Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

If you think those are high taxes you should see what that assessment would cost in New York State.

My property tax in Ohio is only slightly less than that and the county thinks my home is worth half of that. And who am I to tell them they’re wrong?

 

[lovethesun12]

Any thoughts on the # of overall contracts available now vs February or March? Seems like these 300% days can’t continue into perpetuity unless there are 300% the buyers

I started watching inventory for a few sites in May. It was already dropping for awhile at that point, and continued to drop into June. It's been increasing pretty steadily since mid June.

It's still weird though. A contract less than 150pt is not going to stick around long at market value. A contract with more than 150pt will stick around, even if it's fairly priced.

 

[CastAStone]

It's still weird though. A contract less than 150pt is not going to stick around long at market value. A contract with more than 150pt will stick around, even if it's fairly priced.

I think what we're seeing is existing DVC owners are happy to add on but with the parks closed (or now limited in capacity and mostly attracting locals), first time buyers are fewer and farther between than normal, so the larger contracts are sitting.

If the larger contracts keep sitting, they will start to fall in price, and that in turn will inevitably drag down small contract prices eventually - 75 point contracts will never cost more than 100 points ones etc.

Interesting times we're in.

 

[3 DD love princesses]

i decided to look up the contract I bought on the county website. Im paying $122 but my sellers paid $115 Two years ago. So after paying MF on points they banked for me, and commission, they probably Took a small loss. Can’t know how many 2018 and banked 2017 points they got then, but I know I got 98/110 of the 2019 allotment.

How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

Any thoughts on the # of overall contracts available now vs February or March? Seems like these 300% days can’t continue into perpetuity unless there are 300% the buyers

But DVC has started up direct sales again. Based on that added inventory for sale, I could see the demand for resale contracts declining, especially with DVC incentives. Speaking of DVC sales incentives, I'd expect to see higher incentives after this round of incentives expires Sep 16.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

I think what we're seeing is existing DVC owners are happy to add on but with the parks closed (or now limited in capacity and mostly attracting locals), first time buyers are fewer and farther between than normal, so the larger contracts are sitting.

If the larger contracts keep sitting, they will start to fall in price, and that in turn will inevitably drag down small contract prices eventually - 75 point contracts will never cost more than 100 points ones etc.

Interesting times we're in.

While both of my contracts got offers fairly quickly, my 400 pt contract took longer, had to be listed at a lower price, and sold for $2/pt less.
The 400 pt contract had 81% of its 2021 points (324) vs the 100 pt contract having 50% of its 2021 pts.

I was definitely not aware that larger contracts sold for less when I bought the 400 pt contract. ... I paid more for the 400 pt contract than I did for the 100 pt contract.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.

Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website. I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.

 

[CastAStone]

Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website. I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.

You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.

 

[Lorana]

How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.

Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website. I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.

You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.

If you do a search on the Orange County Comptroller's website, you can get the Deed Document Tax. It is $.07 per $100, so if you take that number and divide by .007, you get the selling price. I believe it includes closing, but it gives you pretty close to the per point cost if you then divide that by the number of points (if you click on the image of the deed, it often lists the total points in the deed document).

 

[iflyjetzzz]

You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.

LOL! I should have known you'd have a much better answer. For those that want to search, here's a link: http://or.occompt.com/recorder/web/

 

[bookwormde]

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

I have added June from the reseller and have updated DIS ROFR for June through 7/15

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .......................6/1 ……..…………7/1 …..8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137]{147} 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly

 

[Deeleebaker]

How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.

You get their names when you sign the contract. It’s too late for negotiating purposes, but it made me feel pretty good about the purchase and not trying to get them lower.

 

[CastAStone]

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

I have added June from the reseller and have updated DIS ROFR for June through 7/15

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .......................6/1 ……..…………7/1 …..8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137]{147} 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly

Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed.

Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?
And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.

That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...

 

[Royal Consort]

Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed.

Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?
And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.

That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...

I have been following VGF for a while: it seems the competitively priced (current market price) contracts have been snapped up leaving the higher priced contracts remaining. They are just sitting there.

 

[bookwormde]

Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed.

Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?
And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.

That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...

A lot of the new listings, particularity from the largest reseller, have been well above the market. some of the recent movements have been more about the characteristics of the listings, though when the available AKV listings became limited there was definitely an across the board increase, though that imbalance is lessening.

Most of what I am seeing now is mostly statistical "noise" with now strong current trends

 

[BennyBoyWrench]

I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.

 

[JoshF]

I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.

At 200 points the current incentive offers a $25 per point discount for new members and a $35 discount for existing members. This would put Copper Creek ($220 direct) at $195 new member and $185 pp for an existing member. Riviera ($195 direct) at $170 new member and $160 pp for an existing member. At $160 per point that's not terrible compared to resale prices on top resorts. If only there weren't the resale restrictions on Riviera, this would be an easy decision for me. If I was buying direct I would need to weigh the resale restrictions coupled with an extra $25 savings per point compared to Copper Creek.

 

[Kickstart]

I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.

At 200 points the current incentive offers a $25 per point discount for new members and a $35 discount for existing members. This would put Copper Creek ($220 direct) at $195 new member and $185 pp for an existing member. Riviera ($195 direct) at $170 new member and $160 pp for an existing member. At $160 per point that's not terrible compared to resale prices on top resorts. If only there weren't the resale restrictions on Riviera, this would be an easy decision for me. If I was buying direct I would need to weigh the resale restrictions coupled with an extra $25 savings per point compared to Copper Creek.

As a prospective new buyer who's looking for around 200 points (with CCV as a very close second to BLT as my first choice) it is very hard to justify buying direct, even as someone who would like to be "officially" DVC with "future proof" points. $195 per point direct vs. approx $140 resale is an $11k difference.

Now, maybe if you're planning on going every year and planning trips in sets of two, with each set 11 months apart, maybe you're making that 11K back in 7 years with annual pass savings... IDK, just a wild guess. For us, we'd be thinking about going once every two years so there's no making that 11k back.

 

[sethschroeder]

maybe you're making that 11K back in 7 years with annual pass savings...

I had signed a contract and backed out because of this. Right now they are not even selling APs to DVC. It just really had me worried because throwing away $10k is not something that I would want to do.

 

[CastAStone]

I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.

The incentives start at 150 points for new members.