When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

With 100,000 behind us I wonder if it's slowing or just become less aggressive.

It seems like they've been looking at both of those really in terms of researching.

When I was reading about the virus potentially being considered endemic it was with the framing that the virus over time would get less severe in the reactions our bodies have as more of us had the exposure to it and our bodies could 'remember' it. I don't really know if we've had enough time for that to happen quite yet but who knows. But there's also a case to be said of slowing down the rate of spread maybe by more immediate action when outbreaks occur and I think that type of response is happening.

I know that nursing/long-term homes have been hit particularly hard too. It's possible on that front efforts to more quickly identify and mitigate spread (in an environment where spread happened normally really quickly), improve procedures and policies surrounding interaction (including PPE) may be helping on that front on a national level. There's been more attention paid to other vulnerable populations including minorities I could see that being a possibility to. But these are just musings out loud. The rate at which the deaths were happening were horrifying to say the least.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Horrifying is a good word but still doesn't seem big and loud enough for the heartbreak. I don't know if there are words for some things.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Horrifying is a good word but still doesn't seem big and loud enough for the heartbreak. I don't know if there are words for some things.

I'm liking your post because yes I do agree, was kinda the only thing I could think of but certainly the gravity of the death rate is more than what simple descriptors could do.

 

[bookwormde]

More sad projections, 200K US deaths by 10/1/20 (range of 170K to 270K

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
I sure hope the new treatments keep this on the low end since we do not seem to be able to manage to significantly reduce or even keep stable new infections in many area

I do not want to even think of a second wave on top of this high base line next winter

 

[sam_gordon]

More sad projections, 200K US deaths by 10/1/20 (range of 170K to 270K

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
I sure hope the new treatments keep this on the low end since we do not seem to be able to manage to significantly reduce or even keep stable new infections in many area

I do not want to even think of a second wave on top of this high base line next winter

We are currently 105 days from 10/1.
We are 80,045 deaths from 200,000.
That's an average of 762 deaths/day.
I would not be surprised if it happens.

 

[hsmamato2]

We are currently 105 days from 10/1.
We are 80,045 deaths from 200,000.
That's an average of 762 deaths/day.
I would not be surprised if it happens.

this is true. the current daily numbers are bearing that out.....

 

[Planogirl]

That is sad. So many things I could say but what's the point?

 

[hsmamato2]

That is sad. So many things I could say but what's the point?

exactly how I feel

 

[mousefan73]

On a positive note when I look at the number of daily cases curve and the daily death curve for just the month of May, the number of daily deaths is a clear decline Vs the daily cases ( stagnant). If you add in:
1. Nursing home deaths are declining as 1. They’ve already been hit 2. They know more on how to protect the vulnerable.
2. We know now how to better treat serious cases. Blood clots etc.
3. The possibility of mutations “ weakening “ the virus.

looking ahead the only concern is the the sudden change of the daily case curve going back up.Weeks will tell how the death rate reacts.
We can only be hopeful.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

On a positive note when I look at the number of daily cases curve and the daily death curve for just the month of May, the number of daily deaths is a clear decline Vs the daily cases ( stagnant). If you add in:
1. Nursing home deaths are declining as 1. They’ve already been hit 2. They know more on how to protect the vulnerable.
2. We know now how to better treat serious cases. Blood clots etc.
3. The possibility of mutations “ weakening “ the virus.

looking ahead the only concern is the the sudden change of the daily case curve going back up.Weeks will tell how the death rate reacts.
We can only be hopeful.

I’ve thought about this too and it leaves me wondering how many cases we really missed early on with lack of testing. Still a very serious situation obviously, but I wish we had more complete data on the condition of these increased case numbers and also reliable antibody testing. Trying to be hopeful that we’re catching more early/mild cases and the death rate won’t spike back up too.

 

[godisney14]

On a positive note when I look at the number of daily cases curve and the daily death curve for just the month of May, the number of daily deaths is a clear decline Vs the daily cases ( stagnant). If you add in:
1. Nursing home deaths are declining as 1. They’ve already been hit 2. They know more on how to protect the vulnerable.
2. We know now how to better treat serious cases. Blood clots etc.
3. The possibility of mutations “ weakening “ the virus.

looking ahead the only concern is the the sudden change of the daily case curve going back up.Weeks will tell how the death rate reacts.
We can only be hopeful.

