Which resort is best for sleep around points?

[CastAStone]

I have been a DVC member for 20 years and these comparisons are silly as these scenarios never happen. I have never seen someone prove that they avoided buying something (car, timeshare, boat, vacation, starbucks coffee) and then invest that money for a long term 6% growth. Sure there are one off stories, but not a conscious decision to avoid buying something and then invest in the stock market as a way to offset that expense.

Truth is - if you liek DVC and have the cash to buy it without financing, then go for it. Try to avoid financing. If you buy SSR or Poly or BLT, then they all are good.

That are many wildcards in timeshares, such as at one point OKW had way lower dues than AKV and now that spread has been closed. Disney does manipulate the system, but I am not sure it is on purpose to devalue something.

Buy where you love and try to get a good deal. There will always be someone that will claim to buy a resort cheaper than you or got a better deal. As long as you buy a good deal resale, you will be better than direct from Disney in terms of saving money.

No doubt. And if you want to stay at the Grand Floridian or Beach Club or BLT, you should buy those, and if you never want to be stuck at Saratoga springs, then you shouldn’t buy that. And if it’s more important to you to own DVC then to analyze every penny, that’s fine!

But when the question is specifically about sleep around points, and even more specifically discussing the value of 2066 expiration versus 2054, I don’t know how else to think about this than by trying to figure out how much to discount those 12 years.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I'm late but this is what I calculated regarding price per point. The big thing to remember is annual dues play a much bigger part than the purchase price because of how many years you're dividing the purchase price over.

If you bought 200 SSR at $85 instead of 200 Poly at $120 and socked the $3,500 you saved into an investment account that netted 6.5% per year after inflation (a decent proxy for the S&P 500, which looking over the last 33 years has had a CAGR of 7.8% after inflation), you’d wind up with the equivalent of $27,000 in todays dollars in year 33. Its hard to predict what a Poly contract with 12 usable years left would cost at that point, but presumably you could buy one for less than the $27K (plus inflation) that you saved.

There is an argument that this same calculation could be made for:
1. Investing the contract purchase price amount + annual dues
2. Pulling money from that investment account to rent points for your trips

You can find scenarios in there where you will not draw the account down to $0 over the contract's life.

 

[Lorana]

I factored that in, or rather, due to the uncertainty around future inflation, I factored inflation out entirely, identifies what the typical investment return rate looks like after inflation, and did all the math in constant 2020 dollars. So It’s the future equivalent of $27k in today’s dollars. If we have 2% inflation it’s $52,000 in 2054 dollars, if inflation averages 3% its $72,000 in 2054, etc.

Ah, okay! Sorry, I missed that.
Well, I'd like to think then that Poly is NOT the equivalent of $135/point in today's dollars in 1957. Unless I had a Poly contract I was trying to sell; in which case, I'd be very happy. ;-)

 

[3 DD love princesses]

If you bought 200 SSR at $85 instead of 200 Poly at $120 and socked the $3,500 you saved into an investment account that netted 6.5% per year after inflation (a decent proxy for the S&P 500, which looking over the last 33 years has had a CAGR of 7.8% after inflation), you’d wind up with the equivalent of $27,000 in todays dollars in year 33. Its hard to predict what a Poly contract with 12 usable years left would cost at that point, but presumably you could buy one for less than the $27K (plus inflation) that you saved.

Thanks. I know we got a good deal so I’m happy with the poly. The 27k savings would have been nice but not having to worry about not being able to move at 7 mo would be a worry for us since Ssr doesn’t interest us right now.

 

[ldo]

not having to worry about not being able to move at 7 mo would be a worry for us since Ssr doesn’t interest us right now.

this is why we bought AKV for a bit more than SSR. It was worth it for us to be able to book our DVC stay at 11 months and not worry about switching unless we saw something better. We are happy to stay at AKV. We've swapped about 50% of the time.

 

[CastAStone]

I'm late but this is what I calculated regarding price per point. The big thing to remember is annual dues play a much bigger part than the purchase price because of how many years you're dividing the purchase price over.
View attachment 513659


There is an argument that this same calculation could be made for:
1. Investing the contract purchase price amount + annual dues
2. Pulling money from that investment account to rent points for your trips

You can find scenarios in there where you will not draw the account down to $0 over the contract's life.

