Why not use MB it get real and accurate SB wait times?

[MaryKatesMom]

With all that money spent by the NextGen crowd how about putting some of it toward getting accurate SB wait times. I'm sure it would be time consuming for everyone to scan the MB upon entering but 1 ini 10 wouldn't be bad.

Has anyone on the dis had that NOT happen? I once almost missed a FP return time when the 20 SB line was really 40.

Wouldn't it be nice to trust the number you see?

I think this is going to be a real issue on headliners first thing in the AM when there is now a FP+ available starting at 9AM.

 

[puffkin]

I was thinking the same thing.

I always laugh at all the hysteria on these boards about the wait times. We have found the posted wait times to be inaccurate close to 75% of the time. Sometimes in our favor, sometimes not. But the fact that people rely on them so heavily cracks me up.

Plus, the conspiracist side of me comes out too. I think wait times were fudged in the past to spread people out in the parks. I wouldn't be surprised if this is done more frequently than people realize....to get people to hop into lines or skip over lines for certain reasons. The technology is there though, and I don't doubt that it will be used (or is being used unbeknowst to us) soon.

 

[johde]

There are several potential problems with the system. And they are the same problems you have with the red cards plus a couple more. The big one common to both system is you aren't measuring current wait time, you are measuring wait time when that person entered the line a few minutes ago. For example, you get in line just before Beauty and the Beast lets out, or the parade goes by etc you get a short wait. Once the show lets out, 500 people get in line, the line swells faster than any automated that was based on active scanning could keep up.

In your situation, you scan 1 in 10 MB people as they enter the SB queue. That tells you nothing unless you know to scan them as they leave the queue as well. The only MB based system that would have a possibility of working would need to combine an active scan when they entered the queue, w/ handheld scanners for rides that use extended queues. After the active scan, they would need a several sets of the passive RFID scanners to measuring the persons pace through the line. Then, you need to know what sections of the queue are currently open. So you would have MB 1654399854 entered the queue for BTMRR at 12:15. They passes the first checkpoint at 12:40. MB 185738284 just took 20 minutes to get from CP 1 to CP 2 and MB 849326273 Just took 15 minutes to get from CP 2 to CP4 (CP3 is in a portion of the queue not currently being used). We get a wait time of 60 minutes. If a bunch of people entered the line, we would know as soon as the magic bands hit the first check point. If a bunch of people entered the FP return line the time between internal checkpoints would increase. But the level of accuracy would depend on the number of extra passive scanners they added to each SB line.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

I was thinking the same thing.


Plus, the conspiracist side of me comes out too. I think wait times were fudged in the past to spread people out in the parks. I wouldn't be surprised if this is done more frequently than people realize....to get people to hop into lines or skip over lines for certain reasons. The technology is there though, and I don't doubt that it will be used (or is being used unbeknowst to us) soon.

Olive Garden inflates it wait times all the time. Usually so people aren't ticked at the hostess. You are much happier waiting 26 minutes when you are told 40 than waiting those 26 minutes having been told 20.

Just to be on the safe side add 5 minutes.

There are several potential problems with the system. And they are the same problems you have with the red cards plus a couple more. The big one common to both system is you aren't measuring current wait time, you are measuring wait time when that person entered the line a few minutes ago. For example, you get in line just before Beauty and the Beast lets out, or the parade goes by etc you get a short wait. Once the show lets out, 500 people get in line, the line swells faster than any automated that was based on active scanning could keep up.

In your situation, you scan 1 in 10 MB people as they enter the SB queue. That tells you nothing unless you know to scan them as they leave the queue as well. The only MB based system that would have a possibility of working would need to combine an active scan when they entered the queue, w/ handheld scanners for rides that use extended queues. After the active scan, they would need a several sets of the passive RFID scanners to measuring the persons pace through the line. Then, you need to know what sections of the queue are currently open. So you would have MB 1654399854 entered the queue for BTMRR at 12:15. They passes the first checkpoint at 12:40. MB 185738284 just took 20 minutes to get from CP 1 to CP 2 and MB 849326273 Just took 15 minutes to get from CP 2 to CP4 (CP3 is in a portion of the queue not currently being used). We get a wait time of 60 minutes. If a bunch of people entered the line, we would know as soon as the magic bands hit the first check point. If a bunch of people entered the FP return line the time between internal checkpoints would increase. But the level of accuracy would depend on the number of extra passive scanners they added to each SB line.

You're right about the lag time but I think it could be done without checkpoints if everyone is just checked in.

This math is over my head but if you know that ride X can handle a certain number of people per minute then you know how long it can clear the number of people that just entered each line both FP and SB.

Meaning you couldn't just read the SB line number because the load of the ride isn't 100% just SB. That also what throws off SB wait times. I guarantee you there is a huge difference in the FP+ return time for 9AM vs. 10 AM. Who would get use it at 9AM if you can cruise in at 10AM?

Isn't there an actuary out there who could probably with the data figure it out in 5 minutes?

So I wondering why they don't?

 

[Moonwolf]

You're right about the lag time but I think it could be done without checkpoints if everyone is just checked in.

This math is over my head but if you know that ride X can handle a certain number of people per minute then you know how long it can clear the number of people that just entered each line both FP and SB.

Meaning you couldn't just read the SB line number because the load of the ride isn't 100% just SB. That also what throws off SB wait times. I guarantee you there is a huge difference in the FP+ return time for 9AM vs. 10 AM. Who would get use it at 9AM if you can cruise in at 10AM?

Isn't there an actuary out there who could probably with the data figure it out in 5 minutes?

So I wondering why they don't?

I think just counting people could be flawed due to party size. Say for TSM 6 people enter the line. If it's just counting people then the computer thinks that they will fill up 1 1/2 cars. But really they are 2 groups of 3 people so they take up 2 cars all by themselves. That pushes the computer estimate back 1/2 car... multiply it by the many dozens of people in the lines.

It may work better with ride with a single rider line but usually both single rider and stand-by have different wait times. For TT again the computer has no idea who is riding in a group of 2 or 3. So if 9 people enter the line stand-by the computer will think it can fill 3 rows. But really there is one group of 3 and three groups of 2. 3 people from the single rider line can fill in those spots but how will computer know that those spots will be available to fill until they all get to the ride vehicles so the single rider wait time is up in the air. It can work off averages but that's, I'm assuming what they are already doing to some extent.

And of course none of these factor in FP+

 

[MaryKatesMom]

Averages might work if you have large volumes data to work with which at WDW shouldn't be a problem.

Certainly better than the current method.

 

[morethananyonex]

If they don't get enough data with the red card method that could be fixed easily by handing out more red cards. I suspect wait times being inaccurate are caused by the inability to measure future wait, just past wait. The proposed fix in the OP still tells you how long the line has been not how long the line is going to be. Add in the unpredictable amount of time the FP line is going to add to the stand by line and you've got inaccurate waits.

Besides, I wouldn't want to see Magic Band scanning clogging up stand by lines too. We don't need 2 lines snaking through the parks per ride. You're also adding unaccounted for wait time with that method.

Lastly, the red card method allows CMs to see who has one, making it less likely that a guest forgets to scan when they board. The band method may have to count on guests remembering, which is even less likely when they're not holding on to the card. I know I've gotten used to holding the card and forgot I had it even though it was right there in my hand. A band would be worse.