although I do tend to agree with those who feel that 'disagreement' can sometimes verge on insulting in these threads, I do have to stick up for some of the usual suspects in that when I determined to purchase a small contract for GFV, no one was successful in making me feel like an idiot for it and in fact several have posted that they do not think it is entirely foolhardy to purchase a small contract direct at a new small resort at which you want the home court advantage. And when/if Poly enters the picture I suspect you may see some resale-only types making an exception.
I do plan on going resale for the bulk of our use points... but if you compare a 29 year resort and a 51 year resort, there are an extra 22 years of enjoyment built into that initial cost (or probable resale value available in 22 years) so you could argue that to some extent the additional costs are mitigated.
That, however, relies on the attraction of the specific resort too because you could always get a 41, 44 or 47 year resort at a decent discount--but say you are comparing just the initial investment of BC resale at $80 to GFV direct at $150, and if you planned to use it for the whole length of the contract ... you COULD make the argument that there is a very small difference in initial cost over the length of the contract. At those prices it's $276 per use year for BC and $294 for GFV. Yes, I understand you are talking additional opportunity costs and all but laying that aside...
Again, I come back to MFs really being what make the difference, and yet it is really hard to make any decisions about such an unknown.
So for a brand new resort, I definitely would not rag on someone for going direct because they are purchasing more length than most of the resale contracts, as well as a priority that is not available on the resale market; but I do agree that unless you really insist on using your points for the Disney collection and other 'direct only benefits, and you understand that those could be removed (although I suspect they'll cling to anything differentiating direct from resale so I think complete discontinuation isn't a huge risk) you should consider purchasing resale any points you do not need for booking at the 11 mo window at the brand new resort.
Hope this makes sense. I do NOT see the logic in buying direct on any resort that has a good resale price unless you really insist on using points any way you want, even very inefficiently (cruises etc). That said, I have plenty of friends who would rather blow the initial $ on any resort they feel like, have the perception of flexibility and the instant gratification of buying direct. Those friends are generally overpaid or have trust funds