Will 1 Bed rooms point cost really be lowered?

[dwight16]

so i was reading a few threads and people mentioned due to the high demand for studios that people expect 1 bed rooms will be lowered. do people have any guestimates on how much they could be lowered? i was looking today and was surprised that there is only about a 60-80 point difference from a 1 to 2 bedroom unit i was surprised thought it would be more. just curious on why people think it could happen and if would be noticeable?

 

[kamik86]

so i was reading a few threads and people mentioned due to the high demand for studios that people expect 1 bed rooms will be lowered. do people have any guestimates on how much they could be lowered? i was looking today and was surprised that there is only about a 60-80 point difference from a 1 to 2 bedroom unit i was surprised thought it would be more. just curious on why people think it could happen and if would be noticeable?

If they do they will have to raise the price of other units... in that case I would imagine raising the priceof studios to help find a sweet spot where just about the right number of people want to spend the extra points for the extra one bedroom space vrs just getting a studio.

However raising studio prices lowers the number of nights sales people can say its possible to stay on X points so I'm not sure if they would want to do that.

 

[CarolMN]

IMO, a reallocation between studios and 1 bedrooms is wishful thinking and won't happen anytime soon. I certainly would not count on it happening were I contemplating a purchase (or sale).

It seems to me that the complaints about lack studio availability are mostly coming from those who want a near-park resort at 7 months or closer to arrival during the latter part of the year. There are only a few exceptions to that - some of the very limited in number lower cost studio options tend to disappear right at 11 months (such as standard views at BLT & BWV, Boardwalk view and value & concierge at AKV). But I doubt that changing the cost of studios will change that pattern, especially since many of the studios now sleep 5 while the 1 bedrooms still only sleep 4. (I'll be happy if 1 bedrooms are decreased in cost, though).

 

[Simba's Mom]

I certainly don't EXPECT it to happen. However, I'd love if it did. However, 1 BRs do have certain advantages over studios (washer/dryer, for example) so I don't see it happening. But boy, how I wish!

 

[DebbieB]

I originally bought in 1999 to stay in 1 bedrooms at BWV and OKW. With the reallocation of 2009/2010, the points for a 6 night stay went up at both. Since then I've been branching out to the newer resorts on occasion and they have higher points charts so I've been doing mostly studios. We like to get a room at VGC for Sunday to Wednesday nights before D23 and only 1 bedrooms are available at 7 months, it puts a dent in my 250 points at 52 points per night. We did 4 nights in a studio at Poly in May, that was 100 points, then my BWV studio (BW view) for 7 nights next month is 107. The newer resorts are point hogs.

 

[ldo]

A 1Br costs about double that of a studio. Double the space, but not double the beds. It's hard for a family of 4 to justify a 1 BR, IMHO. Sleeping 5 does make it more appealing. I would like to see studios go up a bit and 1BR go down. Even if they upped the studio by 2 points and the 1 BR down by 2 points.

 

[MrInfinity]

Interesting views in this thread. Just looked, and wow Studios are so much cheaper than 1B's! Guess I never even looked at that cuz we're not interested in Studios (6p family).

I don't think they'll raise the points for a studio and lower them for a 1B. Why?

By keeping the studio low, D can claim that you can stay more for less, like kamik said. That is good for sales, and the whole point of timeshares is to sell them. It's a loss leader.

Also... why are studios even so popular? They're not at all desirable to me. 1B's sleep an extra person and give you a room separate from your kids. I guess a Studio is ok while your kids are young (like 2-8 yrs old) and do not number more than 2, but after that, you start wanting to put them in another room. Given DVC is a long-term purchase, most ppl will outgrow Studios early in their overall ownership lifetime. And back when we'd fit in a studio, we had no reason to buy into DVC since we fit in a hotel room.

If Studios sell out fast, so what? D has no reason to care about this cuz if Studios are full, people will just book 1B's for more. This makes the more expensive 1B available to 7-month'ers who booking outside their home resort. By having the 1B's available, they can drain the people who want to cross over of more points.

Just my thoughts...

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Also... why are studios even so popular? They're not at all desirable to me. 1B's sleep an extra person and give you a room separate from your kids.

