which 2-Bdrm category for best waitlist success? + guarantee Ded vs Lockoff, 2Queens?

[disneyberry]

(3/13 edit: this thread has gone off topic so i changed the title to better reflect the discussion. basically, i gave up on the overanalyzing of the situation this first post is talking about )



i've been staring at these numbers for a while, speculating about potential future DVC trips, and have now gotten myself really confused.
so i figured i'd post and ask here for opinions... maybe someone else can make some more sense from this.

the following is data about 2-bdrms at VWL, BCV, and BWV that i've collected from this board.
(i'm assuming there are 7 different categories of 2-bdrms that you can book. so that is how i calculated the number of rooms)


#Units / Resort + Category (2-Bdrms)

* 44 / VWL Dedicated 2-Bdrm
* 45 / VWL 2-Bdrm Lockoff
* 25 / BCV Dedicated 2-Bdrm with 2 Queen Beds in 2nd bedroom
* 53 / BCV Dedicated 2-Bdrm with Pullout Sofabed in 2nd bedroom
* 74 / BCV 2-Bdrm Lockoff
* 36 / BWV 2-Bdrm Lockoff Standard View
*109 / BWV 2-Bdrm Lockoff Preferred View


based on these numbers, i was trying to think about the following scenario:

you call MS to try to book a 6-night trip around 6 months out from your check-out date.
all 2-bdrms are completely sold out everywhere except OKW.
you book an OKW 2-bdrm as a backup, and then proceed to get on 7 different waitlists.
you don't have enough points to do day-by-day waitlists, so you waitlist your entire 6-night stay at each of the 7 2-bdrm categories listed above.

which one of those 7 categories do you have the best chance of having that waitlist come through?

at first i was thinking, of course BWV Preferred View Lockoff would have the best chance because there could be up to 109 of them. but, then again, because they are Lockoffs and a lot of them could be potentially split as 1-bdrms and studios, doesn't that essentially make it very unlikely that there are actually 109 2-bdrm lockoffs available? especially because studios and 1-bdrms seem to be more popular?

so, the actual number of lockoffs that would be 2-bdrms is probably a lot lower than the listed maximum number, right?

this is the point that i started confusing myself.
so... please take a look at this scenario and provide your thoughts.
you can also vote for the one you think would have the best chance strictly based on the number of rooms available for each category, but taking into consideration that lockoffs can be split into 1-bdrms + studios.
i was also interested what people think is the ranking of best chance to worst chance of those 7 categories.

 

[DVC Nut]

You may want to modify your poll....

For BCV, when you book a dedicated 2BR, you do not book/wait list for different bedding arrangements for the second bedroom. From what I understand it would be considered a request only to have either 2 queens or 1 queen and 1 sleeper sofa.

As for my opinion on the wait list situation, The dedicated two bedroom homes would be easier to get than a lockoff. From an inventory standpoint, all studios and 1 bedroom homes can be sold separately. The only time a 2BR lockoff would be available is if a studio and a 1BR are both available.

Why not put yourself on the waitlist for any 2BR home anywhere but OKW? You can do this and then just see what comes availble first.

To be honest its not even worth worrying about because it all boils down to who has what booked and who ends up cancelling. Also the number of people on the waitlist ahead of you needs to be factored in. If there are 20 people on the BWV waitlist and 2 on the VWL waitlist. I would think you have a better chance at getting VWL.

There are just to many unknown factors to be able to make it a scientific/mathematical situation.

 

[Terry S]

DVC Nut... When you book a 2 Bedroom Dedicated at BCV you have to reserve NOT request a 2 bedroom Dedicated with 2 queen beds or a 2 bedroom Dedicated with a queen bed and queen pull out sofa. This was a recent change when they changed the bedding.

 

[Richyams]

You are laboring under some serious misconceptions.

You can't waitlist for most of your catagories, most of them are only requests.

The std view at BWV would be the least likely to come through.

 

[InstImpres]

Disneyberry -

You have me slightly confused by the poll. I would think (thanks to my 10th grad prob/stat teacher) that it is just simple math. Your odds of cancellation have to be best in the *109 / BWV 2-Bdrm Lockoff Preferred View
and worst in the * 25 / BCV Dedicated 2-Bdrm with 2 Queen Beds in 2nd bedroom. Though I do believe it is pure luck!

