Why?

[gwynne]

Well we have 400 cases here & we are 25th in the nation population wise. Our governor says if growth continues like this we’ll have a serious crisis with medical care on just a week. So at this point the experts are looking to be accurate at least here. It doesn’t just affect Covid positive cases. I have a kidney infection & couldn’t get seen today & was told it’ll be tomorrow before they can even get urinalysis results.

Kidney infections are miserable. I am so sorry you are dealing with that. I hope they can take care of you tomorrow.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Today we had more than 5k new cases. We are quickly moving towards surpassing Italy in terms of daily new cases. Go America, #1 (I guess?)

"New" cases is misleading. Of course you're going to increase in numbers..when you're testing..

And who you test will directly relate to the numbers. No sense talking about hospitalization rates if that's the only people you are testing.

 

[LSUmiss]

Kidney infections are miserable. I am so sorry you are dealing with that. I hope they can take care of you tomorrow.

Thank you! I should be ok. I have a very close friend who is an ER Dr. He told me to call him tomorrow if I don’t get an answer & he’ll call in a board spectrum antibiotic for me. It’s just really scary glimpse into how things will be here for a while.

 

[mnrose]

In Minnesota, you ONLY get a Covid-19 test if you are IN the hospital OR a medical care provider with symptoms AND known exposure. In other words, you can pretty much assume that the vast majority of OUR tested cases are hospital patients.

 

[MarkLT1]

New cases is misleading. Of course you're going to increase in numbers..when you're testing..

And who you test will directly relate to the numbers. No sense talking about hospitalization rates if that's the only people you are testing.

Yes.. in a sense it can be "misleading" but there are many reasons why it might not be in the "good" direction.. As we start to ramp our testing up, we are now catching up to a country that had a huge head start in testing, and is having an unimaginable health crisis. It is not a good sign. Especially when you consider the fact that those we are testing, are primarily those who are going to hospitals (i.e.- in the 20% of those who need to seek medical attention), and the lag between infection and when you get bad enough to go into a hospital is ~10 days. In other words, the numbers we are seeing today are mostly limited to the 20% of worst cases, and are lagging the actual numbers, with an outbreak that in other countries has gone through a period of doubling every 2-3 days. You do the math on that, and you get some eye-popping numbers.

 

[godisney14]

In San Francisco, some hospitals, including Kaiser, are now asking non-intensive departments to use all protective gear and supplies longer than usual. So, they’re in uproar, rightfully so. But, what can they do with scarce resources and growing number of patients. No one’s fault but the ones not listening to stay-in-house orders.

Soon, it won’t be just consumable supplies running out and nurses pleading.
For those not taking it seriously, hopefully, they won’t complain if they become a patient and can’t get seen promptly if hospitalized.

 

[godisney14]

"New" cases is misleading. Of course you're going to increase in numbers..when you're testing..

And who you test will directly relate to the numbers. No sense talking about hospitalization rates if that's the only people you are testing.

Sure.
The cumulative confirmed case count that are reported to us doesn’t translate to an accurate prevalence.

Our numbers will continue to go up from both factors, not just because of increased testing capability but also because R0~2.5 right now.
And as mentioned these tests lag the true daily number since there’s about 3-8 day delay from onset of symptoms to getting a test result.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Yes.. in a sense it can be "misleading" but there are many reasons why it might not be in the "good" direction.. As we start to ramp our testing up, we are now catching up to a country that had a huge head start in testing, and is having an unimaginable health crisis. It is not a good sign. Especially when you consider the fact that those we are testing, are primarily those who are going to hospitals (i.e.- in the 20% of those who need to seek medical attention), and the lag between infection and when you get bad enough to go into a hospital is ~10 days. In other words, the numbers we are seeing today are mostly limited to the 20% of worst cases, and are lagging the actual numbers, with an outbreak that in other countries has gone through a period of doubling every 2-3 days. You do the math on that, and you get some eye-popping numbers.

I get what you're saying but I wasn't making a reference to the direction good or bad and I actually don't think about it in terms like that.

If you're testing more people expect more positive results, if you're only testing those who require hospitalizations expect higher hospitalization rates. Neither give you the actual data to use good information IMO. Going from not testing much to testing a lot more of course you're going to find more people with it.

I think to really consider the numbers in the way they tend to be phrased, you would have had to be doing high levels of testing in the beginning and maintain that. Then you would know if it's just all of a sudden "where are all these positives coming from" versus "hey yeah well ya know we're doing testing now soo..." or "hey yeah we're going to stop testing mild cases and only test those who require hospitalizations".

