Who would team up with Pixar, if not Disney.

MelissathePooh

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DR and I have talked about it quite a bit and have our own suppositions based on studio history, but I curious what all y'all think. It seems fair to say that a majority around here think it will not be Disney - so who do you think it will be and why?
 
Well, I think it WILL be Disney because the fit is right. Mike & Steve might both be egocentric babies but they can see where the best money opportunity is. Pixar has the upper hand, so I expect to see a big change favoring them and you know what? This is fair. They've made the movies over and over again and with Disney's distribution capabilities they have been huge. Disney deserves credit for these successes but not nearly as much as Pixar, to be sure.

This relationship will go on because (1) Disney needs it and will give in, a lot, and (2) It is better for Pixar to maintain the successful status quo rather than tempt fate. Katzenbergs success rate is there for everyone to see.

I will be very interested to hear the criteria of those who think a change will be made, just the same.
 
I'm wondering about MGM now that they've withdrawn from the Universal bidding. The company is looking to expand their horizons and working with Pixar might just be what they need.

Also, I wonder about Dreamworks. How much anger and power does the "little tyrant" have anyway?

Of course, Mr Pirate makes a strong case for Disney but I'm not as confident as he is. I'd love to know what you and D-R think too by the way.
 
I'll only speak for myself, as DR is typically much more in depth and usually more accurate than I am.

AOL/Time Warner - pretty spread out, not much experience distributing mega million dollar animated films

Vivendi - out of the game

Viacom - hard to separate the name of Nickolodean animation and again not sure they would be prepared to handle the distribution effectively, they haven't so far

Dreamworks - bare overseas distribution abilities compared to Disney, on top of series of poor results

Fox - gained some experience with Ice Age, but still don't think they would be an effective player distribution wise or internationally

Sony - now this would be my bet for a replacement if such a thing does come to pass. While they did not have much, if any success with Final Fantasy, they are huge, they are global. Distribution experience - not so much with animation, but quite a bit with other media. This is more of a feeling, which could easily be way off, but it makes more sense to me than the others.

Not many studios experienced with animation also have experience with successful distribution of mega-millio dollar animated films. Dreamworks had one (maybe two if you count Chicken Run), Fox kind of had one, Disney for lack of many other things, has a decent distribution record. I really think regardless of quality, Pixar would have a tough time without effective distribution.

Now despite what earlier threads may imply I believe AV would have some really good insight into this topic, without bashing Disney, I would be very interested in who he sees as being the major player in the game.
 

Disney is still the logical choice, because:

--They have a successful history together. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

--Disney has the distribution and marketing power.

--Disney has the merchandising expertise.

--Despite what some seem to believe, the Disney name still has a lot of clout in the family market.

One element which Disney brings to the table that nobody else does is the cross-promotion in the theme parks. Having the Pixar characters in the Studios parades and attractions and such has got to have some benefit in keeping them in front of new generations of kids and continuing the residuals.

Of course, they still have to cut their deal; however, despite their occasional bickering in the past, they are still talking. I see it like a star athlete who wants to renegotiate his contract but the team refuses. But, when the contract expires, both sides look around and see what the options are, and end up at least taking a good faith shot at coming to terms.
 
Planogirl, I don't see MGM having the capital, or the experience, in distributing a huge budget animated release. If it weren't for James Bond, would MGM still be in business?

As for dreamworks, I remember seeing Shrek displays at Kroger when it was in release. Sinbad had that great tie in at Baskin-Robbins. Somebody on here said that they thought that the "Disney" name actually pulled down Pixar; good greif, think about what the "Dreamworks" name would do - don't you think that everyone associates that name with second rate animation/smart elickey, less family stuff? With Disney, Pixar has happy meal promotions at McDonalds, a channel that puts toys and plush in to Wal-mart, Target, the Disney store, heavy coverage on Disney Channel/ABC, and the theme park connections. Disney not only has the distribution channels in the US, but international; compare the international box office of Shrek with Monsters, Inc. I don't think that any of those companies that Melissa listed have the wherewithal to seriously want to tackle distributing and promoting someone else's 300 million dollar animated films. I know I wouldn't choose any of them if I were Pixar; would you? And if I was any of those companies, I don't know that I would want to bite it off; would you? I just don't see anyone as viable.
 