 

[disneyberry]

heh. i guess i was asking for it by putting in that 8th option in my poll, huh?

anyway, yeah i know i am overanalyzing the scenario, but i have a tendency to do that.

but, DVC Nut, what you wrote in your reply is really what i was wondering about...
how, with the dedicated 2-Bdrm categories, you know there are definitely up to 44 of them at VWL, and 78 of them at BCV.
but, in theory, all the lockoff 2-Bdrms at any resort could be booked up as 1-Bdrms + Studios... so there's a chance (even though seems unlikely) that there are no lockoff 2-bdrms at all...

btw, i did read a number of reports here on the board about the new BCV 2-Bdrm Dedicated room category that allowed guaranteed 2 Queen Beds in the second bedroom. that is why i made the poll that way.
of course i will double check with MS on this when the time comes that i might have to book or waitlist a BCV dedicated 2-Bdrm.

anyway, thanks for the votes/opinions so far.


oh, and i also had got the impression that when you book 2-Bdrms, you must choose either Dedicated or Lockoff, and that it's a category, not a request.
is that not correct?
i guess what i'm wondering is, Rich, you mentioned there are some "serious misconceptions"... could you possibly point out which assumptions are misconceptions? i am still trying to learn all of this, so if i am misintrepreting any info, please do let me know what the correct info is! i would really appreciate it. thank you!

 

[Richyams]

oh, and i also had got the impression that when you book 2-Bdrms, you must choose either Dedicated or Lockoff, and that it's a category, not a request.
is that not correct?

No, that is not correct.

You reserve a two bedroom, I was not even aware that they were calling those two different room layouts at BCV, reservable catagories....maybe because of how they messed up, they took on the cost and complication of setting up these catagories.

I believe you ca request a lock off, it may possibly even be able to be guaranteed, but you most certainly do not have to make that choice if you don't want to.

 

[robinb]

Personally, I would get the 2 BR at OKW and put yourself on the waitlist for the resort you really want to stay at. Otherwise, you're bopping from one waitlist to the other until you finally settle on what you wanted in the first place.

It's been my experience (and the experience of my friends who only travel over Christmas/New Years) that the waitlist works quite well. I have always been able to get what I want on the waitlist, including a relatively last-minute trip I booked just a few weeks ago at the BCV in a studio for the week before July 4th. I came off the waitlist in less than 2 weeks.

The good thing about having a back-up at OKW, if you don't get into another resort you can make yourself feel better by knowing that you'll be in the biggest 2BR on Disney property .

 

[castleri]

Booked a 2BR at BCV yesterday and was told only availability was for second BR with sofa and bed - no availability for 2 beds for time we are going so guess these now have category status not just requests.

 

[Richyams]

Wow, that really cuts down the value of BCV compared to BWV even further.

 

[Terry S]

Richyams... Why does that cut down the value of BCV compared to BWV? If you reserve at the 11 month window, you could almost gaurantee a 2 bedroom with 2 queen beds in the 2nd bedroom, you can't get that at BWV.

 

[DVC Nut]

When booking a 2 BR, you CAN book either a dedicated OR a lock off specifically (not a request), but you are not guaranteed.

Example: You book a dedicated 2BR home, for some reason (be it maintence or another situation) there is not a dedicated two bedroom home available when you arrive at the resort. The resort has every right to give you a two bedroom lockoff. (and vice versa).

When people book a lockoff and expect to downsize to either the studio or one bedroom during their stay, there is no guarantee to stay in the same home and just close the door in between the two rooms. This is because it may happen that the lockoff portion of the reservation needs to be changed to a dedicated two bedroom home. (as a note: this rarely happens but it has)

 

[Terry S]

DVC Nut... 2 Bedroom Lock-off and Dedicateds are gauranteed just as much as any other room. Using your example, if there is a full resort and someone who has reserved a studio checks in and there is no studios left due to a maintenace issue, they may end up in a 1 bedroom.

 

[DVC Nut]

Terry S - I'm not trying to start an arguement, but as a former OKW room assignor. I know for a fact that dedicated and lockoff homes can be interchanged if necessary. It is never done unless there is no other option, but sometimes due to inventory needs it is done. I hate to say this, but if the resort is oversold or rooms are unable to be occupied due to maintenance for studios and one bedrooms and we have dedicated two bedrooms available, a lockoff is converted to a dedicated home.

