Will a Rental Crackdown Reset DVC Resale Prices?

[Genie+]

But, why do they walk? In most cases it’s the point difference. Don’t you think that if BW SV and P/G view were only 1 or 2 point different a night we’d see people still walk those rooms to the degree they do? Nope.

More accurately balancing the point charts on demand would be a great solution.

 

[Sandisw]

More accurately balancing the point charts on demand would be a great solution.

And that’s why I think the issue is the imbalance and not as much walking in and of itself.

Think about it…those that own at SSR can walk anytime and it’s not even going to be noticed or impact anything.

If DVC really does being to monitor memberships more closely and those businesses are curtailed, then my guess is some will be less upset.

 

[jason423]

Because there is no proof that every single person who is getting rooms that have been walked are only walkers

I have gotten rooms plenty of times in early December for hard to get RIV and VGf rooms without waking, but was clear they were walked

Currently have two SV VgF studios and two SV RIV studios right at 11 months for December. Those rooms were also being walked. I just was one of the people who got it.

As someone who travels at times in December we have had the same experience. For someone who is a non-walker who is booking with the exceptions of the busiest weeks its usually pretty easy to simply look at the calendar on the DVC website for nights available and figure out what is or is not being walked by seeing what days are blacked out. The odds are that room is going to open up for your full trip in the next few days, making it more of a 10 month and 27 days type window. Its a pain because you have to keep checking each morning but the rooms will open as the walkers walk out of the dates you want.

The main exception for us in December is new years. For this upcoming year we could not sneak in on a standard or bw view studio as it would vanish just after the 8AM time. Basically the majority of walking looked like it was done to ensure dates on the 30th and 31st of December. Now our trip includes NYE but if you wanted either of those views pretty much anytime between the 23rd and 29th or 1st through whenever in January you would have the same odds as anyone else you just need to get in when the walkers walk out. They were all available during the course of the day a few days after the 11 month mark. By now they are all gone, or at least the standards would be, but if our trip didnt include those two days we would have had no problem getting them

 

[mgarbowski]

As soon as I saw just Mark's first line, it came to me immediately. My brain works in strange ways.

FWIW I wrote that line thinking of it as a very indirect Pogo reference. Interesting to see it inspire your homage.

Have you been watching the WATW documentary on Netflix?

 

[Brian Noble]

No, I haven't. Just a random neuron fire. I also appreciate the Pogo reference.

 

[kboo]

More accurately balancing the point charts on demand would be a great solution.

The balancing only goes so far: they made Christmas week at VGF MORE expensive! Still people go. and there are only so many 2br there, etc etc ... I did say earlier that another way to reduce demand would be to take away the gingerbread house and decorations at VGF ...

The thing with the commercial renters isn't necessarily that they're the walkers - they might not be. And it's pretty obvious that everyone's beef is with walkers for particular units/views at particular resorts at particular times of year. But what commercial renters are doing is wringing the use out of every point, when maybe before there would have been many thousands of unused points sitting in loaded contracts for sale, and not used for booking. It may even be worse than that because if they're stripping and borrowing, there's many more than 1 year's worth of DVC points competing to book reservations that year. If there were no commercial renters, only owners booking for themselves or others, someone's bucket list trip of 3 years worth of points is going to be balanced by someone else banking their points for the bucket list trip next year, and so on. On average across all points and resorts and room categories there is going to be about 1 year's worth of points being used each year.

As I type - I realize - we're probably still adjusting from the covid closures. points ordinarily would've expired got carried forward because resorts were closed, a LOT more people were banking because you couldn't go, or because the experience would be different. Although revenge travel has died down, I'm not sure the system has reached equilibrium. A lot of people probably decided for their own reasons to sell, if their contracts were loaded, they got stripped ... etc etc

I know on my own part, we were using banked points well into 2021/2022 - and are finally maybe reset ... we had banked 2019 and current 2020 points - we used a ton of points, most of these trips were a week or longer. We've never borrowed points, usually banking some to the next year. but for most of the Dec 2020 - 2022 we were booking trips just to use our banked points from the year before.

So from 2021 forward - probably a lot more points in the system being used for booking. Slowing down commercial renters at all times would reduce by 1000s the number of points we are competing with. And still - maybe it's not that bad that the only complaints are still for the same units/views/times of year that people have been complaining about for years.

 

[crisi]

And that’s why I think the issue is the imbalance and not as much walking in and of itself.

Think about it…those that own at SSR can walk anytime and it’s not even going to be noticed or impact anything.

If DVC really does being to monitor memberships more closely and those businesses are curtailed, then my guess is some will be less upset.

Its more than the point imbalance. Its also about a shortage of certain room types - STUDIOS.

Back when DVC had a minimum buy in and buying a small amount of points to have eleven month advantage wasn't common - we still (as someone pointed out in one of these threads) would call day by day for certain rooms at certain times. Notably BWV and BCV during Food and Wine.

But then something big changed. DVC implemented resale restrictions, and now buying a certain small number of points direct from Disney got you discounts. So there are a whole lot of people out there that wanted both discounts and an eleven month window at certain resorts - and the small number of points they tended to buy meant those people needed to be booking studios at those resorts.