I think Dreamworks will try and drive up the price as much as possible but I think Sony is the one to come hard on this one. Pixar is a nice plum that anyone would love to pick but Sony has the world-wide presence to help make it work. I am thinking Disney will end up with Pixar but it will cost them a lot. I am concerned about what may be cut in other parts of the company as a result.
 
Without the experience its hard to say how Sony would fair - not to mention if they even have the interest in cgi anymore, but again IF the Disney/Pixar partnership were to dissolve (which I don't really think it will) Sony would be my bet for size and reach, but doubtful in terms of effectiveness.

I think Disney will huff and puff and Pixar will stomp their feet and in the end both will realize the natural fit they have with each other.
 
I still consider Disney the favorite in this.

Fox and Sony would be next on my list, but I don't even know if they are interested.
 
Does Pixar have all that much leverage if all these other studios either don't have the distribution/merchandising clout or aren't interested. All the talk in the past made it seem like the suitors would be lining up and Disney would be over a barrel if they wanted to continue the relationship. Is that the case?

As they say.................the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Disney will have to give up more when they re-sign with Pixar, the question is how much.
 
I think a lot of you people are giving way to much credit for a movie company doing one of the basic task needed in making a movie and that is distributing the movies.

I think that Sony, Fox or DreamWorks could pick right up and Distribute and Market these movies with ease. A deal could be cut with Universal to market the characters and movies in the parks. I mean at this point I don't see many of these other movie houses saying nah...we don't want to deal with all of the money these movies from Pixar are making. (Which from a quick count was around 1.25 billion - just in the US.)


I also think many of you are under estimating Eisner's ability to lose this one. I mean just look at some of the deals he has missed or screwed up over the last few years and I can easily see Fox and Pixar working together.
 
Does Pixar have all that much leverage if all these other studios either don't have the distribution/merchandising clout or aren't interested. All the talk in the past made it seem like the suitors would be lining up and Disney would be over a barrel if they wanted to continue the relationship. Is that the case?
Obviously, if no one is interested, Pixar loses some clout. But if they aren't interested, it will only be because the deal Disney is offering is better than they can match, which means its better for Pixar than the current deal.

I don't think distribution clout is the major issue... we know that Disney has had problems securing prime slots in recent past, so its not like they have much of an advantage over others. Besides, unlike the public, those in "the business" know Pixar films will sell, so that's where the real clout will come from.

Disney's advantage seems to come from merchandising and possibly marketing, but again, part of that comes from the appeal of the films. Its not like McD's or BK won't want Pixar toys for its Kids' Meals. I'm not sure who handles the merchandising/marketing for Star Wars in the Lucas/Fox deal, but there seems to be no shortage of capability there. Fox also distributed Ice Age, which they seemed to handle pretty well.

All that said, I still think Disney is the best option for Pixar, provided Disney is reasonable in negotiations.

It may still be quite some time before all of this is sorted out...
 
Originally posted by EUROPA
I think a lot of you people are giving way to much credit for a movie company doing one of the basic task needed in making a movie and that is distributing the movies.

I think that Sony, Fox or DreamWorks could pick

Europa...this is one area that I generally am not able to agree with you - I think you underestimate what the Disney-Pixar relationship has been, and I think you overestimate Sony, Fox, and Dreamworks track record/ability to distribute major animated features. That's just IMHO of course.
 
Originally posted by d-r
Europa...this is one area that I generally am not able to agree with you - I think you underestimate what the Disney-Pixar relationship has been, and I think you overestimate Sony, Fox, and Dreamworks track record/ability to distribute major animated features. That's just IMHO of course.

NO the issue is that I don't see anything that Disney does special and apart from any of those studios when they release a movie. Maybe I'm just ignorant to all of the great marketing subliminal messages that Disney bombards me with.
 
Maybe I'm just ignorant to all of the great marketing subliminal messages that Disney bombards me with.
They actually don't promote a movie any different then the next guy. We are constantly innundated with advertising.

Disney's relationship with Pixar has proven success. Any move away from this is a tremendous risk for both companies. They know it.

I'll will say this: If Pixar does sell out to the highest bidder I would expect to hear from all our veterans how that demonstrates a loss of focus on the company's core business philosophy. Afterall, they are supposed to be in the business to create dramatic QUALITY works of art - not to cut deals with lesser suitors simply for purely financial gain.

