drogerstn said:
Not quite so simple as this. How much time is spent per person on the road compared to per person in flight? Maybe how many miles covered one way vs. the other...
Interesting thoughts!
OK, let's take it a step further. From recently doing my taxes I know that I drive about 20,000 miles a year. In a slow year, I fly about 2,000 miles (to MCO and back!). I know I may not be typical, but for argument's sake let's say I am. Let's do the math (using my hypothetical numbers from above) -- put your seat belt on for this one, it's a bumpy ride ....
300 million Americans X 20,000 miles driven = 6 TRILLION miles driven in America. 50,000 traffic deaths divided by 6 trillion miles equals 1 highway death per 120 million miles driven.
300 million Americans X 2,000 miles flown = 600 BILLION miles flown. If there was one death per 120 million miles flown (remember, we just established there is one death for every 120 million miles
driven), and 120 million goes into 600 billion 3,000 times, then that means if driving and flying were equal in terms of safety (safety meaning making it from beginning to end without dying), then 3,000 people would die each year in airline crashes. And since we all know that 3,000 people don't die in airline crashes in the USA each year, not even in the most nightmarish year imaginable, we can conclude that, on a per mile basis, flying is safer than driving.
drogerstn said:
I imagine only a few people die each year from jumping/falling off of the roofs of buildings; does this mean it is safer to jump off of a tall building than it is to drive to the nearby grocery store...
Flying and driving are both means of getting from Point A to Point B, and thus are comparable. Jumping/falling off a roof and driving are NOT comparable activities, and thus I respectfully reject your premise on that one.
So what does all this mean? Apparently, it means I have way too much time on my hands.
Please, PLEASE, don't let your otherwise normal children get master's degrees in statistics. THIS could happen to them.
