Whats next?....after VEP

[Jaga]

Now that we know VEP will keep DVC running onwards and upwards to 2004

Does anyone have a crystal ball, heard rumours or any preferences for what happens next?

Possibly DVC II, or DVC in California or even Paris.

My vote goes for Animal Kingdom Lodge

Any thoughts ?

 

[Werner Weiss]

Now that we know VEP will keep DVC running onwards and upwards to 2004

Actually, the first two buildings won't even open until mid-2004, and it will take years to sell out the 600-unit complex -- so the new DVC resort at Eagle Pines "will keep DVC running onwards and upwards" for many year beyond 2004.

Does anyone have a crystal ball, heard rumours or any preferences for what happens next?

I don't have any inside knowledge, but I'll be glad to speculate.

Possibly DVC II, or DVC in California or even Paris.

"DVC II" is a term that's used on this board to refer to a time when Disney sells DVC ownerships with an expiration date that's after 2042. It seems that, so far, people are just as willing to buy DVC memberships that last 40 years as when they lasted 50 years, so I expect to see the 2042 expiration around for at least another ten years.

I don't see DVC coming to California. DVC had a great site in California. See my article Disney's Newport Coast Villas, the Disney Vacation Club that Never Happened.

The rumor is that Marriott -- not Disney -- will build a Vacation Club at Disneyland Paris. That's consistant with the current hotel expansion at Disneyland Paris, where outside lodging companies, not Euro Disney SCA, are building additional on-site hotels.

I don't expect to see any additional DVC resorts outside of WDW, unless merger mania continues and Disney finds itself under the same corporate umbrella as a lodging company; at that point, the lodging company might want to leverage the Disney name and reputation.

My vote goes for Animal Kingdom Lodge

I've never been to Disney's Animal Kingdom Lodge, but I wonder if there's really any way to add DVC units with a view of the grazing animals without messing up the views from the current guest rooms. The alternatives would be DVC units without views of the animals (thereby eliminating much of the appeal of the Animal Kingdom Lodge) or adding another savannah just for the DVC units, with the costs all passed on to the DVC owners (thereby creating the potential for rather high annual dues.) I tend to believe that if the Animal Kingdom Lodge had been destined to have DVC units, they would have been built in conjunction with the Lodge itself.

Any thoughts ?

I think Disney could be successful in expanding the DVC timeshare concept at all-year locations outside WDW, such as Hawaii or Southern California -- but I don't expect this to happen.

I imagine that there's already a tentative master plan for future DVC resorts at WDW. The next could be a DVC resort integrated with a new full-service resort (similar the Boardwalk Inn and Villas) or a DVC resort added to an existing full-service resort (silimar to the Villas and Wilderness Lodge and the Beach Club Villas). I predict the first units will open in 2007.

But I could be wrong.

 

[Joeblack]

Excellent post Werner. I coincide with all your predictions.

 

[drusba]

Just an extra comment. One of the keys to VEP is that even once it is done, it would be easy for Disney to just add on more buildings later in the same area as basically the resort is being built on 61 acres of land that will be contingent to a lot more acres of unused land.

 

[Werner Weiss]

Any other rumors, speculation, or wishes?

 

[infodude]

With the extremely slow sales of the Vero Beach and Hilton Head DVC's, speculation is that it will be a long time before another off property resort is built. The Villa's at Wilderness lodge are on a jet pace to sell out in record time. And demand for the Beach Club villas is very high too. It will not take "years" to sell the Villa's at Eagle Pines. drusba is correct, there is plenty of land to "add on" building if they wanted. It is also rumoured that a DVC resort will be added onto the Ospry Ridge course as well in the future. There is lots of vacant land at WDW and rumours abound every day about new "attractions" and new "resorts". Disney changes it's mind every day depending on the economy, and what hot with the kids, and what is raking in cash, so we will have to wait and see...

 

[vernon]

I asked the DVC rep at AKL if there was ANY chance DVC being built there and his view was that it would not be easy to build an "add on" DVC, if there had been any intention of putting a DVC with AKL it would have been in from the beginning. Obviously he's not going to say NEVER but IMHO it was as close as you're going to get. I agreed with his veiws, but I was alittle dissapointed as AKL is a wonderful hotel.

 

[Dumbo]

Werner wrote:

>>Any other rumors, speculation, or wishes?<<
______________________________________


Werner,

Interesting question. I have some thoughts.

First of all, I think a DVC at Animal Kingdom lodge is definitly out of the question. I think AKL is a novelty right now which should soon wear off. I think Disney will have a hard time filling this resort in the future. I just don't think there is enough of a market out there for an African themed resort.

What about this. A DVC at the monorail resorts. How about a Grand Floridian, Polynesian, or Contempory DVC. No I'm not talking about building another building for a DVC, but instead takeing one of the buildings that make up those resorts, re-modeling them into studios, 1 and 2 bedroom villas. The buildings are already there. You can easily convert the South Garden wing at the Contempory to DVC. Or just a portion of one of the buildings at the Grand Floridian or the Polynesian. Or how about the top 2 floors at one of those resorts.

What do you think? Would it sell? Personally, I believe it would sell like hot cakes.

Dumbo

 

[DVCDAVE]

DUMBO !!!,

You must have read my mind. I was thinking the same thing about the garden wing of the Contemporary Resort being converted to DVC. It almost lends itself to conversion. But wouldn't that lead to a capital gain, taxable event for Disney ??? After all they are probably carrying that building at zero cost basis, as it has already been depreciated, further the land was bought for $40 an acre, and hasn't been depreciated. So, in terms of economics, a sale to DVC would accutally leave them with less money after tax, then building a new wing ?!

 

[Werner Weiss]

I imagine that there are financial wizards at Disney who could figure out how to deal with the tax ramifications of a timeshare conversion. The property would be transferred between Disney departments (with appropriate internal accounting), with Disney Vacation Development then rennovating the property and selling deeded leases (DVC memberships). I'm not convinced there's even a capital gain issue, but I'm not an accountant or tax attorney.

A bigger issue in converting Contemporary Garden Wing rooms to DVC usage would be whether the rooms could be brought up to the standards the DVC has set at BWV and VWL. How does the square footage compare, even if two or three bays are combined to form 1- and 2-bedroom condos? DVC member would rightfully expect such units to have full kitchens and all the other features that DVC members are accustomed to. Also, keep in mind that the Contemporary, the first phase of the Poly, and the Golf Resort (Shades of Green) were built with "factory built" modular rooms, so it would probably be much more difficult to move interior walls than with conventional contruction.

But I really like the idea of converting Contemporary Garden Wing rooms to DVC usage.