Actually, most 1BRs don't sleep an extra person above and beyond the studio. It's true at BLT, OKW and AKV, but at BCV and BWV, they both sleep 5 -- and the 1 BR doesn't have a BED for the 5th, but the Studio does. VWL 1BR sleeps 4, but the studio sleeps 5. VGF, both the 1BR and Studio sleep 5. Saratoga, the 1BR does sleep 5 to the 4 of the Studio, but like BWV and BCV, no bed or bedding is offered.

So it's complicated.

 

[LAX]

For DVCs where an 1 bedroom only sleeps 4, are there any plans to increase the capacity to 5 even without extra bedding? It just doesn't make sense that an unit about half the size is allowed to have an extra person. In those situations, one would be "forced" to book a studio instead of a 1 bedroom despite the willingness to spend the extra points for more space.

LAX

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

For DVCs where an 1 bedroom only sleeps 4, are there any plans to increase the capacity to 5 even without extra bedding?

All the 1BR's at resorts that have bedding for 4 except for AKL value rooms have long allowed 5 people to be booked - you just need to figure out the bed part.

 

[LAX]

All the 1BR's at resorts that have bedding for 4 except for AKL value rooms have long allowed 5 people to be booked - you just need to figure out the bed part.

Maybe I was looking at an outdated points chart, but I do remember seeing few with 1-bedroom showing an occupancy of 4. Well, if that's the case, are there plans to provide bedding for 5 in 1-bedrooms when a much smaller studio already do that?

LAX

 

[Anal Annie]

The threads talking about this idea are PURE SPECULATION. RUMORS ONLY at this point. Maybe wishful thinking for some of the posters who think this is going to happen soon.

We are studio users because as already pointed out, the 1 bedrooms don't add a "real bed" over what a studio offers and IMHO they're the worst point value going. We're only a family of 3 so studios are not over-crowded for us (and on our next trip in a couple of weeks it's just me & DH). So of course WE don't want to see studio points go up. When we bought in with 250 points at SSR our logic was that it would be enough points for at least 2 weeks / year in studios OR 1 week in a 1 bedroom. But we never use the 1 bedrooms because we prefer to go more times. Not saying the larger fridge & washer/dryer in the 1 bedrooms wouldn't be nice to have (we used a 1 bedroom ONCE and it WAS nice) but not nice enough to forfeit a 2nd trip every year.

I DO think they'll eventually reallocate points in some way eventually but I don't think there's been any indication of it being imminent for next year or anything like that. Perhaps within 3-5 years?! With our DS in college now our travel patterns are starting to change so if & when it happens we'll probably adjust what seasons we travel in to keep up with our 2 weeks per year.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

It is strange to me that if studios are in such high demand why then do they say that one of the reasons Poly sales were lacking was the lack of 1 beds...

 

[tjkraz]

IMO, a reallocation between studios and 1 bedrooms is wishful thinking and won't happen anytime soon. I certainly would not count on it happening were I contemplating a purchase (or sale).

Agree completely.

I don't think they'll raise the points for a studio and lower them for a 1B. Why?

By keeping the studio low, D can claim that you can stay more for less, like kamik said. That is good for sales, and the whole point of timeshares is to sell them. It's a loss leader.

Disney Vacation Club--the timeshare management company--has a fiduciary responsibility to its members to keep the point charts in line with demand. Certainly there's some wiggle room involved in reading and interpreting the occupancy data. The first two weeks of December have been prone to sell-outs right at 11 months for more than a decade now, yet DVC has not made any moves to directly address that.

Still, they cannot simply operate on the basis of what is best for sales. 6+ years ago weekday nights were much cheaper than weekends and many buyers purchased points for Sunday - Thursday stays. When DVC reallocated the charts, weekends went down in cost and weekdays up--effectively raising nightly prices across the board. Not good for current members. Not good for future sales. But still a necessary move to best service the program.

Maybe I was looking at an outdated points chart, but I do remember seeing few with 1-bedroom showing an occupancy of 4. Well, if that's the case, are there plans to provide bedding for 5 in 1-bedrooms when a much smaller studio already do that?

LAX

BLT, AKV (non-Value), VGF and Grand Californian were designed to accommodate the sleeper chairs in a 1B living room. They have since been added to OKW, Vero and HHI. Most of the other resorts (VWL, BLT, BCV, SSR) share a similar floorplan and do not appear to have room for a sleeper chair in the living room. Murphy Beds also appear to be a difficult add due to lack of space on the one available wall. Some of the resorts have their Studio connecting door on that wall where the TV & Armoire is currently positioned. And they all have a small breakfast bar & chairs on the dividing wall shared with the kitchen.

