Why does Touring Plans have HS at a 10 crowd level on Thursday Aug 2?

[DisneyFive]

Agree here- Len is responsive. They have a forum over there, too. You could post the question.

...and then follow-up here with their response. Please

Dan

 

[WDW_Ding]

Agreed, a one or two point difference in a crowd prediction is not something to make decisions on. They are at the end of the day—and I’ll be careful with my description here—a wild guess.

The numbers are arbitrary, honestly. As other PP have said, it really won't matter.

To say that Touring Plans is just making "wild guesses" and using "arbitrary" numbers is absurd.

TP is very transparent about what data they use, how they get it, and how they apply it.

 

[SaintsManiac]

To say that Touring Plans is just making "wild guesses" and using "arbitrary" numbers is absurd.

TP is very transparent about what data they use, how they get it, and how they apply it.

I think crowd calendars in general are absurd, so I guess we are even.

 

[Klayfish]

To say that Touring Plans is just making "wild guesses" and using "arbitrary" numbers is absurd.

TP is very transparent about what data they use, how they get it, and how they apply it.

And IMO, to subscribe to the theory that the "data" they use has any relevance to crowds in the future is absurd. It truly is a matter of opinion on whether you believe in how they apply historical data. Clearly I don't. There are just far too many variables for historical data to have any specific meaning. It can have general meaning. Sure, Xmas is insanely busy. You can also spot the trend that summers in general have been less busy in recent years. But those are much more broad trends. IMO, to say that on a specific Thursday 4 months from now the crowd in HS will be a "7" (whatever that actually means) but then the next day it'll be a 6 is just completely wild guessing...at best.

 

[piccolopat]

It's just like the stock market - past performance is no guarantee of future results. Crowd predictions will be an indication of what it was like for the same day in the past and that's it. If people weren't traveling last summer because of finances due to the recession, they might come this summer because the economy is better. Maybe some people were waiting until more new things opened and until the first year Pandora crowds were gone. If the crowds are a 10, I would definitely prefer to go when it is a 7. If you have park hopper, that would give you the flexibility to leave and go somewhere else if one park is too crowded for you. I would plan any FP+ for early in the day and ADRs for lunch so you have that option.

 

[mesaboy2]

To say that Touring Plans is just making "wild guesses" and using "arbitrary" numbers is absurd.

TP is very transparent about what data they use, how they get it, and how they apply it.

When they come back with data from the future, I’ll listen.

 

[WDW_Ding]

And IMO, to subscribe to the theory that the "data" they use has any relevance to crowds in the future is absurd. It truly is a matter of opinion on whether you believe in how they apply historical data. Clearly I don't. There are just far too many variables for historical data to have any specific meaning. It can have general meaning. Sure, Xmas is insanely busy. You can also spot the trend that summers in general have been less busy in recent years. But those are much more broad trends. IMO, to say that on a specific Thursday 4 months from now the crowd in HS will be a "7" (whatever that actually means) but then the next day it'll be a 6 is just completely wild guessing...at best.

It's just like the stock market - past performance is no guarantee of future results. Crowd predictions will be an indication of what it was like for the same day in the past and that's it. If people weren't traveling last summer because of finances due to the recession, they might come this summer because the economy is better. Maybe some people were waiting until more new things opened and until the first year Pandora crowds were gone. If the crowds are a 10, I would definitely prefer to go when it is a 7. If you have park hopper, that would give you the flexibility to leave and go somewhere else if one park is too crowded for you. I would plan any FP+ for early in the day and ADRs for lunch so you have that option.

They don't just use historical data. They use other data as well.

Here is some interesting information about TP:

https://www.wired.com/2012/11/len-testa-math-vacation/

And the numbers that they use for their crowd calendars do actually means something. It isn't arbitrary.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels/

My point is, there are many on this board that act like TP just makes stuff up or just makes guesses based on what happened last year. That isn't true. Additionally, TP does more than create crowd calendars...they actually create customized "touring plans" that help visitors get the most from their time in the parks. They do all of this using real math, real data, and real effort. It makes me crazy when people just blow it off as though they're worthless.

 

[WDW_Ding]

When they come back with data from the future, I’ll listen.

You're right. How could anyone ever make educated predictions using multiple data sources?

 

[piccolopat]

They don't just use historical data. They use other data as well.

Here is some interesting information about TP:

https://www.wired.com/2012/11/len-testa-math-vacation/

And the numbers that they use for their crowd calendars do actually means something. It isn't arbitrary.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels/

My point is, there are many on this board that act like TP just makes stuff up or just makes guesses based on what happened last year. That isn't true. Additionally, TP does more than create crowd calendars...they actually create customized "touring plans" that help visitors get the most from their time in the parks. They do all of this using real math, real data, and real effort. It makes me crazy when people just blow it off as though they're worthless.