So we have a ton of people with - what was it at first - 25 point contracts? Then 50 points. At places like BWV and BCV and VGF - smaller resorts where the eleven month window was important. And those contracts at BWV become especially problematic given that studio bookings impact two bedroom bookings - leaving the "too expensive" one bedrooms floating out there. (A solid point adjustment for one bedrooms at BWV - raising studio prices to compensate - would help, but probably send people who bought really small BWV contracts into a frenzy.)

When Disney designed the resorts the thought most families would book a "home away from home" unit, and the booking patterns become most people wanting a "bargain on a hotel room" - and then selling points that enable the "bargain on a hotel room" - well.......turns out there are people who really need to walk into their BCV studio, because there isn't any way they have the points for the upcharge for a one bedroom, and there are more people who want that studio than studios available - a whole bunch of them who bought specifically for studios and specifically for studios during a few months a year. At a resort like BCV or VGF, the studio problem doesn't impact two bedrooms to the same extent, but there are still too few studios.

People aren't walking into studios at the Poly. You don't need to because every room at the Poly is a studio (except the Cabanas) and there enough studios for owners to get the eleven month window at.

 

[Sandisw]

The balancing only goes so far: they made Christmas week at VGF MORE expensive! Still people go. and there are only so many 2br there, etc etc ... I did say earlier that another way to reduce demand would be to take away the gingerbread house and decorations at VGF ...

The thing with the commercial renters isn't necessarily that they're the walkers - they might not be. And it's pretty obvious that everyone's beef is with walkers for particular units/views at particular resorts at particular times of year. But what commercial renters are doing is wringing the use out of every point, when maybe before there would have been many thousands of unused points sitting in loaded contracts for sale, and not used for booking. It may even be worse than that because if they're stripping and borrowing, there's many more than 1 year's worth of DVC points competing to book reservations that year. If there were no commercial renters, only owners booking for themselves or others, someone's bucket list trip of 3 years worth of points is going to be balanced by someone else banking their points for the bucket list trip next year, and so on. On average across all points and resorts and room categories there is going to be about 1 year's worth of points being used each year.

As I type - I realize - we're probably still adjusting from the covid closures. points ordinarily would've expired got carried forward because resorts were closed, a LOT more people were banking because you couldn't go, or because the experience would be different. Although revenge travel has died down, I'm not sure the system has reached equilibrium. A lot of people probably decided for their own reasons to sell, if their contracts were loaded, they got stripped ... etc etc

I know on my own part, we were using banked points well into 2021/2022 - and are finally maybe reset ... we had banked 2019 and current 2020 points - we used a ton of points, most of these trips were a week or longer. We've never borrowed points, usually banking some to the next year. but for most of the Dec 2020 - 2022 we were booking trips just to use our banked points from the year before.

So from 2021 forward - probably a lot more points in the system being used for booking. Slowing down commercial renters at all times would reduce by 1000s the number of points we are competing with. And still - maybe it's not that bad that the only complaints are still for the same units/views/times of year that people have been complaining about for years.

You are right that they are constrained by a set number of points at a resort and can’t change what the holidays are to people wanting to visit

So, I don’t think you will ever get things to balance perfectly.

However, making the rooms that are being reported as being consistently grabbbed by owners who then rent for commercial purposes more expensive , and those dates are popular, it will cut down on the demand, which cuts down on the need to even consider a walk.

Let’s take VGF SV deluxe and resort studios. They are 132 a week in December but 172 in February.

Flip those around and it will look different for December. Or, instead of a 132 weekly cost for SV vs LV at 157. Make it closer instead and maybe 140 and 149 and it changes too.

 

[kboo]

Let’s take VGF SV deluxe and resort studios. They are 132 a week in December but 172 in February.

Flip those around and it will look different for December. Or, instead of a 132 weekly cost for SV vs LV at 157. Make it closer instead and maybe 140 and 149 and it changes too.

I read that and went until I realized you meant early December. I don't think we are saying different things, but:

SV/LV studios: 132/157 week in early December: MVMCP, gingerbread house, holiday decorations, low crowds
SV/LV studios: 206/244 over Christmas week: massive crowds, no MVMCP, and THOSE studios are also walked, as are the 2br.

You could raise the ## to something closer to the Christmas week points and people would still want to go, because WDW is magical then. Now I am *not* suggesting any reduction in the holiday spirit or decorations, or raising early December point costs to match Christmas week, but there's a reason why all of December gets walked at VGF, and why we bought more points at VGF even though RIV was a better deal and we love both resorts.

Ultimately agree with you, that much of this is exacerbated by resale restrictions, people buying "just enough" contracts for studios and being constrained to booking studios.

I'm sure Disney has the ## but I wonder what the breakage # of points (if that's the right term) - average # of points that expire without getting used. Before owning DVC I used to stalk the "last minute rooms" (breakage rooms) on the DVC site and there used to be plenty of SSR and OKW, and now there's hardly anything. (back to wringing use of every point v. resale contracts being loaded... )

 

[Sandisw]

I read that and went until I realized you meant early December. I don't think we are saying different things, but:

SV/LV studios: 132/157 week in early December: MVMCP, gingerbread house, holiday decorations, low crowds
SV/LV studios: 206/244 over Christmas week: massive crowds, no MVMCP, and THOSE studios are also walked, as are the 2br.