 

[disneyberry]

wait, i'm still confused by this.
i'm still not convinced that the way i set up my poll is wrong.
it seems there are indeed all of those 7 different categories of 2-Bdrms for the 3 resorts (VWL, BCV, BWV).

my understanding of category is, you book a 2-Bdrm Dedicated, so you can assume you will get a 2-Bdrm Dedicated when you check-in.
i mean, it's true that anything could happen, half the resort could burn down or something and in that case, no, you aren't guaranteed that a room at the resort, much less a category.
but, it seems that the point is, when you book a category, you are guaranteed that category... UNLESS some unexpected/unplanned circumstance (like a water pipe bursts and puts a bunch of rooms out of commission unexpectedly) happens.

isn't it just like with non-DVC resorts? you book a Water View category, you can expect you'll get what you booked, a Water View room... right?


back to the whether i have misintrepreted info on these boards, and my assumptions that there are actually all those categories of 2-bdrms...

can anyone please verify this w/ MS?
i really want to make sure i've got the right information!

basically, there's two things we're debating

1. can you guarantee a Dedicated vs. Lockoff 2-bdrm, i.e. are those set up as categories and NOT requests?
   
2. at BCV, can you guarantee 2 Queen Beds vs. Pullout Sofa when booking a dedicated 2-Bdrm, i.e. there is such a thing as the category 2-Bdrm Dedicated w/ 2 Queen Beds in 2nd Bedroom
   [/list=1]

 

[DVC Nut]

I cannot say one way or the other for the BCV situation, but as for the dedicated/lockoff one....

They are indeed separate categories you book one or the other. BUT....

The room assignor has every right to change a dedicated home to a lockoff (and vice versa) really anytime they need to without any explanation. It is the same number of points and basically the same home.

The only reason I brought this up is that I know a lot of people book a lockoff and try to connect it to a studio or 1BR reservation and think they are guaranteed the same home. This is not the way it works. It might have been a little off topic for this thread. Sorry to cause an issue. Everything I'm saying is meant in the spirit to help inform and clarify any confusion.

 

[disneyberry]

Originally posted by DVC Nut
The only reason I brought this up is that I know a lot of people book a lockoff and try to connect it to a studio or 1BR reservation and think they are guaranteed the same home. This is not the way it works. It might have been a little off topic for this thread. Sorry to cause an issue. Everything I'm saying is meant in the spirit to help inform and clarify any confusion.

Not an issue at all, DVC Nut! i pretty much helped steer my thread off topic anyway (see i edited the thread title also) 'cause i decided my original question was really crazy overanalyzing. but, because it was pointed out that my assumptions might be wrong, i want to make sure i've got the right information!

so, it's very helpful that we discuss these things. and really great to have a former room-assignor on these boards! thanks, DVC Nut.


hm... but actually another question for DVC Nut, or anyone else...
do you agree about my intrepretation of category though? isn't it true that you're supposed to be guaranteed the room category you booked, EXCEPT when there is some unexpected circumstance that causes you to not get your category?

i mean, it's still completely different from a request right? because requests really don't mean a thing (hence the NOT guaranteed disclaimer). you can't expect to get requests at all, you really don't even have the right to get upset if you don't get your requests...

 

[DVC Nut]

Disneyberry - First, this is a great topic. One that there are usually many misconceptions about. I agree that the more informed members are, the more smoothly the entire DVC operation runs. It is when rumors/misinformation make it around that problems occur.

I would say its a safe bet that you'll get exactly what you booked unless some unexpected situation arises.

This is the taboo word of the day....

"OVERSOLD"

It does happen that the people who work with rooms revenue will decide to sell/book more studios than we really have (with the intention that we can upgrade a non-member to a larger home if necessary). This would be a case where we might have 2BR homes available and be overbooked in studios and 1BR homes. This would also be the same situation where we would take a lockoff and change it to a dedicated 2BR home. This would give us 1 less dedicated 2BR but in effect give us back 1 more studio and 1 more 1BR.

Complicated/perhaps too technical....

Facts are:
1. A member will not be upgraded unless absolutely necessary, the non members are the ones who receive this benefit (hey, sometimes those non members who got a 1BR, fall in love with it and actually buy DVC!!!)

2. They reasons we give you in person for a change from a dedicated to a lockoff (or the other way around) are not necessarily the 100% truth. The word "OVERSOLD" is strictly forbidden (it really ends up causing more of an issue than there was in the first place).