So maybe to me it's about perspective. And if I think like that I have to respect that others may not share my perspective

 

[MarkLT1]

So maybe to me it's about perspective. And if I think like that I have to respect that others may not share my perspective

Your's is an absolutely valid perspective. As my wife would say about me, I am cursed with a heavy risk assessment background, which gives me this weird innate drive to dig deep into the numbers, and tease risk-based info out of them, based on what we do know (and factoring in the things we know we don't know.. which is usually the more important part). Additionally, as another poster in another thread stated, I am getting triggered by (unrelated to the DIS boards) posts/opinions/etc.. that are being dismissive of the gravity of the situation we find ourselves in right now, so I will admit, I had a knee-jerk reaction for what I (incorrectly) interpreted as being somewhat dismissive of the numbers we're seeing. My apologies.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Your's is an absolutely valid perspective. As my wife would say about me, I am cursed with a heavy risk assessment background, which gives me this weird innate drive to dig deep into the numbers, and tease risk-based info out of them, based on what we do know (and factoring in the things we know we don't know.. which is usually the more important part). Additionally, as another poster in another thread stated, I am getting triggered by (unrelated to the DIS boards) posts/opinions/etc.. that are being dismissive of the gravity of the situation we find ourselves in right now, so I will admit, I had a knee-jerk reaction for what I (incorrectly) interpreted as being somewhat dismissive of the numbers we're seeing. My apologies.

No apologies needed at all really

 

[Farro]

So I can't remember what thread it was being discussed on (imagine that ) but I'll choose this one!

Some on the boards were saying they read there would be no natural immunity built up to the virus, but yesterday Dr. Fauci was answering questions and he said "if this virus behaves like other viruses (which he believes it will), that yes, once you get the virus your system will build up an immunity to it where either you don't get infected again or it's a much more mild version. Due to this he thinks that yes we will have a resurgence next season, but he thinks will be modest.

I am confident in Dr. Fauci so I'm happy to listen to him.

Something to be positive about amid all the bad news.

 

[AlohaNow]

I am confident in Dr. Fauci so I'm happy to listen to him.

Someone get that man a cup of hot tea with lemon and honey! He's about to lose his voice!

 

[FlightlessDuck]

I am not reading all 24 pages of this thread, so I'm going to mention something that has probably been mentioned once already. If this is anything like the "Spanish Flu", we should be taking it seriously.

Philadelphia saw a huge number of cases early in the 1918 outbreak when they decided to throw a parade. Meanwhile, St. Louis went into lockdown and saw very few cases.

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/
I have several family members who are in the high risk category. We are taking this seriously.

 

[lifesavacation]

So I can't remember what thread it was being discussed on (imagine that ) but I'll choose this one!

Some on the boards were saying they read there would be no natural immunity built up to the virus, but yesterday Dr. Fauci was answering questions and he said "if this virus behaves like other viruses (which he believes it will), that yes, once you get the virus your system will build up an immunity to it where either you don't get infected again or it's a much more mild version. Due to this he thinks that yes we will have a resurgence next season, but he thinks will be modest.

I am confident in Dr. Fauci so I'm happy to listen to him.

Something to be positive about amid all the bad news.

I like Dr Fauci as well. I find his controlled demeanor calming.

 

[Farro]

Also, my sister has lupus and already takes the anti-malarial being discussed as a "possible" treatment for Covid.

We are all trying to outdo each other showing how much we love her.

 

[Southernmiss]

Also, my sister has lupus and already takes the anti-malarial being discussed as a "possible" treatment for Covid.

We are all trying to outdo each other showing how much we love her.

DAughter and sister in law have lupus and take the same meds. We are concerned that there may be shortages for them and others now.

Sister in law is a nurse practicioner. We are doubly concerned for her. But hopeful that both of them do have some protection because of the meds they do take

 

[jiminyC_fan]

My husband was diagnosed with ALS two days ago. I am so fearful that he will not get the proper care. I found myself outraged looking at FB last night. I had two friends that were throwing quarantine parties. One in her 30's and the other in her late 50's. What is wrong with people?

 

[Farro]

My husband was diagnosed with ALS two days ago. I am so fearful that he will not get the proper care. I found myself outraged looking at FB last night. I had two friends that were throwing quarantine parties. One in her 30's and the other in her late 50's. What is wrong with people?

I'm so sorry your husband has been afflicted with that terrible disease.

 

[jiminyC_fan]

I'm so sorry your husband has been afflicted with that terrible disease.

Thank you. It was horrible delivering the news to our daughters over the phone but his safety was paramount.

 

[Farro]

Thank you. It was horrible delivering the news to our daughters over the phone but his safety was paramount.