Here's my analysis. It does not include closing costs and assumes 1) 2020 points are gone, and 2) seller pays dues on 2020 points. It's pretty easy to quibble over my assumptions on pricing and annual return rate, and certainly one could run their own analysis with those numbers changed. I didn't include non WDW properties because I'm not interested in them, nor did I include Riviera because you can't use it for SAP (at least not resale). Ignore the direct non-extended OKW total cost; obviously Disney doesn't sell non-extended OKW contracts.


2 other notes: 1) Buying a contract with full 2019 and 2020 points that you can use adds 2 to the 6th column, while buying a fully stripped contract subtracts 1, and that changes the latter columns accordingly.

At the end of the day our "we want to stay here" order is 1) BCV, 2) AKV, and 3) SSR (yes, really). We will (most likely) buy SSR at first in hopes we can swing a few days each winter/spring trip in 1BRs at BCV; if we are persistently getting shut out we'll either buy or start renting BCV points, depending on what the above analysis shows at that time.

 

[3 DD love princesses]

this is why we bought AKV for a bit more than SSR. It was worth it for us to be able to book our DVC stay at 11 months and not worry about switching unless we saw something better. We are happy to stay at AKV. We've swapped about 50% of the time.

Yeah that’s why we did blt over Ssr for our first contact. Paid an extra 6k but knowing I could book blt and move if I wanted to made sense

 

[lovin'fl]

Here's my analysis. It does not include closing costs and assumes 1) 2020 points are gone, and 2) seller pays dues on 2020 points. It's pretty easy to quibble over my assumptions on pricing and annual return rate, and certainly one could run their own analysis with those numbers changed. I didn't include non WDW properties because I'm not interested in them, nor did I include Riviera because you can't use it for SAP (at least not resale). Ignore the direct non-extended OKW total cost; obviously Disney doesn't sell non-extended OKW contracts.
View attachment 513790

2 other notes: 1) Buying a contract with full 2019 and 2020 points that you can use adds 2 to the 6th column, while buying a fully stripped contract subtracts 1, and that changes the latter columns accordingly.

At the end of the day our "we want to stay here" order is 1) BCV, 2) AKV, and 3) SSR (yes, really). We will (most likely) buy SSR at first in hopes we can swing a few days each winter/spring trip in 1BRs at BCV; if we are persistently getting shut out we'll either buy or start renting BCV points, depending on what the above analysis shows at that time.

Our want to stay is BWV (cause we own, though do prefer BCV), AKV and SSR as well.

 

[The Jackal]

I’d be interested in the numbers with poly at $120 vs Ssr at $85

I’d more likely than not be interested in PVB around that price too.

 

[My3kids1989]

My question isn’t new post worthy and just by searching SAP my conclusion of AKL or SSR for SAP seems spot on. I bought BWV, a loaded contract with all of last years points and this years. So I have 300 points to use in the next year, or bank 75 to the next year. But I’m dreading using them for anything but BWV because of the “premium” paid for them. My SO wants to just stay at Wyndham Bonnet Creek. I’m so tired of being out of the bubble that I know I’m going to need more points or I’ll be loading in an Uber for transportation in no time and also paying cash for a towards a trip wo ownership now seems like a waste. We travel to disney at least twice a year for 3-4 nights at a time. Usually Sept and January so not peak season. There is 5 of us so I know we will need 1 BR and 150 points isn’t gonna go far. For my use year should I really try and match my BWV? Is AKL worth the premium? I would love to get the unicorn of the club level rooms but wouldn’t want to buy for just that, it seems unrealistic. We do love the beach so maybe HHI or VB would be okay, but the dues being much higher has me thinking no. I need to do something though if I want to use any points in 2020

 

[poofyo101]

