Where's the logic in longer FP+ wait times?

[redsbe]

There is NO SPIKE in attendance.

We know this. Josh at easywdw noted a 1.5% increase in attendance, and that can not account for the increase in wait times. How many times do people have to point this out ?

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

So how does anyone real know if WDW has a spike in attendance?

Truth is no one really knows and the impact of FP+ and crowds will not be clear for months, perhaps full year after complete roll out

 

[Shaden]

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

So how does anyone real know if WDW has a spike in attendance?

Truth is no one really knows and the impact of FP+ and crowds will not be clear for months, perhaps full year after complete roll out

Josh would not post things unless he has data to back them up.

And this is one of the busiest times of year ... sooo

Though I do agree we wont know the full picture for a while yet, Josh is accurate in what he posts, and you can't deny the increased wait times he posted, nor his citation of crowds.

That only applies for the data set he posted mind you, which is now from a few weeks back. Maybe the last few weeks have had higher crowds, maybe they have had lower crowds. All we can judge is the data set he posted, and by that, FP+ is increasing average wait times, particularly for secondary attractions.

 

[over50visits]

Again, I can see how changes to the system, being unable to use your normal schedule, and technical glitches are annoying. But "longer lines" (at least by thread count) are the number 1 complaint about FP+, and I have yet to see any real reason why that might even POSSIBLY be the case.

We have been going MANY years at all seasons. Since FP+ there are long lines at Haunted Mansion, Pirates, Small World, living with the land, riverboat, Figment...rides where there was never a wait. I have no doubt People Mover, Carousel, Sounds, and others are close behind.

We just saw long lines of unhappy guests at the FP+ booths at EPCOT. Standing in a long line to get a pass to stand in line.

After our ONE "headliner" ride and two throwaway rides, all we had left to do was shop. We did NOT pay a lot of hard earned money to go shopping. We do not think standing in a 45-60 minute line for a 5 minute "second tied" ride is fun. This was depressing, sad, and we know what has happened.

What has changed in the past 6 months?

FP+

Duh.

 

[DPCummerbund]

There is NO SPIKE in attendance.

We know this. Josh at easywdw noted a 1.5% increase in attendance, and that can not account for the increase in wait times. How many times do people have to point this out ?

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

So how does anyone real know if WDW has a spike in attendance?

Truth is no one really knows and the impact of FP+ and crowds will not be clear for months, perhaps full year after complete roll out

True, we won't know the actual numbers until Disney releases them, or at the end of the year. But nothing other than high double-digit growth in attendance could account for the numbers people are claiming here.

For example, let's say the average second tier ride had a wait of 30 minutes. People are reporting that those rides are now 45-60 minutes. To do that, IF EVERYTHING ELSE WAS EQUAL, would require a 50% and 100% spike in attendance, respectively.

It's not just Josh's numbers - attendance has NEVER spiked that high. Collectively, the biggest spike WDW has seen in year was from 2011-2012, when WDW attendance went up 4%.

A 4% increase in a 30 minute wait would be 72 seconds. A 4% increase in a 60 minute wait would be an extra two and a half minutes.

Average yearly attendance at WDW has been hovering around 120 million a year for many years now. Unless that number suddenly shoots up to 200 million or more in 2014, then the perceived increases in attendance are just that - perceived.

 

[heyitsmejosh]

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

So how does anyone real know if WDW has a spike in attendance?

Truth is no one really knows and the impact of FP+ and crowds will not be clear for months, perhaps full year after complete roll out

all the theme parks and pretty much everything in florida has been extra busy this week, its probably because more schools ended up using this week as spring break then usual

 

[DPCummerbund]

We have been going MANY years at all seasons. Since FP+ there are long lines at Haunted Mansion, Pirates, Small World, living with the land, riverboat, Figment...rides where there was never a wait. I have no doubt People Mover, Carousel, Sounds, and others are close behind.

We just saw long lines of unhappy guests at the FP+ booths at EPCOT. Standing in a long line to get a pass to stand in line.


What has changed in the past 6 months?

FP+

Duh.

I got a cup of coffee on my way to work today. I normally don't. I then got stuck in a traffic jam. What has changed in my morning routine? The coffee. So, the coffee must have caused the traffic jam.

Correlation does not imply causation.


I highlighted a bit from your post there. "Long lines of unhappy guests"... that's the overwhelming theme in this forum. FP+ is a mess, and everyone is waiting in longer lines, and everyone is unhappy about it.

Again, that just can't be the case. If you're riding fewer rides than you used to, then someone else is riding MORE. If you're unhappy, then someone else is happy.

 

[Love Tink]

Okay, I haven't read through all the threads on the epic problems of FP+, but I have read a bunch, and I still don't understand the problem.