You could raise the ## to something closer to the Christmas week points and people would still want to go, because WDW is magical then. Now I am *not* suggesting any reduction in the holiday spirit or decorations, or raising early December point costs to match Christmas week, but there's a reason why all of December gets walked at VGF, and why we bought more points at VGF even though RIV was a better deal and we love both resorts.

Ultimately agree with you, that much of this is exacerbated by resale restrictions, people buying "just enough" contracts for studios and being constrained to booking studios.

I'm sure Disney has the ## but I wonder what the breakage # of points (if that's the right term) - average # of points that expire without getting used. Before owning DVC I used to stalk the "last minute rooms" (breakage rooms) on the DVC site and there used to be plenty of SSR and OKW, and now there's hardly anything. (back to wringing use of every point v. resale contracts being loaded... )

Except I can go in today and get a 2 bedroom at VGF for mid and late December and it’s 10 less fhan months.

So, while walking may have happened, it obviously was not enough to lock anyone out of getting one who really wanted it and kept trying around the 11 month mark for that time period. Or, had a waitlist put in.

And, as you say, people want to go in December and that doesn’t change but to think that the stopping of walking for a place like VGF will somehow make it better for people? It won’t and it’s why this subject comes up right around this time every year and then settles in.

 

[lowlight]

Except I can go in today and get a 2 bedroom at VGF for mid and late December and it’s 10 less fhan months.

You know the most walked weeks at VGF are first two weeks of December. How are those looking?

 

[Brian Noble]

The few reservations I looked at were posted at around $29 per point.

The movement towards confirmed reservations (of studios) and away from the "price per point" rental model was inevitable. That's because DVC under-pointed the studios and over-pointed the 1BRs, making studios a screaming good deal in most cases.

At $29/pt, many rentals would be underwater. I have a week coming up in a 1BR, for which $29/pt would be less than a 10% discount off rack---and Disney was discounting that room 20-25% to the general public, depending on when you booked it.

But, a confirmed reservation at a studio at the same resort and with the same view, at $29/pt, is a 32% discount. And this is probably not the best use of points, but it's definitely low enough that there's a chance that someone will bite.

So, if you are someone who wants to rent some points, which will you do? Rent on a price-per-point basis and make maybe $22, or rent a confirmed reservation and make $29?

 

[KimMcGowan]

Bought many years ago. For the first 7 years or so always got a 2 br value in January at AKV. Booked about 11 months out give or take a couple days. Took a year or two break from that, Covid hit, and since then 2BR value is non existent even 11 month 8 am. When we bought, the online system wasn’t something you could change on (correct me if wrong but don’t even think we could book online) Thus, WALKING was effectively impossible. Yes, you could call every morning for months to change, but no big contract renting companies could walk the volume they are currently doing. Disney created this problem when they changed internet booking. This was not fair to the average AKV contract holder as walking materially changes the access for value rooms from what it was when we bought the contract. Big point owners have advantages over the average contract. They created walking and I believe they need to change their system to eliminate something that wasn’t there originally and was not the intent of equal access for all owners 11 months out.

Some posts say, people just want what’s cheap. The two sell out categories at AKV at 11 months are value and concierge lowest and highest point costs. So no, people don’t want just what’s cheap. Values are also not as a rule ‘smaller’ than non-value. But values are only at Jambo, which has smaller size villas than Kindani.

When we bought, again many years ago, our salesperson had a lot of years selling for Disney and was a very high seller. (Retired several years ago). We were clearly told any exchange of money for points was strictly prohibited as it was considered commercial use. Yes, told that, I understand that isn’t exactly the contract wording. We were shocked when after owning for quite a few years, we found online forums listing points for ‘rent’. Have never rented out or rented from. IMO Disney should stick to what they said and eliminate renting. I’m sure some average contracts doing a few points here and there would be hard to catch, but there’s no excuse for Disney’s ignoring the large commercial renters.

Simply asking that the product represented is what we have to use, non walkable or rentable. For most average contract holders, DVC was a major investment and an exercise in trust that Disney would keep the product true to their representation.

I am not trying to discredit what you are saying but if the contract says one thing and your guide told you something different than the contract is the rule you go by.

 

[KimMcGowan]

This is simply untrue. Why on earth would anyone ever choose to walk a reservation if there was no advantage gained?

I am sorry but i think you are not correct (although I maybe should have been a little clearer). A walker has to start some day. At that time they have no advantage over you.
You can still get the room if you are lucky. We just stayed in a 2 bedroom at CC for the first week in December. I didn’t walk or piece together the reservation. I made it at 11 months at 7 am.

 

[Sandisw]

Thread closed because I gave several reminders not to discuss specific info out there,

ETA. Clarifying decision for others. Several posts continued to discuss specific info found on websites that either had no website link provided…per rules is required.... or from info found on a website that is is in our boards filter…which is not allowed to be discussed.