Why does Touring Plans have HS at a 10 crowd level on Thursday Aug 2?

[mesaboy2]

What is science????

I’m pretty science-y. Not so much fortune-teller-y, at least to this level of detail.

What this site does, admittedly to the best of its ability, is try to predict human behavior on a massive scale months from now. It cannot account for variables that no one can see—world economies ebbing and flowing, weather events, terrorist incidents—that can happen in an instant. Crowded, not crowded, and in-between based on historical data is fine and justifiable, concerning oneself between a 7 and a 9 in late September or whenever is pretty silly in my opinion.

 

[piccolopat]

If you are looking to TP for a "guarantee" then I'm sure you'll be disappointed.

I don't so I'm not.

 

[StacyStrong]

I’m pretty science-y. Not so much fortune-teller-y, at least to this level of detail.

What this site does, admittedly to the best of its ability, is try to predict human behavior on a massive scale months from now. It cannot account for variables that no one can see—world economies ebbing and flowing, weather events, terrorist incidents—that can happen in an instant. Crowded, not crowded, and in-between based on historical data is fine and justifiable, concerning oneself between a 7 and a 9 in late September or whenever is pretty silly in my opinion.

Ya sure. I guess if a terrorist event happens or a hurricane destroys half of Florida, don't rely on it?

Again, no one thinks it's foolproof. But unless a major incident happens, I think you can use it as a baseline to make plans?

No one is saying it's the holy grail.

 

[WDW_Ding]

Sure, but here's the problem with that. TP even says on their own website...and I quote... "Two guests who tour the Magic Kingdom on the same day may not agree on how the crowd felt. It will depend greatly on their personal perspective: what time of year they usually visit the parks, how experienced they are, what touring plan they used, etc" So putting a 1-10 number on a crowd is 100% arbitrary and based on personal feelings. Yes, I know...they try to quantify it by using wait times. Great. I could be wrong, but I think it's WDW posted wait times. Well...rides go down/break. Weather happens. Crowds will ebb and flow into and out of rides (we've all seen rides have ups and downs in lines), it's widely known WDW will not always post exactly accurate wait times, on and on. So that alone, for me, pretty much rules out any true value in that. To add on to it, that's based on posted wait times in the past. It doesn't mean that because a posted wait time was 90 minutes last Thursday that it'll be that way 5 Thursdays from now. I simply can't buy into the fact that a posted wait time in the past has anything to do with precisely what will happen on a given day and a given time.

TP literally quantifies it's system here, at this link I provided many posts ago:

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels/

A better example is here:

https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels

It is obvious that you're not even trying to familiarize yourself with the product.

It's literally not arbitrary. They tell you the specific parameters for their "1-10". They literally spell out what the wait times fall into into (on a high and low end) for each "level" on their crowd calendar.

That's actually the complete opposite of arbitrary. If you don't want to rely on it or look at it? That's fine. But it's patently false to call something arbitrary just because it uses historical data. That's how EVERYTHING in the world works. Insurance rates. Disney's pricing levels and resort cost. Employee payrates at every company ever. Looking at historical data to predict future results.

No. It's not always right. It's not a guarantee. But it's not arbitrary.

100% right.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

OP’s question has been thouroughy discussed. Closing.