 

[MrInfinity]

Disney Vacation Club--the timeshare management company--has a fiduciary responsibility to its members to keep the point charts in line with demand. Certainly there's some wiggle room involved in reading and interpreting the occupancy data. The first two weeks of December have been prone to sell-outs right at 11 months for more than a decade now, yet DVC has not made any moves to directly address that.

Still, they cannot simply operate on the basis of what is best for sales. 6+ years ago weekday nights were much cheaper than weekends and many buyers purchased points for Sunday - Thursday stays. When DVC reallocated the charts, weekends went down in cost and weekdays up--effectively raising nightly prices across the board. Not good for current members. Not good for future sales. But still a necessary move to best service the program.

Ok, so I went back to look at the transitional time period... pulled up a 2010 chart, and sure enough, Sun-Thu were cheaper across the board by about 2(+/-) points and Fri-Sat were more expensive by 5(+/-) points. A 7-night stay remained more or less unchanged (2*5 = 5*2). It did not "effectively raise nightly prices across the board"... it only raised the cost of a stay for people who were only booking Sun-Thu. If you were booking a week, you would have been unaffected by the change.

So this tells me that people were doing exactly like you were, booking Sun-Thu, and getting a nice 5-night stay for really cheap... but then leaving the costly 2 nights of Fr-Sat unbooked. THAT I think is a case for the "fiduciary responsibility" to step in. If 2 nights out of the week are going unbooked, they need to fix that, else there will not be enough room inventory to meet the demand of the rest of the people with points.

However-- The current situation of some rooms completely filling early at 11 months, and other rooms completely filling up at 7 months, does not present the need for a fix. If all the rooms are getting booked for all the days, that's all that matters. Because there are no nights getting left behind, they meet their responsibility to fill rooms to the best of their ability.

Fiduciary responsibility does not mean making Studios more expensive and 1B's cheaper because you'd like to have the pick of more rooms that you'd consider staying in at 11 months. They are better off keeping the Studios cheap, so that the urgency to book these (and not to chance letting them go once booked) remains there. And then again they reinvigorate that urgency at the 7 month period with the 1B's. By keeping this urgency to secure specific rooms high, they lock you in earlier, and make it such that you're less likely to wait out of the fear of missing out.

And regarding early Dec, they do not need to make rooms more expensive then. This goes back to kamik's point above. Perhaps Dec 1-14 is the time that D points to in sales pitches to say "Look, 10 weeks out of the year, you can stay for as liittle as 14 points per night!" That is a huge hook for potential buyers. So what if they book up right at 11 mo, it's still a valid carrot. Now if May was going unbooked because only Dec was selling, then they should make a shift but that's not what's happening.

So I think you're interpreting fiduciary responsibility as suggesting Disney should attempt to level out demand, or do their best to prevent the occurrence of high-demand or low-demand periods. But I think it's more the responsibility to ensure that there are no rooms that consistently go unbooked. Like Fri-Sat's empty while people consume Sun-Thu trips.

 

[tjkraz]

Now if May was going unbooked because only Dec was selling, then they should make a shift but that's not what's happening.

Yes, there are periods (and rooms) going unbooked due to the imbalances in the system.

We only have very limited data to work with, and the only information that we can really look to at this moment in time is the next couple months of availability. Checking on May 2017 bookings is of no value given that it's 9 months away.

Here is what is currently available over the next 2 months:

OKW: Studio 6 nights; 1BR 20 nights
SSR: Studio 9 nights; 1BR 28 nights
Kidani Savanna: Studio 4 nights; 1BR 11 nights

In the absence of extensive data, it's pretty well established in the minds of members that Studios have higher demand than One Bedroom villas. Yes, there are still some Studio villas currently unbooked on these dates but the 1BR volume is much higher and since those rooms are each priced higher, they represent a larger point volume.

The seasons also present a problem. Most of the fall currently sits in Choice Season, the second cheapest. Meanwhile spring dates are priced 1-3 seasons higher. Outside of holiday weekends, February and May are notoriously slow periods at the DVC resorts. Late April is also very slow when Easter falls early on the calendar.

Florida timeshare statues state that managing entities have a responsibility to "further the best interests of the purchasers of the plan as a whole with respect to their opportunity to use and enjoy the accommodations and facilities of the plan." They also state that adjustments to the reservation system are necessary "in order to respond to actual purchaser use patterns and changes in purchaser use demand for the accommodations and facilities existing at that time within the plan."

