Where's the logic in longer FP+ wait times?

[Shaden]

You may be right in that attendance may indeed by higher right now - a confluence of spring breaks, or the New Fantasyland may indeed by drawing in more people. Photos of huge crowds, closing off the parking lots, etc. would all be signs that more people are at the parks. An increase in attendance would indeed drive up the wait times for the rides. However, many people are blaming FP+ instead, and those two things just aren't connected.

As to the numbers - I said those numbers were for WDW, but that was incorrect - the 120 million is for Disney parks as a whole, not just WDW (in my defense, I didn't say it was MK though). Some people are saying "The waits were nonexistent to 30 minutes a year ago, and they're 60 minutes now, so the lines at every attraction in every WDW park have doubled", and I find that hard to believe. When looking at the attendance of the top parks around the world for the past 5 years (Wikipedia), the largest single year jump on the record was at California Adventure from 2011-2012; attendance jumped 22.6% when Carsland launched.

Yes, attendance will fluctuate, and certain days (i.e. spring break) will always be higher than others, but the WDW parks have always experienced single-digit growth at best. There's no way that FP+ somehow magically doubled the crowds forever.

And there are also plenty of good reasons to suggest WDW is busy this week when compared to same week in 2013, including when various school and college spring breaks fall (different place to place and even year to year), terrible long winter in midwest and NE USA, and evidence of stronger economy. So it really hard to only focus on FP+ as the only differences in lines and crowds between March 26 2013 to March 26 2014.

The waits have increased. Attendance is not up significantly. Its really simple and in black and white.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...times-at-disney-world-attractions/#more-13129

People can question if Josh knows what he is talking about, but, anyone who has a clue recognizes that he does know what he is talking about.

Note that these times do NOT include spring break, so even before SB crowds, wait times for "secondary" rides have increased significantly.

You will also note "spring break" crowds really shouldn't be able to account for this either, we wont hit the peak of that until late april.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/0...t-disney-world/comment-page-1/#comment-169041


All you need is the research ...

 

[soccer mom]

I don't think the FP lines are necessarily longer....they are just SLOWER!

 

[JeremyGNJ]

The waits have increased. Attendance is not up significantly. Its really simple and in black and white.

This can mean ONLY one thing. People are riding more rides each than before.

 

[redrosesix]

True, we won't know the actual numbers until Disney releases them, or at the end of the year. But nothing other than high double-digit growth in attendance could account for the numbers people are claiming here.

For example, let's say the average second tier ride had a wait of 30 minutes. People are reporting that those rides are now 45-60 minutes. To do that, IF EVERYTHING ELSE WAS EQUAL, would require a 50% and 100% spike in attendance, respectively.

It's not just Josh's numbers - attendance has NEVER spiked that high. Collectively, the biggest spike WDW has seen in year was from 2011-2012, when WDW attendance went up 4%.

A 4% increase in a 30 minute wait would be 72 seconds. A 4% increase in a 60 minute wait would be an extra two and a half minutes.

Average yearly attendance at WDW has been hovering around 120 million a year for many years now. Unless that number suddenly shoots up to 200 million or more in 2014, then the perceived increases in attendance are just that - perceived.

This post was just brilliant. Especially the bolded part.

I've posted this before, but I honestly didn't feel like it was more crowded for our dates in Feb (week before Pres Day, Pres Day week, and the week after). If anything there may have been less people for dining and for fireworks.

 

[redrosesix]

I can see there is a delay getting through the fastpass checkpoint but that time should be made up getting to the ride platform. I don't think any fastpass allowed you to go from the checkpoint right to the ride car without stopping. There's still going to be a line getting into the cars. So unless the ride loading is slower, I don't see where the delay at the checkpoint makes a difference. Just like the old "keep up with the person in front of you" really doesn't make the line move faster. The same number of people will be loaded at one time.

There are many rides we used to do where having a FP would take us right to the cars, or at least right to the merge area. But this is no longer the case with higher crowd levels at most times of the day.