My question isn’t new post worthy and just by searching SAP my conclusion of AKL or SSR for SAP seems spot on. I bought BWV, a loaded contract with all of last years points and this years. So I have 300 points to use in the next year, or bank 75 to the next year. But I’m dreading using them for anything but BWV because of the “premium” paid for them. My SO wants to just stay at Wyndham Bonnet Creek. I’m so tired of being out of the bubble that I know I’m going to need more points or I’ll be loading in an Uber for transportation in no time and also paying cash for a towards a trip wo ownership now seems like a waste. We travel to disney at least twice a year for 3-4 nights at a time. Usually Sept and January so not peak season. There is 5 of us so I know we will need 1 BR and 150 points isn’t gonna go far. For my use year should I really try and match my BWV? Is AKL worth the premium? I would love to get the unicorn of the club level rooms but wouldn’t want to buy for just that, it seems unrealistic. We do love the beach so maybe HHI or VB would be okay, but the dues being much higher has me thinking no. I need to do something though if I want to use any points in 2020

SSR or aulani are the best SAP imo.

 

[sethschroeder]

My question isn’t new post worthy and just by searching SAP my conclusion of AKL or SSR for SAP seems spot on. I bought BWV, a loaded contract with all of last years points and this years. So I have 300 points to use in the next year, or bank 75 to the next year. But I’m dreading using them for anything but BWV because of the “premium” paid for them. My SO wants to just stay at Wyndham Bonnet Creek. I’m so tired of being out of the bubble that I know I’m going to need more points or I’ll be loading in an Uber for transportation in no time and also paying cash for a towards a trip wo ownership now seems like a waste. We travel to disney at least twice a year for 3-4 nights at a time. Usually Sept and January so not peak season. There is 5 of us so I know we will need 1 BR and 150 points isn’t gonna go far. For my use year should I really try and match my BWV? Is AKL worth the premium? I would love to get the unicorn of the club level rooms but wouldn’t want to buy for just that, it seems unrealistic. We do love the beach so maybe HHI or VB would be okay, but the dues being much higher has me thinking no. I need to do something though if I want to use any points in 2020

• Buy at a WDW resort
• Pay attention to MFs
• Pay attention to expiration date

AKL - Longer contract, slightly more expensive MFs, slight more expensive contract, club level option (expensive)
SSR - shorter contract, less expensive MFs, cheaper contract, Treehouse option
OKW - Mid length contract, most expensive MFs, cheaper contract, largest rooms

No real right answer. Have you thought about a direct SAP purchase though? If you go 2x a year might end up saving you money (have to run the numbers).

 

[My3kids1989]

• Buy at a WDW resort
• Pay attention to MFs
• Pay attention to expiration date

AKL - Longer contract, slightly more expensive MFs, slight more expensive contract, club level option (expensive)
SSR - shorter contract, less expensive MFs, cheaper contract, Treehouse option
OKW - Mid length contract, most expensive MFs, cheaper contract, largest rooms

No real right answer. Have you thought about a direct SAP purchase though? If you go 2x a year might end up saving you money (have to run the numbers).

The AP discount is the same for FLR as for DVC members right? This is the only money saver right? We’ve been APH for approx 8 years now, my SO is a FLR. I’m a little late to buying DVC I don’t know how I didn’t know about TIW all these years. I think I would only go direct if my mom wanted to buy direct with me because she wants the discount. Maybe with the promos they have it would be worth it for her and then would keep me with the discount. She just PIF for an AP in May.

 

[CastAStone]

The AP discount is the same for FLR as for DVC members right? This is the only money saver right?

Florida resident is the same for most, it’s actually better than DVC for the Gold AP renewal, At least according to www.allears.net

 

[RoseGold]

But I’m dreading using them for anything but BWV because of the “premium” paid for them.

BWV gives you access to the 2042 point chart also. So in a sense using the points on a more brutal point chart hurts.

Of course the reverse is also true, and I feel like I get a steal using Poly points on 2042 resorts.

 

[montreid]

AUL subsidized - especially for west coast DVC owners -- more coming online recently. - lower ROFR risk too

 

[zavandor]

Here's my analysis. It does not include closing costs and assumes 1) 2020 points are gone, and 2) seller pays dues on 2020 points. It's pretty easy to quibble over my assumptions on pricing and annual return rate, and certainly one could run their own analysis with those numbers changed. I didn't include non WDW properties because I'm not interested in them, nor did I include Riviera because you can't use it for SAP (at least not resale). Ignore the direct non-extended OKW total cost; obviously Disney doesn't sell non-extended OKW contracts.
View attachment 513790

2 other notes: 1) Buying a contract with full 2019 and 2020 points that you can use adds 2 to the 6th column, while buying a fully stripped contract subtracts 1, and that changes the latter columns accordingly.

