What's the Next DVC Property?

[CaptainAmerica]

YC is almost always left out of public discounts (pre-COVID) because between guarantee blocks for conventions and then other users, they've never had issues filling it.

Disney need to be able to offer 1000+ guarantee rooms for the most choice conventions. The preference by organizers is for most of them to be at BWI, BC and YC. Disney sometimes work with Swolphin for some of those rooms in the block. Jumbo events, like Gartner, also use CSR, part of GF, part of CR.

Losing the guarantee block in YC would hurt them compared to OCC.

If wage inflation keeps going like it has been, we could end up in a weird situation where business travel ends up in a prolonged 9/11-ish slump while leisure travel exceeds its pre-covid peaks.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Again, Europe is going to take another travel hit thanks to the Ukrainian war. This will continue to push demand for US travel and WDW. DVC flips will be ripe for expansion.

 

[RoseGold]

Big pine is about 200 rooms flipped. Yacht Club has about 630 rooms. Maybe yacht club couldn’t lose 200 rooms for the conference crowd. But maybe 150 would work, especially with the new swan reserve there for the conferences. Yacht Club is aging, and it has some rooms with lousy views.

Aruba is a really interesting idea to me. But it has all the drawbacks of the riviera points, which DVC is sitting on plenty of.

 

[DeeBee3]

I was genuinely disappointed when they scrubbed Reflections.

Anywho - with the rate of inflation and general shrinkage of people's wages because of that, I doubt there will be additional action very soon. Of course, now we have additional uncertainty with Ukraine and whatever issues will result with that. The average US consumer is and will continue to pay skyrocketing costs for basic household necessities, especially energy related. People will not have the income to continue purchasing DVC in an inflationary environment.

Just my opinion.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If wage inflation keeps going like it has been, we could end up in a weird situation where business travel ends up in a prolonged 9/11-ish slump while leisure travel exceeds its pre-covid peaks.

I just don't know how much they'd want to limit that convention center's ability to rebound, KWIM? They invested a LOT in upgrading the Boardwalk Center. (And CSR. But nothing in Contemporary, which is why I continue to think it is dead convention center walking.)

 

[nuhusky123]

You say "unfortunately," but I bet you 50 SSR sleep-around points that the VGF Resort Studios will be much more popular than the Deluxe Studios, and not just for the initial wave of curiosity.

After seeing the walk through the resort studios are much nicer than deluxe in my opinion

 

[RoseGold]

I see the opening price point on VGF2 as a declaration of war against resale. That combined with the special incentives they have been featuring on sold out resorts the past few months tells me that their strategy for the foreseeable future is to focus on selling what they have and taking more market share from resale.

I agree. If VGF were buying time to stall for a couple years, it would have been priced higher. They priced it to sell, which means something is coming from behind. Worst case scenario to me, as an owner who cares about the value of my points, is an off-site, low priced resort. Best case would be nothing new, which I don't think is the plan.

 

[davidl81]

I just don't know how much they'd want to limit that convention center's ability to rebound, KWIM? They invested a LOT in upgrading the Boardwalk Center. (And CSR. But nothing in Contemporary, which is why I continue to think it is dead convention center walking.)

I think in regards to YC we have not considered the impact of Swan Reserve and how that will pull away from YC rooms. If these convention rooms can get booked at 75% of the YC price at Swan Reserve that has to end up impacting YC cash booking rates to some level.

 

[Hoppy-tn]

If they converted the boardwalk hotel side to dvc could they make it something separate with a new contract expiration year?

 

[Sandisw]

If they converted the boardwalk hotel side to dvc could they make it something separate with a new contract expiration year?

Yes. I think that is a good possibility. They flip them a few years from when BWV expires, new condo association and then in 2042, add the current villas to that association and sell those points with only 45 years left..similar to what just happened at VGF but other way around.

We could see the same at BC. They wouldn’t take all the rooms but enough to carry them until 2042.

 

[CraigInPA]

I think people are forgetting that there is still a convention center at the Contemporary. As long as that still exists, Disney will not be tearing down or converting the garden wing of the Contemporary because they need those rooms to handle the convention center guests.

This changes if Disney decides that the convention centers in the Boardwalk area (Yacht Club, Swan, Dolphin) have enough room capacity and exhibit space. If they decide they no longer need the Contemporary exhibit space, then they get to re-develop the whole convention area of the Contemporary, including the convention center itself, the 4th floor of the Contemporary (currently two huge ballrooms and several meeting rooms), and the Garden Wing rooms. I could see Disney tearing down the convention center and putting up a low rise "mini Contemporary" as cash rooms (or tear down and rebuild nothing), "re-imagining" the 4th floor into outside cash rooms and smaller inside ballrooms, and putting up the long awaited BLT2 tower over the area where the current Garden wing sits. But, make no mistake, this design is not something they're going to throw up overnight. It's probably a 5+ year project once they start, and it makes NO sense to do it unless there is strong DVC interest AND they've convinced themselves that the Boardwalk area convention facilities are sufficient.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’m really curious about transportation options, especially the skyliner. People seem agreeable to monorail or skyliner, but they hate the bus and all the stops. If they offer decent transportation options, it makes going a little further offsite more palatable, and, therefore, opens up options for building or converting further from the parks.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Enough new DVC! What we need more is for Disney to invest more in the parks!

 

[chalee94]

Again, Europe is going to take another travel hit thanks to the Ukrainian war. This will continue to push demand for US travel and WDW. DVC flips will be ripe for expansion.