But I think it's a mistake to compare the two systems at all. I look at it like this... they got rid of FP- and the new system is more like an ADR for attractions. Having a reservation for that ride at that time doesn't mean you will ride right away anymore than an ADR guarantees that you will be seated at the time of your reservation. It's more like you have a reservation to wait for your spot at that time.

Seriously, I think if they had just chosen another name for the new system people would feel less bewildered by the long return lines. But if they had then it would be really obvious you weren't getting a FP anymore at all.

 

[DPCummerbund]

I can see there is a delay getting through the fastpass checkpoint but that time should be made up getting to the ride platform. I don't think any fastpass allowed you to go from the checkpoint right to the ride car without stopping. There's still going to be a line getting into the cars. So unless the ride loading is slower, I don't see where the delay at the checkpoint makes a difference. Just like the old "keep up with the person in front of you" really doesn't make the line move faster. The same number of people will be loaded at one time.

Exactly! This is precisely what I've been trying to say! It doesn't matter how many holdups there are in the line, how long they are, or what's causing them. The only thing that matters is that the people in the loading area are getting on the ride. If that's happening, then no other changes to the queue area matter at all.

 

[DPCummerbund]

A very poor one, though, not relevant to the discussion. One instance of an unrelated occurrence is not appropriate to explain a systemic change.

But no one has even demonstrated that a systemic change has even happened. The Fantasyland expansion, Spring Break timing, or other factors could explain why it feels more crowded. People may not be making "apples to apples" comparisons with other days that had similar crowd levels. Or, it could be that more people are riding the rides right now. Saying that FP+ is "the only thing that has changed" could be wrong (and probably is wrong) for several different reasons.

 

[redrosesix]

But no one has even demonstrated that a systemic change has even happened. The Fantasyland expansion, Spring Break timing, or other factors could explain why it feels more crowded. People may not be making "apples to apples" comparisons with other days that had similar crowd levels. Or, it could be that more people are riding the rides right now. Saying that FP+ is "the only thing that has changed" could be wrong (and probably is wrong) for several different reasons.

New Fantasyland has been open for over a year now -- the only real change was the addition of ETWB. Just saying...

 

[estherhead]

Have people on here really been waiting in longer lines? Or have they been skipping the rides because MDE shows long lines? We have found that the huge majority of wait times on MDE are grossly exaggerated.

That being said, it certainly is FP+ fault. Yesterday I overheard this conversation between three teen girls leaving TSM. "Ok. We've done RnR, ToT, and TSM. Our last FP is for some kind of movie ride." "Should we ride it?" "Why not? We can skip the line and dinner isn't for another 2 hours."

Who knows if they will enjoy it. But having the FP caused them to ride something they had no interest in.

Here is what doesn't work with FP+
1) it causes people to ride things they don't care about
2) it jams up walkways
3) it takes away spontaneity
4) it reduces how many people they put on rides
5) it stresses out CMs
6) it's much harder to ride favorites twice.

Here us what does work with FP+

1) you can go into a park with your band and a cell phone and that is it
2) despite the lines in walkways, it is fast to use one
3) Pixar Place isn't a zoo
4) we have found MDE to work and can plan easily. And we were able to change our today last night and get everything we wanted.
5) you don't have to run around as much.

I really like the concept of FP+ and my magic bands. But I would like to see the following changes. Tho I realize they would need a LOT more capacity on MDE for this to work.

1) no more 60 days out. Morning of resort guests cn make FP+ two hours before park opening, offsite guests one hour. The two hour advantage is mainly due to EMH.
2) you can get as many Fp+ as you want but just one at a time.
3) and two hours between them.
4) rides like POTC and IASW don't have FP.

If they made it work like that, similar to FP I would like it.

You don't get more planned and structured than my family. And it was still too planned out for us.

 

[Disneylover99]

Exactly! This is precisely what I've been trying to say! It doesn't matter how many holdups there are in the line, how long they are, or what's causing them. The only thing that matters is that the people in the loading area are getting on the ride. If that's happening, then no other changes to the queue area matter at all.

