Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

Who has worked in rofr has ever given an explanation of why they are buying something back? I may have missed that.

They have been telling people they have no contracts to sell them for resorts like SSR and OKW.

 

[poofyo101]

They have been telling people they have no contracts to sell them for resorts like SSR and OKW.

They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.

personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.

 

[CastAStone]

They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.

personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.

Ok.

 

[sethschroeder]

They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.

personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.

They need to make profit. VGC is not selling for a low enough amount for them to want to buy back those contract or they know Disneyland Hotel Villas is coming and they are simply wanting to keep that waitlist around to push them in to the new resort at a larger profit.

As far as the other resorts its not a random act that the ROFR taken are primarily at resorts sold the most in the past. People have also been told that Disney would get more points soon to sell them direct.

In the end Disney is 100% buying contracts to later sell be it immediate or in the future. There is a small assumption that under current circumstances with less than normal cash flow they would focus on a more immediate sale. There is some correlation drawn from the economic collapse from a decade ago and reduction/elimination of ROFR during parts of that.

There is also another assumption on a more immediate turn over in that all resorts are being offered during the direct sales process as opposed to the overwhelming new resort only sales they would have in the past. Things like resort touring, online marketing (with prices for each resort), and even calls with agents will spell out today is much different from 6 months ago prior to shutdown.

Plus in the end there really hasn't been much for ROFR anyways besides that one specific day almost 2 weeks ago.

I just think its no coincidence we hear about wait lists on I think it was OKW and by the end of that week there is a day of ROFR being taken. Lines up with the idea of being ready for the surge in purchasing for the 100 to 125 point increase. Also its not like Disney is overpaying they are simply grabbing a limited supply in my opinion for the expected upcoming direct sales.

Some assumptions are required with anything though.

 

[Dean]

Historically they’ve use that more to establish a floor but ultimately to drive people to buy retail. There have been times when they’ve also used it to sell some additional points but this has not been the main issue.

 

[RoseGold]

They ROFRed so hard in 2019. When I was buying in late 2019, it was constant. And now it seems like they have no inventory to sell.

Maybe they really do have a line around the block of people who want to buy this stuff direct???

Once they staff up the booths and fire up the ice cream machine, I would expect more ROFR with Reflections on hold. They need something to sell! Less rush to sell out RIV, which, let's be honest, was always going to take a long time.

 

[chunks]

Shocks me that people still believe Disney would buy back just to “establish a floor” or “prove a point that they are still here”. Disney is a public company...everything they do is to make money...and they would be idiots to buyback during a pandemic if they didn’t have a super quick sell down the road.

I will say that if it is true that they can’t get foreclosures at the moment, they probably should’ve waited on the “buybacks” until they could foreclose. They may have a glut of inventory coming once foreclosures start back up and could probably use those waitlist people to clear that out. Then again, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush

 

[Kickstart]

I got a call from Disney DVC today, because I "recently" downloaded their DVC DVD/video (which must have been about two months ago).
Real nice guy, pleasant conversation, but here's the interesting part:

I mentioned that I'm waiting on a contract in ROFR - He then led with "great prices on OKW and SSR to get your blue card points before the membership points increase"

A very brief mention of RIV before coming back to OKW and SSR again. Didn't even try pitching RIV to me.
I explained how I'd really like to be at BLT, but couldn't justify direct... but may consider adding on direct with the membership discount if my contract comes through.

I said the only current direct property I might consider is CCV.
So... the follow-up email had prices for CVV, and get this... prices for OKW even though I never expressed interest in OKW.

Obviously, if I didn't mention I had a contract in ROFR he might have lead with RIV. So OKW and SSR may be the backup pitch for white card members. Maybe that's typical for DVC sales to push the cheapest sold-out resorts to white card members, IDK... but I thought it was interesting he was suggesting those two resorts considering they're the primary ones Disney has recently bought back.

 

[RoseGold]

I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call. Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.

I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.

 

[Kickstart]

I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call. Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.

I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.

Funny, I asked about actual benefits and he didn't have much to say except for store discounts... but... then he did tell me that I wouldn't be able to access the BLT Observation Deck / Lounge as a white card member. I said I thought that was available to white card members but he was sure it wasn't... now I'll have to research that... or maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?

Oh, BTW... he didn't use the phrase "blue card" or "white card". He led with "you wont be a member..." and something along the lines of "you wont be a member, you'll just have a stay" so, yeah, I don't think they have much to differentiate blue card benefits besides making you feel like you're not a "real" member.