Understood but in the end they are still predictions - not a guarantee of what the crowds will be on any day in the future. People use real math, real data and real effort everyday trying to make money in the stock market. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they are not. The methodology may be sound but it is still a prediction.

 

[SaintsManiac]

They don't just use historical data. They use other data as well.

Here is some interesting information about TP:

https://www.wired.com/2012/11/len-testa-math-vacation/

And the numbers that they use for their crowd calendars do actually means something. It isn't arbitrary.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels/

My point is, there are many on this board that act like TP just makes stuff up or just makes guesses based on what happened last year. That isn't true. Additionally, TP does more than create crowd calendars...they actually create customized "touring plans" that help visitors get the most from their time in the parks. They do all of this using real math, real data, and real effort. It makes me crazy when people just blow it off as though they're worthless.

To me, it is the same as trying to predict the weather, or where a hurricane will go or how much gas will cost in 2 months or if my team will make the playoffs.

No one really knows and putting a number on it doesn't make it right.

I value Touring Plans. I have a subscription and I buy their books. I just don't think anyone can put a "number" on how many people will be in a certain place on a certain day.

 

[Klayfish]

They don't just use historical data. They use other data as well.

Here is some interesting information about TP:

https://www.wired.com/2012/11/len-testa-math-vacation/

And the numbers that they use for their crowd calendars do actually means something. It isn't arbitrary.

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels/

My point is, there are many on this board that act like TP just makes stuff up or just makes guesses based on what happened last year. That isn't true. Additionally, TP does more than create crowd calendars...they actually create customized "touring plans" that help visitors get the most from their time in the parks. They do all of this using real math, real data, and real effort. It makes me crazy when people just blow it off as though they're worthless.

Sorry if it makes you crazy, but there are those that do think it's worthless. I've read their explanations as to how they do what they do, and I still don't buy into it. There are just far too many variables that they simply can never account for. Sure, they'll be "accurate" sometimes. But I'll be accurate sometimes too if I flip a coin and guess heads or tails. I simply don't think any of the data they use can be applied to the future, on a micro level. Macro, maybe.

I subscribe to TP, but the one and only reason is I like the crowd sourced wait times. It's cool to see that someone was just on Space Mountain 3 minutes ago and only waited xx amount of time. That's helpful. But the rest of it, sorry, I don't buy it. Not blowing it off, simply saying I think it's just snake oil.

 

[Etch]

Sure, they'll be "accurate" sometimes.

You're right. How could anyone ever make educated predictions using multiple data sources?

No one has to believe on faith what either side here is saying.

TP posts the crowd level they predicted versus what the crowds actually were back for about the last 5 years. If you look at this you will see that they are very close with their predictions most of the time. Far more accurate than a 50% coin flip. Just look for yourself....the numbers are there to see. No "opinion" required.

Have there been some anomaly's like this past January/February? Yes, but that doesn't trump their prediction record of the past or since then.

 

[WDW_Ding]

Understood but in the end they are still predictions - not a guarantee of what the crowds will be on any day in the future. People use real math, real data and real effort everyday trying to make money in the stock market. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they are not. The methodology may be sound but it is still a prediction.

If you are looking to TP for a "guarantee" then I'm sure you'll be disappointed.

 

[mesaboy2]

You're right. How could anyone ever make educated predictions using multiple data sources?

Your snark is showing.

 

[ww52]

I feel the need to chime in on crowd predictions. Math/stat/geek alert!
(ETA: my avatar and tagline combine for a most geeky pun)

Recognize that in the US we have zero understanding of statistics and the quantification of uncertainty.

Or maybe it's zero tolerance for uncertainty.

When I was in grad school studying statistics, one of my professors worked on election night coverage for NBC. The sampling etc they did was proprietary but the concept was simple - they constructed confidence intervals and when the entire confidence interval was on one side of 50%, the declared a winner.

He went on the say that in England - the "birthplace" of statistics, it was not uncommon for poll results on TV to be accompanied with a standard deviation. NOT a "margin of error", but the specific standard deviation - or more accurately I assume it was the standard error (there is a BIG difference)- figuring that many people understood how to apply that. (And if not, they were smart enough to learn).