Doesn’t matter what happened in May. We’re already more than halfway through June and the situation is a lot worse in many places.

True, it’s a little less about nursing homes now, and more about ignorant younger people.

We really don’t know a whole lot better how to treat serious cases. We have some ideas, but nothing that’s standardized care. Otherwise, we wouldn’t need all the ongoing clinical trials and continue to have deaths.

Mutations do not “weaken” a virus. That last statement is incorrect in many ways.

 

[RamblingMad]

It’s going to accelerate. FL reported 3207 cases and AZ reported 2519. Deaths lag new cases, but we should start seeing them top a thousand a day again. They just won’t be mostly from NY.

 

[Searc]

Doesn’t matter what happened in May. We’re already more than halfway through June and the situation is a lot worse in many places.

True, it’s a little less about nursing homes now, and more about ignorant younger people.

We really don’t know a whole lot better how to treat serious cases. We have some ideas, but nothing that’s standardized care. Otherwise, we wouldn’t need all the ongoing clinical trials and continue to have deaths.

Mutations do not “weaken” a virus. That last statement is incorrect in many ways.

It's about ignorant people, period.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Over 120,000 today. 20,000 more in 24 days, 833 average per day. At this rate, without increases, 200,000 in about 3 months, September.

 

[RamblingMad]

Over 120,000 today. 20,000 more in 24 days, 833 average per day. At this rate, without increases, 200,000 in about 3 months, September.

It’s still spreading. I’ll guess two months to 200 thousand.

 

[ChrisFL]

I think deaths also go way up when hospitals were overwhelmed. I remember hearing a few times back in March/April where the key idea for quarantine was to ensure hospitals didn't get overwhelmed.

I haven't heard too much regarding existing changes in treatment causing lower mortality, besides the one mentioned 2 days ago

 

[RamblingMad]

I think deaths also go way up when hospitals were overwhelmed. I remember hearing a few times back in March/April where the key idea for quarantine was to ensure hospitals didn't get overwhelmed.

I haven't heard too much regarding existing changes in treatment causing lower mortality, besides the one mentioned 2 days ago

I feel like the nation closed down due to NY regardless of cases in each state. Those that didn’t have a lot of cases like AZ shutdown before the virus really started gaining speed. Now that we’re reopening folks disregard the virus completely. We weren’t hit bad enough to make people care. By the time they do, we’ll be like NY for cases. It will just take longer to spread because we’re less densely populated.

 

[choirfarm]

I feel like the nation closed down due to NY regardless of cases in each state. Those that didn’t have a lot of cases like AZ shutdown before the virus really started gaining speed. Now that we’re reopening folks disregard the virus completely. We weren’t hit bad enough to make people care. By the time they do, we’ll be like NY for cases. It will just take longer to spread because we’re less densely populated.

Yes, hindsite is 20/20, isn't it? I feel like half the country could have remained open and then like now AZ clamps down. But getting people to lock back down is going to be really hard. It will have to get bad before they will. But that is a view from a Monday Morning quarterback. Even I felt like we should be locked tight at the beginning. We just didn't know what we didn't know.

 

[mom2rtk]

I feel like the nation closed down due to NY regardless of cases in each state. Those that didn’t have a lot of cases like AZ shutdown before the virus really started gaining speed. Now that we’re reopening folks disregard the virus completely. We weren’t hit bad enough to make people care. By the time they do, we’ll be like NY for cases. It will just take longer to spread because we’re less densely populated.

That's been my thought all along. I'm in Missouri. We don't have a spike yet but I won't be shocked if we do. I said at the time they locked down that it was too early. That they'll likely only get one shot at a solid shutdown and I thought they played that card too soon here.

 

[RamblingMad]

That's been my thought all along. I'm in Missouri. We don't have a spike yet but I won't be shocked if we do. I said at the time they locked down that it was too early. That they'll likely only get one shot at a solid shutdown and I thought they played that card too soon here.

Yep. There is no way we lock down again, so we get to experience the equivalent of NY in our hospitals. Good times in our future.