If the situation were reverse, oh how the cries would echo.
 
Ok, I know this is a dumb question, and there is an answer to this, but I just don't know what it is. Why exactly is it that Pixar needs a partner? Why can't they go it alone? I mean apart from the risk... is that it?
 
Originally posted by crusader
They actually don't promote a movie any different then the next guy. We are constantly innundated with advertising.

Disney's relationship with Pixar has proven success. Any move away from this is a tremendous risk for both companies. They know it.

You see that is just what I don't get. Lets say Lucas was able to cut a deal with DreamWorks and release Star Wars Ep III with them instead of Fox is there a doubt that it won't rake in the money? I'm just not seeing what Disney is bringing to the table that is bosting these Pixar movies beyond what another comapnay given the same great movie could not do.
 
Pixar is a very new company with not nearly enough cash to pay all the associated expenses related to film production. They have an impressive looking balance sheet due to an absence of debt. They have an equally impressive income statement due to an absense of production expenses and distribution costs.
Read the 10-K: Particularly pages 8 through 12 which outline their relationship and agreement with Disney. Pages 21 and on are equally interesting.
This is what was filed with the SEC - NOT what they give us if we call them for an annual report.
http://corporate.pixar.com/EdgarDet...91618-03-1511&SID=03-00#F88774ORE10VK_HTM_009
Some key excerpts:

Relationship with Disney

A critical component of our objective to maintain our position as a leading brand in the animated feature film market is to secure strong promotion, marketing and distribution of our films and related products. We believe that Disney is a leader in the marketing and distribution of animated feature films and related products and one of the industry’s most widely recognized brand names. We have enjoyed a long relationship with Disney that dates back to 1986, when we entered into a joint technical development effort with Disney that resulted in the Computer Assisted Production System (“CAPS”), a production system owned and used by Disney in some of its two-dimensional cel-based animated feature films. Disney first used CAPS for The Rescuers Down Under and has continued to use it for its subsequent animated feature films, such as The Lion King and Tarzan . In 1992, certain employees of Pixar and Disney were jointly awarded an Academy Award ® for Scientific and Engineering Achievement for the development of CAPS.

In May 1991, we entered into the Feature Film Agreement with Walt Disney Pictures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Disney, which provided for the development, production and distribution of up to three feature-length motion pictures (the “Feature Film Agreement”). It was pursuant to the Feature Film Agreement that Toy Story was developed, produced and distributed. In 1997, we extended our existing relationship with Disney by entering into the Co-Production Agreement. This agreement generally provides that we will be responsible for the development, pre-production and production of each Picture, while Disney will be responsible for the marketing, promotion, publicity, advertising and distribution of each Picture. The profits from the Pictures are shared equally between Pixar and Disney after Disney recovers a distribution fee and pre-agreed distribution costs. The term of this arrangement continues until the delivery of Cars to Disney, which we expect to occur in 2005……………………………………….


………………………………Due to the recent success of CGI animated films, several movie studios have developed their own internal computer animation capability which may be used for special effects in animated films and live action films. For example, DreamWorks SKG (with PDI) successfully produced Antz in 1998 and Shrek in 2001. In addition, Fox successfully produced, through its subsidiary Blue Sky, Ice Age, which was released in March 2002. Other movie studios may internally develop, license or sub-contract three-dimensional animation capability, or enter into co-production agreements with other studios capable of developing and producing 3-dimensional CGI animated films. Further, we believe that continuing enhancements in commercially available computer hardware and software technology have lowered and will continue to lower barriers to entry for studios or special effects companies which intend to produce computer-animated feature films or other products. For example, SGI’s Alias/Wavefront subsidiary licenses “Maya,” which is its next generation three-dimensional software for creating high quality animation and visual effects. “Maya” incorporates many new features and could be used to make a computer-animated feature film.

The Co-Production Agreement provides that we will develop and produce original computer-animated feature films. Because Disney co-finances the films developed and produced under the Co-Production Agreement, distributes the films under the “Walt Disney Pictures” label and enjoys financial benefits in the event that such films achieve significant box office revenues, we believe that Disney desires such films to be successful.

