Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

Below is the average asking on the aggregating site and my guesses for what resale contacts that come on the market will average for the next 6 months, what are yours?

actuals in (###)

6/1 new contract levels and sales data updated are below

These represent the averages from 5/16 to 5/31

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 199 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

I have added average actual selling price for April from DIS ROFR [] and April for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057


I have added partial numbers for DIS ROFR for May and the reseller data for May

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April and 6/1 for May: Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1 ...6/1 …7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[104]{105} 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(152*)[138]{141} 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[110]{116} 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[139]{147} 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[155]{161} 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[ND/96} {93} 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]66} 52 50 48




*over 50% less than 100 pts

With the exception of OKW, BLT and Poly most significant increases were from a single contract at 30%+ above average

 

[TraderSamWDW]

It is a good question. A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.

Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.

I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.

Is there a source for that? Or is it just speculation?

 

[poofyo101]

Is there a source for that? Or is it just speculation?

speculation.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Is there a source for that? Or is it just speculation?

Speculation. Disney has a lot of debt service and very little income right now. They actually have to worry about the health of their overall business. Certainly could be wrong, but between the Fox acquisition and almost non existent income right now, they have a lot of debt service and little cash flow. Combine that with how they cannibalized their own business models for Disney Plus (at least in the short term) further reducing income.....

ETA: a lot of other companies in similar sectors are likely to go bankrupt or need a bail out just to stay in business. (Carnival and Royal Caribbean being 2 that come to mind)

I should have said "PROBABLY wont be doing that"

 

[bookwormde]

Much of the modeling I used was from the great recession (figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective). As part of this I am expecting a dramatic reduction in ROFR in late spring and summer, except where they are selling new points and need to support the market.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

It is a good question. A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.

Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.

I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash

Has there been an announcement that DIS won’t be doing ROFR?

Edit: Nevermind, I see it was speculation. Makes sense though.

 

[Brianstl]

40-50% drop, more if this last more than 8 weeks.

 

[poofyo101]

One of the big brokers who does instant sale has lowered their prices really really low on their instant offers now.

 

[DaveNan]

what about RR

 

[Brianstl]

Here is the list of average resale prices for https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.

 

[Brianstl]

what about RR

Probably even bigger drop there as there will be a ton of buyer's regret from people who just recently bought contracts.

 

[MICKIMINI]

ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!

 

[Brianstl]

ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!

Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in. Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in. Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.

With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996. DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero. I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop. If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract. DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR. Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO. Be well.

 

[skippytx]

They'll soften what they take in ROFR, but there won't be any giveaways like VGF @90 or something silly like that.

This all depends on how long the current situation lasts. If the domestic parks are closed for 2 more months it'll be a much different situation than if things get back up and going in 2 weeks or so.

 

[bookwormde]

what about RR

there are so few resales and the impact of the resale restrictions has no history so I could not model it

I would be interested if anyone has guesses for RR

 

[Brianstl]

With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996. DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero. I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop. If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract. DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR. Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO. Be well.

Disney has never had revenue disrupted to this level before. Disney just sold another $6 billion in debt to fund operations. Disney isn't paying 3.8% interest to have cash to buyback DVC contracts at a time they have no revenue coming in.

 

[bookwormde]

Here is the list of average resale prices for https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.

View attachment 482372

here is the longer term trend from this reseller

 

[Brian Noble]

figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective

I think we are headed for something that will be worse than the Great Recession. Illinois saw 64,000 unemployment claims in three days starting on March 16. Ohio saw 140,000 in the week ending yesterday. The WSJ has a panel of economists estimating about 875,000 claims this week nationwide. Goldman Sachs thinks it could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.

Some of those jobs will come back, but some of them won't---at least, not right away. The underlying businesses will have failed in the meantime.