 

[sethschroeder]

maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?

Its paid out of MFs so its available to all.

Nothing about APs though? Worrying that they would not bring that up even if its not available right now.

 

[Kickstart]

Its paid out of MFs so its available to all.

Nothing about APs though? Worrying that they would not bring that up even if its not available right now.

Oh, so I made the mistake of talking too much Before he got the chance I mentioned that even if AP discounts came back that they don't mean much to me as I'm only planning on going once every 2-3 years. So he just moved on to the other benefits.

Sorry, I should have inquired or see what he led with. My bad.

 

[Dean]

Shocks me that people still believe Disney would buy back just to “establish a floor” or “prove a point that they are still here”. Disney is a public company...everything they do is to make money...and they would be idiots to buyback during a pandemic if they didn’t have a super quick sell down the road.

I will say that if it is true that they can’t get foreclosures at the moment, they probably should’ve waited on the “buybacks” until they could foreclose. They may have a glut of inventory coming once foreclosures start back up and could probably use those waitlist people to clear that out. Then again, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush

Let me be more clear. They use it mainly to drive people to retail and make them nervous about resale. To do so they create uncertainty about RORF and this necessitates some semblance of a floor. They also have their internal cutoffs for buybacks but even then they only take part of them partly for cash flow reasons but more because they want the uncertainty. They're not above making a few extra bucks here and there but their main business and source of profit is new sales. At a buyback that is 50% of the retail price, they're basically breaking even because of marketing and commission costs when looked at long term.

 

[Spark65]

Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.

 

[Dean]

Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.

It did in 08-10, they went down by half what they were selling for before that.

 

[chunks]

Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.

They don’t buy back at aulani, poly, copper creek or boulder ridge...and none of them have their resale values collapse. They may be lower than certain others, but there are reasons for that (poly’s point chart is high, aulani is in Hawaii etc) The reason that the values hold is demand for the product...Particularly the rental demand. If rental demand died, resale prices would get crushed (ie go to zero). As long as there is a spread between dues and rental prices (particularly through rental brokers as that is easy) the timeshare will have value regardless of what Disney does (even riv resale has value due to the rental market although I’m a little skeptical of that holding as there could be issues in the future rental market if you don’t rent the points out immediately...due to everyone trading in but you not being able to trade out)

There are many other timeshare companies with rofr (Wyndham), that have values of essentially $0. All about the rental markets as a lot of people in Wyndham can’t rent for more than their dues...thus causing the value to disappear

 

[bookwormde]

8/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

As s side note the greatest portion of the recent reduction in new contracts has been from a reduction in new listings from DVC resales

 

[Dean]

They don’t buy back at aulani, poly, copper creek or boulder ridge...and none of them have their resale values collapse. They may be lower than certain others, but there are reasons for that (poly’s point chart is high, aulani is in Hawaii etc) The reason that the values hold is demand for the product...Particularly the rental demand. If rental demand died, resale prices would get crushed (ie go to zero). As long as there is a spread between dues and rental prices (particularly through rental brokers as that is easy) the timeshare will have value regardless of what Disney does (even riv resale has value due to the rental market although I’m a little skeptical of that holding as there could be issues in the future rental market if you don’t rent the points out immediately...due to everyone trading in but you not being able to trade out)

There are many other timeshare companies with rofr (Wyndham), that have values of essentially $0. All about the rental markets as a lot of people in Wyndham can’t rent for more than their dues...thus causing the value to disappear

There are reasons that Bluegreen, Wyndham, etc who have ROFR had every low prices. Marriott does also and it does affect the prices there even though the % are lower. Yes there are other factors but the fact that they have it and use it at some resorts (and all to some degree over time) props them all up.

 

[CastAStone]

8/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

As s side note the greatest portion of the recent reduction in new contracts has been from a reduction in new listings from DVC resales

The number of contracts on https://www.dvcsales.com/ seems to be the highest I've seen in the time I've been actively looking for a contract. Are they in the sites you track?

 

[Sandisw]

I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call. Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.

I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.

Not to mention with them keeping deluxe resorts closed, I personally don’t think they are in any rush with RIV because it gives them a deluxe to discount and/or move people.

Plus, Reflections no longer in the mix, I can see why a guide might not push with someone who said they have bought resale already.