FP+ doesn't - in fact CANNOT - make lines longer overall for everyone. There are only two things that can do that:
1) Reduced ride capacity, and
2) Increased crowds.

3) A much higher number of FP being given out. If giving out 1,000 FP a day (number just an example) allowed lines to flow at their previous rate, then perhaps Disney is now handing out 1,500 a day for the same attraction. That would cause both the FP and SB lines to be longer.

FP lines used to run smoothly and basically merge into SB lines, most of the time. Now perhaps there are too many FPs being given out, causing two long lines - not one line and one light, mergeable stream - and you get a bottleneck. Bottlenecks jam up the flow and cause delays. Everybody's wait gets longer.

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

A) Because almost all of Florida and much of the South has spring break this week.

B) Numbers may not be released to the public, but that does not mean they don't *exist*. Sometimes people know more than we do.

 

[slickpoetry]

Is the general consensus amongst those complaining about longer lines that the average wait for headliners has decreased or stayed the same, but the average wait for second and third tier attractions has skyrocketed?


If so, that's a simple explanation and someone gave it earlier in the thread.

 

[FlipHipster]

I'll play Vizzini for a few for the sake of discussion...

Posted this in another thread but seems relevant:

More people using FP results in longer waits for both FP and SB. It's intrinsic to the way the system works. FP is only "Fast" because you get priority over the SB line, not because you are magically beamed onto the ride instantly or the ride loads faster because you are in the right line instead of the left line.

500 people in a FP line load at the exact same pace as 500 people in a SB line that isn't held back for FP priority. Those people in the FP line are not getting on any faster than if they were 500 deep in SB with no FP line. So as more and more people show up for FP, there is going to be a line and SB will be impacted. If Disney allocates more slots to FP, they are essentially making FP the new SB and SB is good luck.

There's no way they want to have long lines snaking through the parks its not something they want to perpetuate. It will probably get worse before it gets better. The only question is how Disney manages the FP allocations to find balance and I believe they will eventually, hopefully.

Have fun stormin the castle boys...

 

[DPCummerbund]

FP lines used to run smoothly and basically merge into SB lines, most of the time. Now perhaps there are too many FPs being given out, causing two long lines - not one line and one light, mergeable stream - and you get a bottleneck. Bottlenecks jam up the flow and cause delays. Everybody's wait gets longer.

This only happens if the delays in the line cause empty cars/boats to go through. If so, it's not an inherent flaw in FP+, it just means that Disney needs to retrain CMs. It doesn't change the amount of people that the ride can handle.

3) A much higher number of FP being given out. If giving out 1,000 FP a day (number just an example) allowed lines to flow at their previous rate, then perhaps Disney is now handing out 1,500 a day for the same attraction. That would cause both the FP and SB lines to be longer.

But if you have the same number of people in the park (and no numbers have shown otherwise), then all it means is that some people are riding MORE rides than they used to, while others are riding less. I can see how the commando-types are upset that they are riding less, but those who get to ride MORE rides than they used to are undoubtedly quite happy with the new system.

 

[DRDISNEYMD]

Then why did MK parking lot close earlier this week? Is that norm for this time of year? And does Josh have current attendance data for this week and last several weeks as I understand such information is not released by WDW until each financial quarter or year end.

So how does anyone real know if WDW has a spike in attendance?

Truth is no one really knows and the impact of FP+ and crowds will not be clear for months, perhaps full year after complete roll out

~Thank you, redsbe! Very, very, very well said! I could not have said it better!

True, we won't know the actual numbers until Disney releases them, or at the end of the year. But nothing other than high double-digit growth in attendance could account for the numbers people are claiming here.

For example, let's say the average second tier ride had a wait of 30 minutes. People are reporting that those rides are now 45-60 minutes. To do that, IF EVERYTHING ELSE WAS EQUAL, would require a 50% and 100% spike in attendance, respectively.

It's not just Josh's numbers - attendance has NEVER spiked that high. Collectively, the biggest spike WDW has seen in year was from 2011-2012, when WDW attendance went up 4%.

A 4% increase in a 30 minute wait would be 72 seconds. A 4% increase in a 60 minute wait would be an extra two and a half minutes.

Average yearly attendance at WDW has been hovering around 120 million a year for many years now. Unless that number suddenly shoots up to 200 million or more in 2014, then the perceived increases in attendance are just that - perceived.

~Zorro.... I like to agree with you but I have to disagree here. I think the figures will reflect a notable spike in attendance due in part to The New Fantasyland! Even with the mine train drawing near completion crowds are still flocking. I have reason to believe that people have already planned 2014 trips in hopes of catching the mine train and seeing the New Fantasyland in its entirety!

~I don't expect The New Fantasyland to do what Carsland did for DCA but I do think it's helping to draw in those crowds. So, we'll see!

