Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

7/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260-270% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Aussie RJ]

By far the worst bus service on property is Contemporary/ Wilderness (often shared) to HWS and Boardwalk to MK (when shared with Swan). Both of these can be full, lacking in buses, and long journeys.

I would have nominated Boardwalk to Magic Kingdom as one of the worst I’ve experienced. But come to think of it the CCV to BLT to Hollywood is dam awful.

 

[Matty B13]

PVB has the advantage of walking to Ticket centre to get Epcot monorail, I think you could even walk there from VGF but someone may correct me on that.

Have stayed at PVB & VGF, and yes you can walk from VGF to PVB then to the Transportation Center which I have found is much quicker than the monorail even with a double stroller. The big problem with VGF is the morning rush to get to MK on the monorail, I have found that my family wasted a lot of time trying to get on the monorail in the morning to only find no room for us because everyone gets on at the Transportation Center and PVB. We then end up heading to the boat launch to get over to MK, after wasting 15-20 minutes with the monorail. I've also got stuck in a nightmare trying to return from MK to VGF after fireworks and the monorails shut down with the CM's pretty much doing nothing to alleviate the problem or give any direction (this was probably the worst experience we have had at Disney).

The monorail is fine during off peak times, but I can't wait for the walkway from VGF to MK.

 

[T-i-double-guh-er]

Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot.

Someone here did that a couple of years ago. They found this:

Guess which resorts take the longest on an average? The 3 Monorail Resorts! Monorail is one of the slowest ways to get around to parks.

Guess which resort has the shortest average travel time? OKW! (Except that you need to add time for additional stops within the resort, and if you add the additional bus stops at OKW, Beach Club and Boardwalk, then ANIMAL KINGDOM VILLAS might actually be the shortest average travel time of all resorts!! With Wilderness Lodge a close second!)

Here's the link: https://www.disboards.com/threads/list-of-travel-times-from-resorts-to-parks.3707781/

 

[Deeleebaker]

The issue with AKL was never how long the bus ride is. It’s that you often wait an hour or more for a bus to come. I will definitely use Uber when I stay there.

 

[sethschroeder]

Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot.
Does anyone else feel like those average resale prices are inflated? $140's for BLT right now? $117 for BWV? I'm sure buyers could do better.

BWV is the best location in WDW for going to parks and it is only getting better with a huge investment in HS and now a HUGE investment Epcot. BWV has similar walk to Epcot as BCV but is the shortest walk to HS as well.

Only 3 resorts (2 DVC) can physically walk to 2 parks.

Riviera comes in behind BLT, VGF, and Poly simply because those resorts are so close and all will be walk able to MK in the next year or two. it is right behind it though and if you are not a MK fan I could see it (but lets be honest who is not a fan of MK haha).

 

[sethschroeder]

The issue with AKL was never how long the bus ride is. It’s that you often wait an hour or more for a bus to come. I will definitely use Uber when I stay there.

100%

I can forgive a 20 min bus to MK if the busses for MK are always waiting when I get there but if I have the bus get delayed on the board 3 times, disappear, reappear, and then get delayed for a 50 min wait at MK rope drop then yes going to be a little frustrated. That is the major advantage of Riviera over a place like OKW. OKW in theory is close to Epcot and MK but Walking>Boats/Skyliner>Busses

 

[bookwormde]

7/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340-360% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[sethschroeder]

Wow really going up.

Do we have a total tally since February? What I mean is total number of contracts listed?

I ask because do we have more contracts now listed than expected for 2020? Or possibly is the total number of contracts really the same now since there was such a dip for so long.

 

[CLE2WDW]

7/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340-360% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Why such a spike? Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.

 

[Brian Noble]

Why such a spike? Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.

It's hard to say. First, it might not even be a spike. The comparison really should be year-over-year, and this is a comparison to a different time of year---timeshare sales have a strong seasonal component.

Second, I don't think we can ascribe it to any particular thing beyond "this is all unprecedented." My own take on it: I expect the demand for leisure travel to be different (and suppressed) for quite some time. For example: I think more people will be looking for drive-to destinations vs. air travel. Air travel is likely to be biased in favor of domestic travel not just in the US but in many other countries too. Outdoor/less crowded activities are going to be more interesting vs. crowded indoor activities. Then add in the fact that the economy is going to take a hit, and it all starts to add up.