With respect to the seasons, the current situation is very similar to the weekday/weekend imbalance which has been addressed. Just as too many members were once buying for weekday stays, now there are too many buying for fall dates and studio rooms.

The point charts were actually re-balanced back in the late 90s to make weekends MORE expensive. That was a response to member demand at the time. But eventually the needle shifted too far in favor of weekday stays and the 2010 adjustment was required.

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that the seasons will be addressed to some degree in the next 5 years. The 2016 charts reflected major seasonal changes for Aulani, so it's not something Disney is opposed to doing. Dangling carrots is fine...when done responsibly. February and May are currently priced higher than October, November and the first half of December. That isn't doing members any favors--it's leading to vacant rooms.

As for the studios, more caution is probably warranted there. Since the Poly added 300+ studios to the program, it's worth waiting a few years to see how that impacts overall demand. Poly buyers looking to stay in larger villas at other resorts will have a leveling effect.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Maybe I was looking at an outdated points chart, but I do remember seeing few with 1-bedroom showing an occupancy of 4. Well, if that's the case, are there plans to provide bedding for 5 in 1-bedrooms when a much smaller studio already do that?

LAX

No, there doesn't seem to be. They've refurbed most if not all those resorts that sleep 4 in the 1 bedrooms and while they added the Murphy beds and 5th person to the studios they left the 1 bedrooms the same.

Regarding the points charts showing 4 they always have. When you go to the booking page though you see a notice that 5 can be booked but you must supply the bedding (and really the bed) for the 5th.

 

[BillPA]

If Disney can make money screwing with the points yet again they will. Should they , NO. Buyer beware, you get what you buy, and it's time to quit crying about not being able to book at 4,5, 6, 7 months out. Folks you can't book a Disney hotel at 6 months out during the fall season.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The thing that is likely to get the seasons adjusted is the fact that there are more room categories that are booking up immediately at the 11 month mark - usually studios and in the smaller categories but even some larger categories are going well within the 11 month mark while other times of the year they last past 7 months. The few very small room categories should not be used as a gauge but one can't really argue that there is a disparity in seasons and that things have shifted from years ago similar to how weekdays/weekends use shifted and DVC did adjust for that.

 

[MrInfinity]

The seasons also present a problem. Most of the fall currently sits in Choice Season, the second cheapest. Meanwhile spring dates are priced 1-3 seasons higher. Outside of holiday weekends, February and May are notoriously slow periods at the DVC resorts. Late April is also very slow when Easter falls early on the calendar.

I did notice this odd seasonal distribution in our decision to buy... That almost all of the Fall dates are in Adventure-Choice but the Spring dates are in Dream-Magic.

With respect to the seasons, the current situation is very similar to the weekday/weekend imbalance which has been addressed. Just as too many members were once buying for weekday stays, now there are too many buying for fall dates and studio rooms.

The key dynamic here is whether rooms are going unbooked in the spring. With the Sun-Thurs taken, nobody wants a 2-day Fri-Sat trip that costs way more. So I could see that leaving lots of Fri-Sats untaken. But I just don't see that May is going unbooked. And like you said, we can't really check that now... Perhaps in the spring, around Feb-Mar, see what availability there is for Apr-May.

If I were a betting man, I'd wager that the seasons will be addressed to some degree in the next 5 years. The 2016 charts reflected major seasonal changes for Aulani, so it's not something Disney is opposed to doing. Dangling carrots is fine...when done responsibly. February and May are currently priced higher than October, November and the first half of December. That isn't doing members any favors--it's leading to vacant rooms.

Again you'd have to know if May is truly going unbooked. Between SWW and F&G Festival, May has traditionally been a really popular time.

February is another story. Feb falling in Dream-Magic doesn't make much sense to me. So how do we know if Feb rooms are empty? It could be that if you own at other vac clubs, ppl are transferring in to take these for cheaper?

So here's a question... you'd think based on this dynamic, that the UY of the contract would drive the cost of resale points. Since it costs fewer points to travel in the fall, you'd think UY's that give you good fall options would sell for more per point. Does that happen? I don't know if there is data on this. But you'd think then too, that Jan UY's (which are bad for trips Sep-Dec, the time when points are cheapest) would be cheaper because you'll generally need more points to travel in the spring / summer.