~Also, your figures for MK are way off! MK had roughly 17.5 million visitors last year. Collectively, Disney Parks had roughly 126,500,000 million visitors.

I got a cup of coffee on my way to work today. I normally don't. I then got stuck in a traffic jam. What has changed in my morning routine? The coffee. So, the coffee must have caused the traffic jam.

Correlation does not imply causation.


I highlighted a bit from your post there. "Long lines of unhappy guests"... that's the overwhelming theme in this forum. FP+ is a mess, and everyone is waiting in longer lines, and everyone is unhappy about it.

Again, that just can't be the case. If you're riding fewer rides than you used to, then someone else is riding MORE. If you're unhappy, then someone else is happy.

~LOL. I love the coffee analogy!

 

[shelemm]

FP+ is obviously a great loss for anyone who was familiar with and wiling to use the old FP system. Even if you were a newbie before (as we all were at one point), you could still use the system to to great advantage. Other people simply did not know or care.

For the people who don't care, there will be little change.

For the people who didn't know, there could be an advantage, but many of those will waste FPs on rides for which they are not needed.

In terms of how this will all play out eventually, it all depends on how complicated this gets. A more complicated system can indeed make things go slower. Just like in ergonomics 8 can be less than 4 + 4, a system that can have more people getting FPs who did not care about them or for rides where they were not needed can indeed slow things down. This is a mechanical/human interaction, nor pure math.

As far as the parks are concerned, it will probably not overall change the wait times for FP- attractions, but could screw up wait times at other attractions. If everyone was content before with waiting 10 minutes for an 11 minute ride, it could be more unpleasant that wait times double for some people while others have no wait.

Obviously this has not all played out, but it is a huge drag for people like me who always took advantage of FP.

 

[redsbe]

And yet we are seeing plenty posts from recent WDW visitors, including from this week that had not issues with crowds or FP+ because they know how to manage busy park days. The crowd pictures are also not very helpful as I certainly have run to large crowds of people blocking FP entrances in years past as they wait for their FP window or confused about FP to start with.

It is also clear this week the parks are busier as evidenced by closures and the parking lots, and lines and delays with confusion using MBs and FP+. I have no doubt that FP+ is causing issues and lines, but until I see actual data on visitors I am not going to discount how busy it is simply because more people are there.

Even a 4% increase this week due to spring break can bring a few thousand more people into the MK and since daily ride capacity is fixed, even that number of people is going to impact even non FP+ rides. Again I understand FP+ is helping drive the delays and lines, but the better test will be weeks or months of data including low to average crowds and those impacts, not spring break which is not representative of 90% of park days in a year. Only then will the impacts be better accounted for including my the various park planning and crowd predictor sites.

 

[DPCummerbund]

I like to agree with you but I have to disagree here. I think the figures will reflect a notable spike in attendance due in part to The New Fantasyland! Even with the mine train drawing near completion crowds are still flocking. I have reason to believe that people have already planned 2014 trips in hopes of catching the mine train and seeing the New Fantasyland in its entirety!

~Also, your figures for MK are way off! MK had roughly 17.5 million visitors last year. Collectively, Disney Parks had roughly 126,500,000 million visitors.

You may be right in that attendance may indeed by higher right now - a confluence of spring breaks, or the New Fantasyland may indeed by drawing in more people. Photos of huge crowds, closing off the parking lots, etc. would all be signs that more people are at the parks. An increase in attendance would indeed drive up the wait times for the rides. However, many people are blaming FP+ instead, and those two things just aren't connected.

As to the numbers - I said those numbers were for WDW, but that was incorrect - the 120 million is for Disney parks as a whole, not just WDW (in my defense, I didn't say it was MK though). Some people are saying "The waits were nonexistent to 30 minutes a year ago, and they're 60 minutes now, so the lines at every attraction in every WDW park have doubled", and I find that hard to believe. When looking at the attendance of the top parks around the world for the past 5 years (Wikipedia), the largest single year jump on the record was at California Adventure from 2011-2012; attendance jumped 22.6% when Carsland launched.

Yes, attendance will fluctuate, and certain days (i.e. spring break) will always be higher than others, but the WDW parks have always experienced single-digit growth at best. There's no way that FP+ somehow magically doubled the crowds forever.

 

[redsbe]

And there are also plenty of good reasons to suggest WDW is busy this week when compared to same week in 2013, including when various school and college spring breaks fall (different place to place and even year to year), terrible long winter in midwest and NE USA, and evidence of stronger economy. So it really hard to only focus on FP+ as the only differences in lines and crowds between March 26 2013 to March 26 2014.