Nonetheless, during its long history, Disney has been a very successful producer and distributor of its own animated feature films. While the Co-Production Agreement imposes restrictions prohibiting Disney from releasing G-rated films, whether live action or animated, within certain release windows from our films, it is likely that other family-oriented motion pictures distributed by Disney or its affiliates will overlap in the market and compete with our animated feature films.

For example, Mighty Joe Young, released during the 1998 holiday season, competed with A Bug’s Life in the domestic theatrical market, and Pirates of the Caribbean, currently schedule for release in July 2003, may compete with Finding Nemo . Our contractual arrangement with Disney also presents other risks.

There are significant risks associated with the motion picture industry.

The completion and commercial success of a motion picture is extremely unpredictable, and the motion picture industry involves a substantial degree of risk. Each motion picture is an individual artistic work, and its commercial success is primarily determined by audience reaction, which is unpredictable. The completion and commercial success of a motion picture also depends upon other factors, such as:
• personnel availability,
• financing requirements,
• distribution strategy, including the time of the year and the number of screens on which it is shown,
• the number, quality and acceptance of other competing films released into the marketplace at or near the same time,
• critical reviews,
• the availability of alternative forms of entertainment and leisure time activities,
• general economic conditions and political events,
• weather conditions, and
• other tangible and intangible factors.

All of these factors can change and cannot be predicted with certainty. In addition, motion picture attendance is seasonal, with the greatest attendance typically occurring during the summer and holidays. The release of a film during a period of relatively low theater attendance is likely to affect the film’s box office receipts adversely.
Under the terms of the Co-Production Agreement, Pixar is guaranteed theatrical release either during the summer or holiday period. Finding Nemo, which is scheduled for domestic theatrical release on May 30, 2003, is our first film to be released domestically during the summer months, as all of our previous film releases occurred during holiday periods. It is difficult to predict what impact a summer release date may have on the film’s domestic box office receipts or other ancillary revenue streams such as merchandising, relative to our other films. Further, due to the expected release of a large number of family films by Disney and other movie studios in the next several years, it is possible that further saturation of the family film market, particularly those films created by CGI, may adversely impact the commercial success of our films, and therefore have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We face various distribution risks with respect to our feature films.

Under the Feature Film Agreement and the Co-Production Agreement, Disney is required to distribute the animated feature films in a manner consistent with those of Disney’s premier animated films. Currently, distribution of our films generally include (1) worldwide theatrical exhibition, (2) worldwide home video sales, (3) worldwide television licensing, including Pay-Per-View, pay television, network, basic cable and syndication, (4) non-theatrical exhibition, such as airlines, schools and armed forces facilities and (5) marketing of other rights of the picture, which may include licensing of merchandise, such as toys, interactive games and soundtrack recordings. Although the Co-Production Agreement provides us with some protection, we cannot provide any assurances that our feature films made under the Co-Production Agreement will be distributed through all of these outlets. See “Business — Business Model and Products.”

Although we have enjoyed a tremendously successful track record with our first four feature films, we cannot provide any assurances that our future films will enjoy the same level of success. Currently, Disney shares our financial risks associated with the production of the films under the Co-Production Agreement. As our co-production partner, Disney is currently sharing the risk of our films by financing 50% of the production costs. In addition, under the Co-Production Agreement, Disney is responsible for financing 100% of the costs related to the marketing and distribution of the films. In the event that a film does not generate sufficient revenues to offset such costs, Pixar is not responsible for any losses Disney incurs. We cannot provide any assurances that future distribution agreements will provide us with the same level of risk minimization. In addition, as additional entrants emerge in the animation marketplace, there may be increased competition for distribution partners.

We have a limited operating history.

Until 1996, we had generated recurring revenue primarily from the license of our RenderMan® software, amounts we received under software development contracts and fees for animated television commercial development. We expect to generate a substantial majority of our future revenue from the development and production of animated feature films and related products, as we have since 1996. We have, to date, developed, produced and released only four animated feature films, Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2, and Monsters, Inc. Accordingly, we have only a limited operating history in implementing our business model upon which an evaluation of our prospects can be based. Our prospects must be considered in light of the risks, expenses and difficulties frequently encountered by companies in the early stages of a business enterprise, particularly companies in highly competitive markets. To address these risks, we must, among other things, respond to changes in the competitive environment, continue to attract, retain and motivate qualified persons, and continue to upgrade our technologies. We cannot provide any assurances that we will be successful in addressing such risks.

