Where is the DVC market going?

[DISNEY FIX]

Where is the DVC market going?
Would you put off a purchase for a year in hopes BCV coming down?
Will BCV come down to $90-85-80 a point?
Is buying at $98 a point crazy?
Has it ever been significantly lower?
I don't have any historical perspective to rely on, what do you guys think & what has your stratedgy been?

 

[disney dumbo]

I'm no expert... we just bought in last year. But here's my 2 cents:

If you want in... do not wait!

Actually the initial buy in is a tiny percent of the value. If you were to buy points on the rental board you would be paying $12/point. I don't think the price of buying in will come down $12 in a year.

You might find a pocket of opportunity on the resale market... maybe something loaded with points.

I believe that this concept is still a "secret" as Disney likes to market it. I wish I had bought in 15 years ago!!!

 

[JimMIA]

Historically, DVC prices have risen. That doesn't make DVC an investment, but I don't think there has been a period where the prices went down because Disney maintains the price levels with ROFR.

I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.

 

[Delaware Mike]

Historically, DVC prices have risen. That doesn't make DVC an investment, but I don't think there has been a period where the prices went down because Disney maintains the price levels with ROFR.

I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.

Agreed, Jim.

I believe the point values would only begin to slowly drop as we approach resort "end-of-life". Once we cross some undetermined timeline, and DVC no longer supports point valuation via ROFR for a particular resort, the price per point will begin to decline.

Just my two cents (and due to inflation, it ain't even worth that... )

 

[JudyTL]

I plan to keep my OKW until I trade up for another DVC place. Really, if you get a good deal on the resale market, you can sell and buy newer ones. In 10 years your ideal home might change for you. I see Disney offering many types of vacation types homes in the future. I think we are a society that does want to vacation but might not want to worry about the upkeep of a summer home. It is aggravation. Here we get to vacation in style and go home without responsibilty back to the vacation home.

 

[JimMIA]

I went back and checked the ROFR thread, and I did see one fairly recent BCV sale at $90 which passed ROFR. Most of the other BCV sales are in the $93-98 range, though.

BCV is very difficult to get a good handle on because it's a small resort and there are very few contracts sold there, so there's not much ROFR history to look at.

If you decide to buy resale, remember that the most important price is NOT the lowest price you can get, but the price which will clear ROFR. If you don't clear ROFR, nothing else matters.

 

[dwelty]

If you decide to buy resale, remember that the most important price is NOT the lowest price you can get, but the price which will clear ROFR. If you don't clear ROFR, nothing else matters.

Very true.

 

[mikeandkarla]

I am currently in the ROFR stage with my resale. I consistently see posts where people say they wish they would have bought sooner. I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited. I think I've seen someone having bought in for like $60 point when DVC first started. You can sell OKW today for $75 - $80 point. Not a bad investment considering you have taken vacations every year and could sell remainder for more than your initial investment. I agre that the closer 2042 comes, the less you're going to be able to sell for. One option is selling your "older" contract for one that expires at a later date.

 

[JimMIA]

I think I've seen someone having bought in for like $60 point when DVC first started.

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

 

[bwvBound]

I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited.

While not quite the same as saying, "I wish I had waited!" expressed after purchasing too early -- there are folks here who endured a wait of months or years prior to purchase and reported they were glad they did. The best anyone can do is purchase when the timing is right for them.

 

[abner1776]

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited.

I'm glad I waited. That's sort of the same as "I wish I waited."

Why? Because I purchased VWL. Nothing against OKW or BWV, but I looked at those resorts and they just didn't interest me. If I hadn't of waited, I would not own at my beloved VWL!

MG

 

[mikesmom]

Yes, I think it will come down, but as a previous poster said, as we get to the end of life on the contract. So, all you have to do is be patient and wait... 15 years?... 20 years?.. maybe 22 years is the magic number? You really want to wait that long? And as it comes down it will be lower than DVC is selling for then. Which could be $150? or more?

Let's face it. It's not coming down any time soon or even close to soon. If you decide that DVC is right for you (and that's the big "if") the only way to save money is to buy now before it gets any higher.

 

[LisaS]

I've been hanging around the DVC boards for less than 2 years (about 21 months). During that time, Disney has raised the price of BCV, BWV and VWL 3 times! The resale prices and ROFR price level for BCV in particular have also risen shortly thereafter. Disney just raised the price of BCV (for new buyers) from $95 to $101! That's a $6/point increase! BWV and VWL went up the usual $3 (from $95 to $98). Given that, I don't see resale prices for BCV falling in the next year.

 

[Budshark]

Where is DVC going is a big question (one we ask ourselves a LOT since we are in talks to buy-in AKV).

I think it is growing exponentially and that the existing resorts will not depreciate that much if at all. Why? Because DVC will continue to grow - probably branching out into an upscale Contemporary Villa (with costs to match) and another SSR style when the time is right. To keep people buying in and growing, they have to keep ROFR. When "time" (10-15 years left) becomes a factor on the older resorts - they'll release what their intention is. And they won't turn their back on the 50-60,000 ppl who helped build the program. So I won't be surprised to see a time 10-15 years from now when the older resorts actually become desireable because of the deal DVC puts on the table for those owners to "buy-in" again when their current contracts expire in 2042...

Just my 2 cents...

Chris

 

[JimMIA]

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.

Excellent advice.

 

[DISNEY FIX]

Agreed, Jim.

I believe the point values would only begin to slowly drop as we approach resort "end-of-life". Once we cross some undetermined timeline, and DVC no longer supports point valuation via ROFR for a particular resort, the price per point will begin to decline.

Just my two cents (and due to inflation, it ain't even worth that... )

I figure as it approaches the "end-of-life" is when you would be reaping one of the rewards of why people join. Nobody would be able to get a stay at Disney any cheaper than what you aren't paying. Especially in 2030 dollars.

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.

Correct, but if possible, without nixing a good deal, saving a few bucks isn't a bad thing.

 

[disney dumbo]

As far as where the price going...
did some checking...
rack rate off season at Beach Club 1nt= roughly $355 studio or room

Say you pay $98/pt and only have 4 years left on contract = $24.50/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $29.50

Cost (in today's money) 12 points for studio = $354

If room rates escalate like I'm imagining they will (and I'm sure MF will go up too)... it still makes me think that even with just 4 years left on contract...
when selling your DVC contract you would probably get your $98 back and that's 30 years from now.

Of course...
all a guess.

But sure is fun to think about!

 

[JudyTL]

I agree with chris.

 

[MrErk]

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

Pre-sale at OKW was $48.