At the end of the day our "we want to stay here" order is 1) BCV, 2) AKV, and 3) SSR (yes, really). We will (most likely) buy SSR at first in hopes we can swing a few days each winter/spring trip in 1BRs at BCV; if we are persistently getting shut out we'll either buy or start renting BCV points, depending on what the above analysis shows at that time.

Interesting numbers, thank you for taking the time.
Dividing the total buy in cost for the number fo years remaining is something many do, even some brokers in their analysis of the most convenient resort. However, additional remaining time 30 years from now are not valued that much by the market. The vast majority of OKW owners refused a 15 years extension for $1 per year. And extended contracts used to fetch just $7 or $8 more on the resale market (I haven't checked in a while, though). Years so far in the future are valued around 50 cents per year by the market. Add to that the higher MF and the math in your chart above is easily confirmed. SSR is still the best resort for SAP.

At the end of the day our "we want to stay here" order is 1) BCV, 2) AKV, and 3) SSR (yes, really). We will (most likely) buy SSR at first in hopes we can swing a few days each winter/spring trip in 1BRs at BCV; if we are persistently getting shut out we'll either buy or start renting BCV points, depending on what the above analysis shows at that time.

Buying SAP to stay all around in 1BR is a very good strategy. Availability in 1BR is very very good even at difficult resorts. At least, it was pre-Covid. However, someone who isn't willing to stay at SSR should never buy SSR anyway, regardless of what the wallet says. There will be moments when you have to book your resort (for example, a DisneyRun week end) and chances to switch are slim. A few thousands $ saving is not worth being unhappy while on vacation.
Incidentally, I think SSR is a lovely resort and I happily stay there from time to time.

 

[sethschroeder]

Buying SAP to stay all around in 1BR is a very good strategy.

I would say its only good though if you either a) want a 1br regardless or b) must stay at a bunch of different resorts at hard to get times of the year.

I say this because while you pay less upfront on more points you end up paying way more on MFs to be a 1BR vs a Studio. Its fine if you want a 1BR but someone who is going to be happy in a Studio is likely better off paying a little more to get a better home resort.

 

[zavandor]

Its fine if you want a 1BR but someone who is going to be happy in a Studio is likely better off paying a little more to get a better home resort.

Many people say that a Timeshare is worth only to stay in larger accommodations. Personally, I am a very happy SAPper and I alway stay in studios. But it requires some effort and a lot of flexibility.
However there are people who book only 1BR and those people will be the happiest with SAP.

 

[CastAStone]

I would say its only good though if you either a) want a 1br regardless or b) must stay at a bunch of different resorts at hard to get times of the year.

I say this because while you pay less upfront on more points you end up paying way more on MFs to be a 1BR vs a Studio. Its fine if you want a 1BR but someone who is going to be happy in a Studio is likely better off paying a little more to get a better home resort.

Many people say that a Timeshare is worth only to stay in larger accommodations. Personally, I am a very happy SAPper and I alway stay in studios. But it requires some effort and a lot of flexibility.
However there are people who book only 1BR and those people will be the happiest with SAP.

1BRs are also by far the worst value vs paying cash to Disney, at least among the 3 main room types.

I think DVC makes sense for studio accommodations for people who are deluxe-or-die because the savings are so significant vs cash, but ultimately we wouldn't be doing it if we weren't looking to stay in 1BRs; if we were doing studios/hotel rooms we'd probably stay at one of the DS resorts or Swolphin and save as much as the DVC savings. But we don't want to sleep in the same room with our kids, and we don't want to eat breakfast out, and with DVC we will be able to afford a room that we want to stay in. The fact that 1BRs are more accommodating for SAP is just a nice bonus that is pushing us toward making our first purchase at SSR despite our deep desire to own at BCV.