Will 2021 have more points then DVC resorts can handle?

[fflmaster]

I searched, but couldn’t find about what people think will be the impact on the reservation system in 2021 and the 50th celebrations.

We have always planned to go in October 2021, knowing it would be very busy, however I am wondering if due to COVID and cancellations this year that far too many points will be banked into 2021 and getting reservations will become next to impossible if not booking at the moment the 11th month window opens.

What does other think?

 

[CraigInPA]

The "extended points" DVC gave to people whose points expired end in 2020, so those aren't much of an issue. A greater issue is the number of points that were banked when COVID-19 closures occurred, and banked when fear of travel occurred. This pushes a lot of points into 2021. You can expect all of 2021 to be at full capacity, with all accommodations (even 1 bedrooms) being snatched up long before the 7 month booking window opens. This will go into 2022, as some people will use their 2020 points in 2021, and bank 2021 into 2022. I foresee several years of this behavior going on.

 

[Sandisw]

I think 2021 is going to be a year that owners need to reserve all at 11 months, and expect they may even have to adjust views and room sizes too to secure things at certain resorts.

 

[CarolMN]

I don't think it will be as bad as some here think. That's because I don't think rental demand will be as strong as it has been in the past, and I believe the borrowing limits will remain in effect at least through 2021.

That said, Members should plan on staying at a home resort and booking during the home resort priority period. 7 month competition for the smaller, near-park resorts will be very intense.

 

[Disney1fan2002]

I think it will be extremely hard to get reservations outside your 11 month booking window, especially since WDW's 50th celebration will be taking place all of next year. Just plan on staying at your home resort, know that you are going to go 11 moths out, and there should not be any problems.

 

[5kidsmommy]

I don't think it will be as bad as some here think. That's because I don't think rental demand will be as strong as it has been in the past, and I believe the borrowing limits will remain in effect at least through 2021.

That said, Members should plan on staying at a home resort and booking during the home resort priority period. 7 month competition for the smaller, near-park resorts will be very intense.

So we are in that rental group. We rented this year for a September trip. My husband has been hesitant to buy but said he was willing to rent to see if he was okay with DVC rooms. Of course now we have this craziness but we are still planning on going. I plan on taking a trip with my daughter next year for her 21st birthday. I was hoping to book a free dining bounceback during our September trip but alas who the heck knows what will happen with bounceback offers. Now I think we will just try and rent a studio somewhere, basically wherever we can find one. That is of course if all goes without a hitch in September. Fingers crossed but I'm confident everything will be fine, different but fine.

 

[Pirate Granny]

DVC has no bounce back offers. I’m not sure if you qualify for a bounce back while in a DVC unit. But you can try.

 

[Sandisw]

DVC has no bounce back offers. I’m not sure if you qualify for a bounce back while in a DVC unit. But you can try.

Any onsite guest can book a bounceback, even DVC on points.

 

[Donna M]

Availability 10 months out from now looks good for all resorts, even the studios, except for CCV and BRV.
I have my spring 2021 reservation. It is not looking difficult to get rooms at that time period now. If you can't make reservations now, then you can run into problems like you always do.

I think there will be some balance between the extra points people banked compared with the 50% limit on borrowing and the reluctance of some people to travel with the uncertanty of the pandemic.

 

[Raspus]

Any onsite guest can book a bounceback, even DVC on points.

How would you do that?

 

[Sandisw]

How would you do that?

There is a number you can call from your room to book them. Of course, right now, I am not sure we will see them offered. I would not be surprised if they were none available for a while.

To clarify, this would still be a cash booking, not points. But, someone who is staying on points is still eligible to do it,

 

[Raspus]

There is a number you can call from your room to book them. Of course, right now, I am not sure we will see them offered. I would not be surprised if they were none available for a while.

To clarify, this would still be a cash booking, not points. But, someone who is staying on points is still eligible to do it,

Thank you. I thought you meant it would mean booking with points.

 

[Minniemoo15]

So far I am not seeing any tighter availability for the time of year we travel (end of feb/beg of March 2021). It looks pretty comparable to last year.

I’m hoping if we can go next March that we will be allowed to bank our points into 2022. I worry they might restrict that option.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I think it will be extremely hard to get reservations outside your 11 month booking window, especially since WDW's 50th celebration will be taking place all of next year. Just plan on staying at your home resort, know that you are going to go 11 moths out, and there should not be any problems.

There were no CCV studios available on the first day of the 11 month booking timeframe for all of March for 7 consecutive days. Most available were 3 in a row. I checked for the whole month, right at 11 month timeframe, first day. Nada, nothing.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think a factor is that points set to expire that are being extended are not available to book with until they 'expire.' So some of the extended points aren't attempting to book yet. The April, June, August, September and October 2018 Use Year Points that were banked into 2019 and used for reservations March-June are battling it out for fall, but hard to say what banking/borrowing happens for 2021.

I'm not sure we're really going to see how bad next fall is for a bit. I'd expect fall to be worse than spring-summer. Maybe some people will rethink frenzy because of suspicion that it will be much, much worse. But dunno?

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't think it will be as bad as some here think. That's because I don't think rental demand will be as strong as it has been in the past, and I believe the borrowing limits will remain in effect at least through 2021.

That said, Members should plan on staying at a home resort and booking during the home resort priority period. 7 month competition for the smaller, near-park resorts will be very intense.

I agree with this. The supply of points will be high, but the demand for the uses for those points is likely to go down. A number of Members will forgo trips either due to concerns about travel safety or the economic impact of what is shaping up to be a major recession. We saw the latter during the Great Recession as well. Yes, lodging is "paid for," but transportation, food, and entertainment are not. Putting these together, and the spoilage rate is likely to go up at least somewhat.

Add travel safety into the mix, and I think it is hard to predict what exactly will happen. Anecdotally, we have a two-week trip to Hawaii planned over the winter holidays. We have been looking forward to that trip for quite some time. But, we are not sure we are going to be ready to get on an airplane for 20 hours round trip given the current state of affairs.

And all that is before the question of whether the "New theme park experience" is something people even find enjoyable.

 

[utahkennedys]

We booked our GCV dates in 2021 as soon as we could because I do feel like there will be a lot more competition in 2021 and probably 2022. We figure we can always change it as needed if there is availability, or just rent our reservation out. I wouldn't risk it and would at least grab something at the 11 month window.