Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

5/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The first part is empirically untrue. Look through the ROFR thread or in particular the DVCResaleMarket monthly sell price blog posts.

The second part is less clear; 200+ point contracts seem to be sitting forever, as do many VGF and non-park contracts. 100 point contracts at the WDW resorts OTOH are often failing to make it a day.

I have noticed a glut of VGF contracts on that site. Yet they will not budge on the list price. Obviously brokers are the obstacle here.

 

[bseas]

Brand new to DVC, but I've worked in the travel industry and followed Disney for 15+ years. I just entered into contract for a 100 point SSR at $93/point, fully loaded with all 2019, 2020, and 2021 points. Seller had listed at $105, my original offer was $91, they countered at $95, and agreed to "meet in the middle" at $93. I'm happy with the deal that I got.

Sure, it may go lower in the next few months, but I am a cash buyer and know that I got a great value in the long term. Based upon historical data, I believe that values will return to a level in which I can sell and still come out ahead after commissions after five years, with a few great vacations in between. I made offers on several contracts before getting this one at the price I did, and the most important thing for me in the short term was to be able to close before the 11-month reservation window for my next trip. If prices continue to drop, I'm already contemplating another purchase at BLT, Poly, or AKL later in the year.

 

[CastAStone]

I have noticed a glut of VGF contracts on that site. Yet they will not budge on the list price. Obviously brokers are the obstacle here.

53 of the 59 VGF contracts on that site have been listed for at least 30 days. I've been tracking. They list their average resale price for VGF for April as $157; 53 of the 59 listed contracts are asking for more than that; 2/3rds are asking for at least $10 more than that, 18 are asking $20 more than that. Two are asking over $200.

 

[macman123]

53 of the 59 VGF contracts on that site have been listed for at least 30 days. I've been tracking. They list their average resale price for VGF for April as $157; 53 of the 59 listed contracts are asking for more than that; 2/3rds are asking for at least $10 more than that, 18 are asking $20 more than that. Two are asking over $200.

The market will dictate the price I guess. If they are happy to sit on them and wait for an offer at or near their asking price then all well and good.

If they should come into need of cash urgently then their 'deal price' will reflect that. The market will dictate the prices based on demand and sellers who may / may not be willing to negotiate......

 

[gtfpjames]

Is there some trick in being able to buy low with how much demand there seems to be right now? I’ve missed out of a few contracts I’ve been interested in because they sell so fast despite the listing price not being any lower than normal. I’m wanting an AKL contract around 120ish points and it seems like they sell within hours so I can’t imagine offering less than the asking price.

We just made a deal on a 220 point AKL @ 102/PT they were asking 108, we offered 98 and we settled 102. Based on the last 12 month averages we are happy with that. This is our first ever DVC purchase and we figured we were not going to let a few dollars/point keep us from buying if we found something we liked. Good Luck!

 

[bseas]

We just made a deal on a 220 point AKL @ 102/PT they were asking 108, we offered 98 and we settled 102. Based on the last 12 month averages we are happy with that. This is our first ever DVC purchase and we figured we were not going to let a few dollars/point keep us from buying if we found something we liked. Good Luck!

That was my exact thought with my SSR contract. They were asking $105, I offered $91, and we settled at $93, which is well below the last 12 month averages, especially for the size of contract that I bought. Could I have gotten it for $88 or 90 if I had waited another month or two, maybe? But it would have pushed me closer to my first planned usage of my points and availability may have forced me into a higher point room size or view type. Values will recover over the next few years, and my purchase will look like a great value. I'm satisfied, and will likely look to purchase another contract at a different home resort if prices continue to fall in the coming months. It is a buyer's market, and I'll take advantage.

 

[bookwormde]

5/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

 

[macman123]

5/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

These are really helpful. I assume though if average daily is always above 100% then the daily average gradually goes up too?

 

[bookwormde]

These are really helpful. I assume though if average daily is always above 100% then the daily average gradually goes up too?

The basis of average is fixed and based on the 6 months before covid

 

[lovethesun12]

I wonder why there are so few listings at www.fidelityresales.com ? They usually have a large number

I guess it's because most of their listings come from Disney, and Disney is closed?

 

[bookwormde]

I wonder why there are so few listings at www.fidelityresales.com ? They usually have a large number

I guess it's because most of their listings come from Disney, and Disney is closed?

by reports, the sales side at DVD is not taking calls so the assumption is that they are closed The sale processing side appears to be open though the level of staffing is suspect.

Fidelity has dropped their commission rate and are picking up more resales than a couple of weeks ago, though it is still well below normal.

It will we interesting to see if there is pent up selling demand that goes to fidelity when DVD reopens sales

 

[macman123]

by reports, the sales side at DVD is not taking calls so the assumption is that they are closed The sale processing side appears to be open though the level of staffing is suspect.

Fidelity has dropped their commission rate and are picking up more resales than a couple of weeks ago, though it is still well below normal.

It will we interesting to see if there is pent up selling demand that goes to fidelity when DVD reopens sales

I assume Fidelity is the broker which DVC recommends?

 

[bookwormde]

I assume Fidelity is the broker which DVC recommends?

Historically they have been, but I have not had any confirmation in recent months

 

[bookwormde]

5/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

 

[macman123]

5/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

I guess weekends tend to be quieter?

 

[CastAStone]

5/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

Can you post a weekly average? The daily numbers seem to bounce around so much

 

[Hopfather28]

Prices are definitely falling. I offered 80% of list value on a PVB and it was accepted.

 

[jberndt10]

Prices are definitely falling. I offered 80% of list value on a PVB and it was accepted.

What do you mean list value, 80% of asking price?

 

[Hopfather28]

What do you mean list value, 80% of asking price?

Yes sorry wrong lingo. 80% of what the seller had it listed for and was asking for. Specifically, $120 is what I am paying.