When will resale bottom?

[michelleiada]

I'm hoping prices drop a bit temporarily so I can purchase my second contract at a good price. I'll be watching the market very closely over the next few months.

 

[ColonialMouse]

I would expect that in the short term buyers who have been looking will think the contracts may be worth less, so will offer less. But if I'm an agent, I'm going to recommend that sellers expect that and unless they need to sell immediately, wait a few months until the shock has worn off and see what happens. So in the short term I imagine prices may go down, maybe even significantly, but with little volume. And Disney is likely to ROFR a lot of them. Beyond that, I can't imagine Disney lowering their current pricing and especially if VWL comes out with a higher price, I don't know that the fundamental price support for DVC changes much. Though honestly even before the recent change, I wasn't sure the price increase in the last year wouldn't reverse.

Note that my investment strategy is passive index funds, so I place no value in my market predictions

Bruce