Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!

Will you share your calculator?

 

[ELMC]

I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months. I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.

I'm not so sure I agree with you, Doug. One could argue that the prices were crazy inflated already before any of this happened. I think the market was due to correct on its own. Now, with the twin crises we are facing, I would not be surprised to see a 50% reduction.

 

[DougEMG]

I'm not so sure I agree with you, Doug. One could argue that the prices were crazy inflated already before any of this happened. I think the market was due to correct on its own. Now, with the twin crises we are facing, I would not be surprised to see a 50% reduction.

So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.

Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts

 

[Sandisw]

So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.

Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts

If BLT gets that low, I will probably just buy and not worry about selling My BWV.

I can say I was told today that sales have slowed a bit but not to any degree that its of concern.

 

[ELMC]

So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.

Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts

You may very well be right. To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.

So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months. I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term. I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess. Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.

All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation. I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong. But something tells me I won't have to.

 

[zavandor]

You may very well be right. To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.

So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months. I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term. I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess. Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.

All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation. I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong. But something tells me I won't have to.

I hope you're wrong, but I think you're right.

 

[ELMC]

I hope you're wrong, but I think you're right.

Me too. And me too.

 

[Brianstl]

You may very well be right. To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.

So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months. I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term. I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess. Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.

All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation. I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong. But something tells me I won't have to.

What leads you to think that this will have a longer term impact on growth than the combined impact of the Spanish Flu and WW1 did?

 

[poofyo101]

The listing has a "Buy Now" button with a set price that will result in immediate acceptance. Yes, the contract still goes through all the usual steps. Disney doesn't seem to be buying anything back right now, so apparently, some think there are some good deals to be had.

Disney is still buying back right now.

 

[mamaofsix]

I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months. I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.

Considering the prices have already dropped 10% in just the past week, unfortunately I think we are headed towards 50% territory. But it's anybody's guess...

 

[MICKIMINI]

Will you share your calculator?

I will if you promise not to laugh! No spreadsheets here as I work with pen and paper. I scribbled this down when we were actively buying late 2018 - closing 2019. We did not buy this contract, but we did buy two others (we sold two simultaneously) and this is our cheat sheet and we've put this into use. Note: it involves renting, which is now a shaky plan, however a transfer could be used in its place. As you see, we were able to cut our initial cost by about 26%.

BRV UY Dec 220 Points $100 PP $22,000 Cost + $1610 2019 MF + $660 Close = $$24,270
2018 Points 337 ($0-negotiated)
2019 Points 220 $1610

Rented 557 Points @ $14.50 = $8077 NET PAID $16,193 OR $73.60 PP

I hope this is helpful to you as it can be recalculated with any potential contract. Good luck!

 

[Deploraboo]

Put it this way, anyone posting sales during this lockdown might as well state “will take anything” And honestly, that would be smart. First movers win.

 

[Deploraboo]

Btw, green chutes today is a SnapBack Imho. Damage to S&P has already been done. Of course, this is an unprecedented market drop, durationwise, so analysis may be out the window, but always informative.

 

[SL6827]

I think we could see OKW and SSR at the 50% off.

 

[Drewferin]

Btw, green chutes today is a SnapBack Imho. Damage to S&P has already been done. Of course, this is an unprecedented market drop, durationwise, so analysis may be out the window, but always informative.

We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.

 

[wallawallakids]

We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.

Thank you for your and your wife’s service. This is a tough time to be in heath care. I’m thankful for people like you out there advocating and caring for the sick. Also, I agree 100% with the points you just made about unemployment numbers etc.

 

[Brianstl]

We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.

The market has already factored in a worse case unemployment number.

 

[RanDIZ]

It’s always good to dollar cost average on the way down. Either way you look at it, buying DVC at virtually any price is a win and savings over paying cash to stay deluxe. Bottom line. And as far a markets go, the Great Recession saw 50% plus drop (from Oct 2007 highs to March 2008). We’re only down around 30% now. Take Corona out of the picture and market was due to correct somewhere in 10-20% range. Now add the disaster of Corona and we probably have another 20-30% to go from here. So buckle up!

 

[TraderSamWDW]

The market has already factored in a worse case unemployment number.

Well, at least what they project to be a worst case (and hopefully its nowhere near that)
Technically, high unemployment has not been reported yet, nor have bad earnings. The market has reacted to it already however

 

[Deploraboo]

Almost feel if it’s under a million market may bounce more. But it will be a slow bleed while the Country and World remains under house arrest.