Our current and future commitments may have an adverse impact on our cash balances.

Pursuant to the Co-Production Agreement, we co-financed A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2 and Monsters, Inc., and we are co-financing our next three original animated feature films, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles and Cars . In the future, we may co-finance other derivative works such as sequels and television productions. The development and production costs of Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Cars and films beyond, and any possible future expansion of our studio and headquarters in Emeryville, California, may have an adverse impact on our cash and investment balances. We expect to fully finance films for release after Cars . As of December 28, 2002, we had approximately $339.1 million in cash and investments. We believe that these funds, along with cash provided by operating activities, will be sufficient to meet our anticipated cash needs for working capital and capital expenditures, including the development and production costs of Finding Nemo, The Incredibles and Cars, as well as development and pre-production costs for our first film beyond the Co-Production Agreement. See “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Item 7 of this Form 10-K. To date, we have chosen to use our existing cash resources to fund construction costs and film production costs.

We may continue to use our cash resources for such expenditures, or may choose to finance such capital expenditures through issuance of additional equity or debt securities, by obtaining a credit facility or by some other financing mechanism. The sale of additional equity or convertible debt securities would result in additional dilution to our shareholders. Moreover, we cannot provide any assurances that we will be successful in obtaining future financing, or even if such financing is available, that we will obtain it on favorable terms or on terms providing us with sufficient funds to meet our obligations and objectives.

We depend on our proprietary technology and computer systems for the timely and successful development of our feature films and related products.

We cannot provide any assurances that we will not experience difficulties that could delay or prevent the successful development or production of future animated feature films or other related products. Among other things, because we are dependent upon a large base of software and a large number of computers for the development and production of our animated feature films and related products, an error or defect in the software, a failure in the hardware or a failure of the backup facilities could result in a significant delay in one or more productions in process which, in turn, could result in potentially significant delays in the release dates of our feature films or other products. In the past we have experienced minor delays as a result of such matters. Significant delays in production and significant delays in release dates could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results or financial condition. Further, because we rely mostly on internally developed software, we would not be able to rely upon assistance from third parties in the event that the software fails. See “Business — Technology.”

A single shareholder owns a large percentage of our outstanding stock.

Our Chief Executive Officer, Steve Jobs, beneficially owns approximately 56% of our outstanding Common Stock as of March 4, 2003. As a result, Mr. Jobs, acting alone, is able to exercise sole discretion over all matters requiring shareholder approval, including the election of the entire board of directors and approval of significant corporate transactions, including an acquisition of Pixar. Such concentration of ownership may also have the effect of delaying or preventing a change in control of Pixar, impeding a merger, consolidation, takeover or other business combination involving Pixar, or discouraging a potential acquirer from making a tender offer or otherwise attempting to obtain control of Pixar.
 
You didn't highlight this, which I found interesting:

We expect to fully finance films for release after Cars . As of December 28, 2002, we had approximately $339.1 million in cash and investments. We believe that these funds, along with cash provided by operating activities, will be sufficient to meet our anticipated cash needs for working capital and capital expenditures, including the development and production costs of Finding Nemo, The Incredibles and Cars, as well as development and pre-production costs for our first film beyond the Co-Production Agreement.
Interesting that they aren't talking about another co-production agreement (with Disney or otherwise), but about fully funding production themselves.

Also interesting to hear about the agreement on release dates and limiting direct competition with Disney films (but only G-rated ones). Wonder what additional bennies of this type (which don't involve out-of-pocket monies) Pixar might seek in the next deal (and if someone like Dreamworks would want to do the same given that they have their own animation and CG production going on).
 
Originally posted by EUROPA
You see that is just what I don't get. Lets say Lucas was able to cut a deal with DreamWorks and release Star Wars Ep III with them instead of Fox is there a doubt that it won't rake in the money? I'm just not seeing what Disney is bringing to the table that is bosting these Pixar movies beyond what another comapnay given the same great movie could not do.
Perhaps Star Wars Ep III would still be a huge movie, but it might not reach its potential in areas like international revenues and merchandising. Shrek was a very successful movie, but Monsters Inc. was more successful, and, from what I've read here and elsewhere, Disney's international distribution capabilities are given large credit for the discrepancy.
 












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