But as I mentioned in a previous post, I have seen hold ups because of FP+ which caused rides to run at less then full capacity. So people heading to the loading area, were not able to get to the ride on time. The cm's are not going to stop the ride and wait. This does affect wait times for people in both the standby and FP lines.

Now I don't know how often this happens or how long it takes to rectify the problem and I would guess that the impact it has on wait times overall would be minimal, assuming it doesn't happen very often. But it does happen from time to time.

 

[redrosesix]

Have people on here really been waiting in longer lines? Or have they been skipping the rides because MDE shows long lines? We have found that the huge majority of wait times on MDE are grossly exaggerated.

That being said, it certainly is FP+ fault. Yesterday I overheard this conversation between three teen girls leaving TSM. "Ok. We've done RnR, ToT, and TSM. Our last FP is for some kind of movie ride." "Should we ride it?" "Why not? We can skip the line and dinner isn't for another 2 hours."

Who knows if they will enjoy it. But having the FP caused them to ride something they had no interest in.

Here is what doesn't work with FP+
1) it causes people to ride things they don't care about
2) it jams up walkways
3) it takes away spontaneity
4) it reduces how many people they put on rides
5) it stresses out CMs
6) it's much harder to ride favorites twice.

Here us what does work with FP+

1) you can go into a park with your band and a cell phone and that is it
2) despite the lines in walkways, it is fast to use one
3) Pixar Place isn't a zoo
4) we have found MDE to work and can plan easily. And we were able to change our today last night and get everything we wanted.
5) you don't have to run around as much.

I really like the concept of FP+ and my magic bands. But I would like to see the following changes. Tho I realize they would need a LOT more capacity on MDE for this to work.

1) no more 60 days out. Morning of resort guests cn make FP+ two hours before park opening, offsite guests one hour. The two hour advantage is mainly due to EMH.
2) you can get as many Fp+ as you want but just one at a time.
3) and two hours between them.
4) rides like POTC and IASW don't have FP.

If they made it work like that, similar to FP I would like it.

You don't get more planned and structured than my family. And it was still too planned out for us.

Excellent post

We did wait in longer lines than what we were used to for February -- for rides that were almost a walk on for us before, sometimes the FP return line was longer than what we were used to. But we also waited on a few when the MDE showed SB lines were long. Having said that, we found that with many of the SB lines the posted times were nothing like the actual times and it all depended on how many people entered the FP return line at that time.

I would love not having to book rides 60 days out. Weather in February can vary so much, even day to day. One year, my DD was calling BTMRR the Big Brrrrr (but the ride was basically a walk on, so we did it 3 times in a row one night). We had to wear hats and gloves to be outside at all. But there were other days that same trip that we could wear shorts and tank tops. Once offsite guests can book in advance, I don't think we'll be able to get headliners unless we book before their starting date unless people cancel FPs.

I agree with most of your suggestions but I wonder how long FPs will last each day if people will be able to get more than 3. The ability to change while in the park is going to be dramatically reduced if there is nothing to change to. And I still think the biggest problem with FP+ is that the return line has absolute priority over SB -- and the more FPs there are, the more this is going to be an issue.

 

[redrosesix]

But as I mentioned in a previous post, I have seen hold ups because of FP+ which caused rides to run at less then full capacity. So people heading to the loading area, were not able to get to the ride on time. The cm's are not going to stop the ride and wait. This does affect wait times for people in both the standby and FP lines.

Now I don't know how often this happens or how long it takes to rectify the problem and I would guess that the impact it has on wait times overall would be minimal, assuming it doesn't happen very often. But it does happen from time to time.

ITA with this -- it does affect capacity, especially on rides where one side is now dedicated to FP. The only way to rectify it is on a case by case basis, which is how they should have set them up in the first place -- but didn't. I sincerely wish they hadn't added FP to rides that didn't have or need them before. But I don't think there's any going back on that, since they at least provide an option for FP selection when no other attractions are available.