Not saying we're not smart enough - but really, we are HORRIBLE in math in this country and that's why so many analytics jobs in my company are filled (by necessity) from people outside the US. (Why are we horrible - because they STILL teach it as memorization, and there is a social stigma / peer pressure thing of being good in math for kids, and parents to a large extent seem scared of it and pass that fear to their kids. Overgeneralizing of course, but not off base.)

That said - yes, of course crowd predictors are ESTIMATES with UNCERTAINTY that I'm sure they COULD publish as well. And as such, I suspect they are correct within a reasonable margin or error. Like weather. The meteorologist COULD say there is a 95% probability that the high temperature will be between 88 and 92 degrees, but instead they say it will be 90 degree. They COULD say "the conditions we're seeing have produced measurable rainfall 40% of the time, but 60% of the time those conditions changed or dissipated in such a way as to produce no rain", but instead they say there is a 40% chance of rain.

Regarding the OP - the same thing happened to our chosen HS date in July. It shot up to 10. I looked and saw WDW it now had early hours AND late hours that day. Because of Toy Story Land being new I assume. That shot the estimate up to 10 - which made perfect sense to me. Already subject to crowds given it's summer and a now whole new land AND extended hours day AND night. No analytics or degree in statistics required!

 

[StacyStrong]

You're right. How could anyone ever make educated predictions using multiple data sources?

What is science????

 

[Klayfish]

No one has to believe on faith what either side here is saying.

TP posts the crowd level they predicted versus what the crowds actually were back for about the last 5 years. If you look at this you will see that they are very close with their predictions most of the time. Far more accurate than a 50% coin flip. Just look for yourself....the numbers are there to see. No "opinion" required.

Sure, but here's the problem with that. TP even says on their own website...and I quote... "Two guests who tour the Magic Kingdom on the same day may not agree on how the crowd felt. It will depend greatly on their personal perspective: what time of year they usually visit the parks, how experienced they are, what touring plan they used, etc" So putting a 1-10 number on a crowd is 100% arbitrary and based on personal feelings. Yes, I know...they try to quantify it by using wait times. Great. I could be wrong, but I think it's WDW posted wait times. Well...rides go down/break. Weather happens. Crowds will ebb and flow into and out of rides (we've all seen rides have ups and downs in lines), it's widely known WDW will not always post exactly accurate wait times, on and on. So that alone, for me, pretty much rules out any true value in that. To add on to it, that's based on posted wait times in the past. It doesn't mean that because a posted wait time was 90 minutes last Thursday that it'll be that way 5 Thursdays from now. I simply can't buy into the fact that a posted wait time in the past has anything to do with precisely what will happen on a given day and a given time.

 

[DisneyFive]

I've been happy with touring plans. I gather as much information as I can to make informed decisions. I also include other crowd predictions, like Kenny the Pirate or before that Josh at easywdw when he used to do them.

Touringplans has so much more to offer than just the crowd calendars anyway.

Dan

 

[StacyStrong]

Sure, but here's the problem with that. TP even says on their own website...and I quote... "Two guests who tour the Magic Kingdom on the same day may not agree on how the crowd felt. It will depend greatly on their personal perspective: what time of year they usually visit the parks, how experienced they are, what touring plan they used, etc" So putting a 1-10 number on a crowd is 100% arbitrary and based on personal feelings. Yes, I know...they try to quantify it by using wait times. Great. I could be wrong, but I think it's WDW posted wait times. Well...rides go down/break. Weather happens. Crowds will ebb and flow into and out of rides (we've all seen rides have ups and downs in lines), it's widely known WDW will not always post exactly accurate wait times. So that alone, for me, pretty much rules out any true value in that. To add on to it, that's based on posted wait times in the past. It doesn't mean that because a posted wait time was 90 minutes last Thursday that it'll be that way 5 Thursdays from now.

It's literally not arbitrary. They tell you the specific parameters for their "1-10". They literally spell out what the wait times fall into into (on a high and low end) for each "level" on their crowd calendar.

That's actually the complete opposite of arbitrary. If you don't want to rely on it or look at it? That's fine. But it's patently false to call something arbitrary just because it uses historical data. That's how EVERYTHING in the world works. Insurance rates. Disney's pricing levels and resort cost. Employee payrates at every company ever. Looking at historical data to predict future results.

No. It's not always right. It's not a guarantee. But it's not arbitrary.

And I can't even with the weather comparisons. I hope none of you carry an umbrella when there is an 80% chance of rain.

Being prepared and using historical data to predict the future isn't outlandish. I wouldn't say change your whole trip based on TP. But I would say that you can look at it to help you plan and then adjust as needed.

 

[StacyStrong]

Y'all have very loose definitions of arbitrary and meaningless.