A lot depends on how the world handles Russian oil exports. If gas prices double, leisure travel will take a big hit. (And higher fuel prices for truckers means another step up in inflation.)

We'll see.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think people are forgetting that there is still a convention center at the Contemporary. As long as that still exists, Disney will not be tearing down or converting the garden wing of the Contemporary because they need those rooms to handle the convention center guests.

Up thread I mentioned them tearing down the CR convention center and the garden rooms to create another BLT2 tower.
The CR convention center is a white elephant. It’s old, outdated, small, located in a horrible location for any attendees arriving from other resorts or offsite hotels (it’s way too deep into WDW and has poor interstate access), and it’s awkwardly located in a ring of resort not convention hotels.
I can see them focusing on the CSR center with the new tower, super easy access to highways, and the ability to expand ii to increase functionality and flexibility.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Up thread I mentioned them tearing down the CR convention center and the garden rooms to create another BLT2 tower.
The CR convention center is a white elephant. It’s old, outdated, relatively small, located in a horrible location for any attendees arriving from other resorts or offsite hotels (it’s way too deep into WDW and has poor interstate access), and it’s awkwardly located in a ring of resort not convention hotels.
I can see them focusing on the CSR center with the new tower, super easy access to highways, and the ability to expand it.

*Whispers*

Gran Destino is also just plain nicer than the Contemporary.

*Runs and hides.*

 

[DonMacGregor]

*Whispers*

Gran Destino is also just plain nicer than the Contemporary.

*Runs and hides.*

 

[CaptainAmerica]

View attachment 652277

After staying at Gran Destino for a last minute trip over Labor Day, I was absolutely thrilled with it. It's dull on the outside but the lobby feels like Riviera with a splash of color. The elevators are efficient, the staff is excellent, and the rooms are huge.

The quick service dining situation at that resort is still shockingly bad, but the Three Bridges restaurant has one of the best burgers on property, along with some other great options.

 

[Jwaire]

If they converted the boardwalk hotel side to dvc could they make it something separate with a new contract expiration year?

They could, but it would be messy and confusing.

So ...

Yacht Club #1 - High demand, full flip, 1, 2 and deluxe studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$$$

Yacht Club #2 - High demand, easy flip—only resort studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$

Poly #1 - High demand, easy flip, could use same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; only negative is there's already a lot of DVC studios available at this location, $$

Poly #2 - High demand, new construction, recycle original DVC tower design, could use same association, reclaim prime real estate from Luau area, offer 1 and 2 bedroom lock-offs, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; $$$$

Wilderness Lodge - Easy flip, could use the same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2068 expiration, food (Whispering Canyon, Artist Point, Geyser Point, Roaring Fork, Territory Lounge, etc.) and transportation (Boat, Bus) options are adequate, $$

Contemporary #1- New construction, recycle original Bay Lake Tower 2 design, offer all room types, 50 year deed, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate, $$$$

Contemporary #2 - Garden Wing flip, resort studios, could use the same association, 2060 expiration, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate; not as marketable, $

I'm in for Yacht. Would prefer 1 and 2 bedroom options, but I'd take a cheap, resort studios flip just for location, food and pool. I'd consider BLT2 direct, but not a flipped Garden Wing. I already own Poly and I'd just buy CC on the resale market if I wanted WL.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They could, but it would be messy and confusing.

So ...

Yacht Club #1 - High demand, full flip, 1, 2 and deluxe studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$$$

Yacht Club #2 - High demand, easy flip—only resort studios, 50 year deed, food (Yachtman's Steakhouse, Ale & Compass, Cape May Cafe, Beaches & Cream, Crew's Cup, etc.) and transportation (Walk to Epcot & Studios, Bus, Skyliner, Boat) options are adequate; only negative the resort is used primarily for convention travelers, $$

Poly #1 - High demand, easy flip, could use same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; only negative is there's already a lot of DVC studios available at this location, $$

Poly #2 - High demand, new construction, recycle original DVC tower design, could use same association, reclaim prime real estate from Luau area, offer 1 and 2 bedroom lock-offs, 2066 expiration; food (Capt Cook's, O'Hana, Kona, Pineapple Lanai, Tambu Lounge, Trader Sam's, Oasis Bar, Kona Island) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to TTC, Boat) options are adequate; $$$$

Wilderness Lodge - Easy flip, could use the same association, offer both deluxe and resort studios, 2068 expiration, food (Whispering Canyon, Artist Point, Geyser Point, Roaring Fork, Territory Lounge, etc.) and transportation (Boat, Bus) options are adequate, $$

Contemporary #1- New construction, recycle original Bay Lake Tower 2 design, offer all room types, 50 year deed, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate, $$$$

Contemporary #2 - Garden Wing flip, resort studios, could use the same association, 2060 expiration, food (Steakhouse 71, Outer Rim, California Grill, Chef Mickey's, Contempo Cafe, etc.) and transportation (Monorail, Buses, Walk to MK, Boat) options are adequate; not as marketable, $

I'm in for Yacht. Would prefer 1 and 2 bedroom options, but I'd take a cheap, resort studios flip just for location, food and pool. I'd consider BLT2 direct, but not a flipped Garden Wing. I already own Poly and I'd just buy CC on the resale market if I wanted WL.

I don't think Poly 2 is viable. That resort's infrastructure is already strained as it is, I don't think it could support a new tower unless that tower came with its own pools, dining, lobby, and everything else.