 

[ktlm]

In my opinion:

1. The FP+ lines are longer because a. you have gone from a system where a CM takes a quick glance at a piece of paper as people continue walking and usually only looks briefly at one of the paper FPs for a family instead of scrutinizing everyone's FP (or where in our instance, I would hold all 3 FPs in kind of a fan shape for my family and the CM would take a quick glance as we were moving through), to a System where each and every person must completely stop, put their arm up to a sensor, make sure they are lined up properly, and watch the sensor spin until it turns green. If this adds 5 seconds per person, which in my experience I would say it does, then this means a minute wait is added for every 12 people that go through the line. If it adds 10 seconds per person, then for every 6 people that go through the line another minute wait is added and b. its is my understanding that they are issuing far more FP+ per day than the FP- they allowed to be issued per day which means more people in the FP+ line.

2. The standby lines are longer because a. most of non FP queues were not initially set up for 2 lines, which creates more of a bottle neck when you are trying to funnel 2 lines through and the stopping; b. again on the old FP rides they are issuing far more FP+ per day then they were issuing FP- which puts more people in the FP+ line and as for standby they also issue more FP+ than the would have on a FP- ride which puts more people in the FP+ line, which means that the standby line gets stopped more often to let FP+ people in, which backs up the standby line.

 

[over50visits]

~LOL. I love the coffee analogy!

A very poor one, though, not relevant to the discussion. One instance of an unrelated occurrence is not appropriate to explain a systemic change.

 

[mcd2745]

I've been wondering the exact same thing as the OP. IMO, something's amiss. I appreciate some of the ideas tossed out here in this thread, but to me at least, it still doesn't make complete sense. We call agree there hasn't been a ridiculously dramatic increase in attendence. Therefore, if the lines are really long now where they weren't in the past at attractions like POTC & HM, somewhere else in the park has to have less people than that spot normally had in the past. Is it at the headliners? Is it just in the walkways, have they seemed a little clearer? Are the shops and restaurants all empty? Whatever the cause, FP+ or something else, all these poeple waiting in these "new" longer lines for the second-tier attractions were traditionally "somewhere else" in the past. That's just the laws of physics.

 

[jade1]

FP+ is obviously a great loss for anyone who was familiar with and wiling to use the old FP system. Even if you were a newbie before (as we all were at one point), you could still use the system to to great advantage. Other people simply did not know or care.

For the people who don't care, there will be little change.

For the people who didn't know, there could be an advantage, but many of those will waste FPs on rides for which they are not needed.

Obviously this has not all played out, but it is a huge drag for people like me who always took advantage of FP.

Seems like a group is always left off.

I think most of WDW guests want the advantages of arriving at rope drop with regards to the finite number of FP's, esp peak weeks

50,000 guests arriving at DHS for rope drop or even in the am is not possible for many reasons, not enough buses, folks flying in that day, folks checking out that day, resort transfers, taking a business call, coming from another park, fishing, golfing, jogging, working out at Ship Shape or Sturdy Branches, swimming, just hating RD madness, sleeping, relaxing, disabilities, slow guests in the party, closing a park at 3AM, got over flu/food poisoning, a baby that finally went to sleep, west coast guests on 3 hour earlier clocks, hangovers, shopping, dining at a char brunch etc.

My point is, many of us "care", we just lived with it-sometimes our choosing, sometimes not.

We just weren't:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVWHa5cpMZo

 

[DebbieB]

In my opinion:

1. The FP+ lines are longer because a. you have gone from a system where a CM takes a quick glance at a piece of paper as people continue walking and usually only looks briefly at one of the paper FPs for a family instead of scrutinizing everyone's FP (or where in our instance, I would hold all 3 FPs in kind of a fan shape for my family and the CM would take a quick glance as we were moving through), to a System where each and every person must completely stop, put their arm up to a sensor, make sure they are lined up properly, and watch the sensor spin until it turns green. If this adds 5 seconds per person, which in my experience I would say it does, then this means a minute wait is added for every 12 people that go through the line. If it adds 10 seconds per person, then for every 6 people that go through the line another minute wait is added and b. its is my understanding that they are issuing far more FP+ per day than the FP- they allowed to be issued per day which means more people in the FP+ line.

2. The standby lines are longer because a. most of non FP queues were not initially set up for 2 lines, which creates more of a bottle neck when you are trying to funnel 2 lines through and the stopping; b. again on the old FP rides they are issuing far more FP+ per day then they were issuing FP- which puts more people in the FP+ line and as for standby they also issue more FP+ than the would have on a FP- ride which puts more people in the FP+ line, which means that the standby line gets stopped more often to let FP+ people in, which backs up the standby line.

I can see there is a delay getting through the fastpass checkpoint but that time should be made up getting to the ride platform. I don't think any fastpass allowed you to go from the checkpoint right to the ride car without stopping. There's still going to be a line getting into the cars. So unless the ride loading is slower, I don't see where the delay at the checkpoint makes a difference. Just like the old "keep up with the person in front of you" really doesn't make the line move faster. The same number of people will be loaded at one time.