That's certainly true for me and my family, and we are HUGE Disney fans: we've taken maybe 20 vacations that have involved DLR, WDW, DRLP, and DCL. We had a trip to TDR planned for this May that didn't happen. Now? I don't plan to set foot in a theme park or on a cruise ship anytime soon. Thankfully we have yet to feel any direct economic impacts, but even without that our plans are drastically different. We can't be the only ones.

 

[CastAStone]

Why such a spike? Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.

Here is my best guess:

• There has been a lull in new listings for a few months as Disney was closed. Demand remained fairly normal. I think people interested in selling delayed listing because they either wanted to know whether they would be able to take their 1 last trip, or just wanted clarity from Disney before they sold
• That lull has led to pent up supply coming on the market right now
• In addition, we are at the onset of a recession. Permanent job losses continue to grow. When people are strapped for cash they look to see what they can sell to raise money and a prepaid vacation plan that they can resell for many thousands of dollars for covers a lot of mortgage payments.

I think reasons 1+2 are why we are seeing a bump now, and reason 3 is more of a trickle that will become a flood in several months.

P.S. don't forget that Aulani, the 2nd largest DVC, still doesn't have an opening date.

 

[bookwormde]

Why such a spike? Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.

While past downturns has been primarily due to financial stresses, this time it appears to in addition to that in some limited measure, that the ability to use points as anticipated and future uncertainties may be the primary reasons.

It has been interesting that with a 5 to 15% drop in resale prices, that this has been adequate to spur demand to the point that is is in large measure offsetting the higher number of contracts on the market.

one other thing that is also different this time is the the rental market is somewhat disrupted, so those that were holding more points than they typically use and were renting them as an option to selling.

 

[CLE2WDW]

Here is my best guess:

• There has been a lull in new listings for a few months as Disney was closed. Demand remained fairly normal. I think people interested in selling delayed listing because they either wanted to know whether they would be able to take their 1 last trip, or just wanted clarity from Disney before they sold
• That lull has led to pent up supply coming on the market right now
• In addition, we are at the onset of a recession. Permanent job losses continue to grow. When people are strapped for cash they look to see what they can sell to raise money and a prepaid vacation plan that they can resell for many thousands of dollars for covers a lot of mortgage payments.

I think reasons 1+2 are why we are seeing a bump now, and reason 3 is more of a trickle that will become a flood in several months.

P.S. don't forget that Aulani, the 2nd largest DVC, still doesn't have an opening date.

Wow that’s really great insight. It’s one thing to report the numbers but it’s a whole different animal to analyze and explain the numbers. I’m thoroughly impressed. Thanks for the insight.

 

[bookwormde]

7/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Have stayed at PVB & VGF, and yes you can walk from VGF to PVB then to the Transportation Center which I have found is much quicker than the monorail even with a double stroller. The big problem with VGF is the morning rush to get to MK on the monorail, I have found that my family wasted a lot of time trying to get on the monorail in the morning to only find no room for us because everyone gets on at the Transportation Center and PVB. We then end up heading to the boat launch to get over to MK, after wasting 15-20 minutes with the monorail. I've also got stuck in a nightmare trying to return from MK to VGF after fireworks and the monorails shut down with the CM's pretty much doing nothing to alleviate the problem or give any direction (this was probably the worst experience we have had at Disney).

The monorail is fine during off peak times, but I can't wait for the walkway from VGF to MK.

I really loved the boat launch that went to GF and Poly. I found that the fastest during the fireworks rush and the morning. We were right next to the TTC in the poly and still preferred that.

 

[TinkB278]

I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?

100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?

100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.

Something really strange is going on with DVC. I received a promo email today from DVC and it was slightly more desperate than previous promotional emails I received. It seemed like they were really trying to push small contracts. Something tells me that being shut down for 4 months is starting to really hit home for DVC.

 

[WestCoastDVC]

Something really strange is going on with DVC. I received a promo email today from DVC and it was slightly more desperate than previous promotional emails I received. It seemed like they were really trying to push small contracts. Something tells me that being shut down for 4 months is starting to really hit home for DVC.

can you share the text? Was it just tone that stood out to you or did they offer any special promotions?

 

[CLE2WDW]

can you share the text? Was it just tone that stood out to you or did they offer any special promotions?

It wasn’t the text of the email it was that everything was “staring at $x.” Curiously, not a single mention of point minimums to achieve member benefits (unless I missed it).