.m. lately my 2 home VGF, CCV, resorts are already booked for studios in December. I'm sure BCV, Riviera, BWV are similar. I wish they would figure out how to stop walking. Luckily, we have switched to 1br's. Just hoping the 2 million points being added to VGF doesn't make the 1br and larger difficult to get at 11 months. Waiting to see how it unfolds before judgement.

I’ve been a member since 1999 and early December has always been that way, long before walking. DVC has tried to remedy it some by pushing it into a higher season but it’s still popular.

 

[DVCsloth]

I’ve been a member since 1999 and early December has always been that way, long before walking. DVC has tried to remedy it some by pushing it into a higher season but it’s still popular.

We bought VGF in 2014 and it has gotten worse since then. I think now that you can modify online right away and a lot more people know how to walk it's worse. We originally bought for studios but now we book 1br's and it has been easier to book. Hoping the new studio only addition doesn't make 1br hard at 11 months. If it does, I'll just sell it and move on, count it as a lesson learned.

 

[lowlight]

We bought VGF in 2014 and it has gotten worse since then. I think now that you can modify online right away and a lot more people know how to walk it's worse. We originally bought for studios but now we book 1br's and it has been easier to book. Hoping the new studio only addition doesn't make 1br hard at 11 months. If it does, I'll just sell it and move on, count it as a lesson learned.

I know that it's an extremely unpopular opinion on these forums because many people here do it religiously, but (in my opinion) walking needs to go. It wasn't a huge deal when it was a niche thing done by those "in the know", but it's pretty widespread right now and it's super frustrating. I don't want to get into the walking game. I understand why people do it, but it's incredibly annoying for everyone not walking, and I'd imagine it's tiresome being the person who walks as well. It's like those ADR trading groups on Facebook- it's not illegal, but it is definitely lame and makes it 10x harder for people to get what they want by doing it the way it's intended to be done.

 

[npatellye]

We originally bought for studios but now we book 1br's and it has been easier to book.

Same. We also originally bought for studios, but got spoiled by our first two trips being in 1 and 2 bedrooms. We tried a studio for a few nights and decided it wasn’t for us ever again. Since we aren’t competing for studios, we’ve never had an issue with availability, even at Thanksgiving and marathon weeks. We’ve been able to stay during those times at BLT, BCV, and (in November 2022) BWV.

I do think competition for studios overall is rough.

 

[RoseGold]

Limited availability is the point of the system. Asking this question makes me wonder if you knew what you bought. There are and always have been more popular rooms and traveling times. That’s the point of the whole deal.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I have to question what you're calling limited.

If you're expecting to book freely inside 7 months, I would never expect that again, and not due to pandemic. Due to Poly bungalows, CCV cabins, and Aulani promos. The system's been loaded with points based on units people don't book.

 

[dmcfa2504]

Limited availability is the point of the system. Asking this question makes me wonder if you knew what you bought. There are and always have been more popular rooms and traveling times. That’s the point of the whole deal.

I appreciate you looking out for me. I have read/heard from quite a few folks that availability has been more of an issue due to folks having extra points from not traveling. I'm not expecting to just book any accommodation at 2, 5 or 7 months out.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

Even right at 11 months 8 a.m. lately my 2 home VGF, CCV, resorts are already booked for studios in December. I'm sure BCV, Riviera, BWV are similar. I wish they would figure out how to stop walking. Luckily, we have switched to 1br's. Just hoping the 2 million points being added to VGF doesn't make the 1br and larger difficult to get at 11 months. Waiting to see how it unfolds before judgement.

We, VGF 1.0, owners, are gonna get poned. Never stayed in a studio and never plan to. Not cool at all.

 

[New Mouse]

New to DVC. Waiting on ROFR and trying to deep dive into topics. I looked through the threads and saw some on availability, but I’m wondering out loud a bit.

I understand Covid really has impacted availability. With people not being able to travel they have more points banked, which leads to an abundance of points going into this year.

I’m just wondering what you all predict the timeline might be for this to correct itself? Since you can play this game of using last years points while banking the current years points, could this go on forever?

Forever is probably a bit dramatic, but I’m still wondering.

By simple math, yes this will stretch on forever to some level. Unless Disney eats a good amount of their points, there is nothing to stop the forever banking of the additional points that flooded the system.

 

[New Mouse]

I have to question what you're calling limited.

If you're expecting to book freely inside 7 months, I would never expect that again, and not due to pandemic. Due to Poly bungalows, CCV cabins, and Aulani promos. The system's been loaded with points based on units people don't book.

This. Disney artificially creates availability issues by building units most people didn't want or wouldn't use.