What will Disney's next set of restrictions be?

[skier_pete]

Are they able to mess w booking windows on existing contracts or is it written into the contract?

It's in the contract. Home resorts owner only need to legally be given a one month home advantage, so they could easily give direct.and resale different home advantages.

someone asked if it would be retroactive, I would not expect ANY change they made to.effect.existing resale owners. That's one thing they've been very consistent about.

 

[SL6827]

It's in the contract. Home resorts owner only need to legally be given a one month home advantage, so they could easily give direct.and resale different home advantages.

someone asked if it would be retroactive, I would not expect ANY change they made to.effect.existing resale owners. That's one thing they've been very consistent about.

Then I think the chances of this happening could be good at some point. But hopefully not. What I think it could do also is make people think twice before buying a direct contract. If I were to need to sell that contract at some point, it's value would be no where what I paid for it, and Disney might forsee that as well.

 

[skier_pete]

Then I think the chances of this happening could be good at some point. But hopefully not. What I think it could do also is make people think twice before buying a direct contract. If I were to need to sell that contract at some point, it's value would be no where what I paid for it, and Disney might forsee that as well.

That's what I don't know what they were thinking with the most recent restrictions. I guess maybe the thought that Riviera is so nice people will want to buy resale contracts anyways? I just think about when the 2042s all run out. Who would buy a resort likeOKW if they are trapped there? Or HHI and Vero? I mean I realize this is years off and Disney is a big corporation that doesn't think beyond the next quarter - but it seems to me they are just shooting themselves in the foot right now.

 

[CarolMN]

It's in the contract. Home resorts owner only need to legally be given a one month home advantage, so they could easily give direct.and resale different home advantages.

someone asked if it would be retroactive, I would not expect ANY change they made to.effect.existing resale owners. That's one thing they've been very consistent about.

As far as booking DVC resorts goes, there is nothing in the existing contracts that would allow them to treat owners differently based on how they acquired their points.

That would be a very drastic change to make for new resorts. IMO, it would hurt direct sales more than help them. Can't see them doing that.

 

[EM Lawrence]

That's what I don't know what they were thinking with the most recent restrictions. I guess maybe the thought that Riviera is so nice people will want to buy resale contracts anyways? I just think about when the 2042s all run out. Who would buy a resort likeOKW if they are trapped there? Or HHI and Vero? I mean I realize this is years off and Disney is a big corporation that doesn't think beyond the next quarter - but it seems to me they are just shooting themselves in the foot right now.

I agree with this. I know Riviera has its fans, but as someone in the market for DVC who does not currently own, the resale restrictions are keeping me from buying Riviera. There are too many things unknown about how that will look in 10-15 years. At least with the 2042 resorts, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Now if they reopen direct sales and offer RIV at $85 pp, I’ll reconsider. (I realize that is not likely.)

 

[skier_pete]

As far as booking DVC resorts goes, there is nothing in the existing contracts that would allow them to treat owners differently based on how they acquired their points.

That would be a very drastic change to make for new resorts. IMO, it would hurt direct sales more than help them. Can't see them doing that.

You are right - but they have set precedent now with the current Riviera resale restrictions. All I'm saying is the documentation says specifically that direct ownership does not guarantee you an 11-month window in the existing POS documents, it guarantees you at least one month advantage over non-owners. So assuming that they kept non-owners at 7 months, they already could change everyone to the 8 month mark if they wanted to. So I'm just forecasting that if they wanted to change the resale owners booking window to shorter than 11-months, they could because it is already written into the documentation that it doesn't have to be 11-months.

 

[CarolMN]

You are right - but they have set precedent now with the current Riviera resale restrictions. All I'm saying is the documentation says specifically that direct ownership does not guarantee you an 11-month window in the existing POS documents, it guarantees you at least one month advantage over non-owners. So assuming that they kept non-owners at 7 months, they already could change everyone to the 8 month mark if they wanted to. So I'm just forecasting that if they wanted to change the resale owners booking window to shorter than 11-months, they could because it is already written into the documentation that it doesn't have to be 11-months.

I still don't think they can give direct owners a different booking window than resale owners. If they give owners who purchased directly a four month advantage, they also have to give a resale owner a four month advantage. This is for the home resort. There might be a way to do it for booking non-home resorts, but the agreements with BVTC would have to be amended.

IOW, for booking the home resort, an owner is an owner is an owner. Doesn't matter how the owner acquired the points.

 

[DougEMG]

It's in the contract. Home resorts owner only need to legally be given a one month home advantage, so they could easily give direct.and resale different home advantages.

someone asked if it would be retroactive, I would not expect ANY change they made to.effect.existing resale owners. That's one thing they've been very consistent about.

Doesn't homeowners mean both direct and resale home owners? I can't see them being allowed to given direct and resale owners different booking windows at their home resort.

What is more likely is that they mess around with the 7 month window. For example home owners book at home resort at 11 months, direct owner could book at any resort at 10 months (this still gives home owners that 1 month advantage) and resale owners can only book non-home resorts at 7 months.

 

[SL6827]

Well I have really no clue as to whether Disney can mess with the booking windows or not. Even if they legally can't, dosen't mean they won't try. But I do think if they were able to do so it would really de-value the system in general.

 

[macman123]

Do you think Disney would ever say, well pay us, say $20 a point and we can 'convert' them to direct points?

That would be a way of making easy money for nothing.

 

[wnielsen1]

Do you think Disney would ever say, well pay us, say $20 a point and we can 'convert' them to direct points?

That would be a way of making easy money for nothing.

Sure they would. But $20/point sounds too reasonable to be Disney's asking price.

 

[macman123]

Sure they would. But $20/point sounds too reasonable to be Disney's asking price.

But you get my point. In a time of a cash shortfall they could get extra money by doing very little.

 

[Sandisw]

Do you think Disney would ever say, well pay us, say $20 a point and we can 'convert' them to direct points?

That would be a way of making easy money for nothing.

Any allowance to give resale points direct member benefits is going to be the cost of new points...not just paying a fee,

For example, if you own 150 resale points, you buy 150 direct points and all 300 work for all resorts.

Once thing they won’t do is make it so buying resale plus a fee is still cheaper than direct. It would move more people to resale, not less.

I could also see them adding a trade fee for reservations. For example, someone pays $5/pt to upgrade points to stay at RIV with resale points...or, charge resale RIV owners the same to trade out.

 

[macman123]

Ah, thats why I have 155 direct. So I can stay at newer resorts..........

 

[SL6827]

All these possibilities make it more important now more than ever to buy where you want to stay. And though I doubt I will ever jump back in, that is bad for people like me who really like to sleep around. Even though the Beach Club would be my ultimate home resort, there is no way I would want to stay there every single trip.

 

[Bearval]

But you get my point. In a time of a cash shortfall they could get extra money by doing very little.

It will never happen. People would just pay the fee to convert enough to qualify for a blue card .

 

[SL6827]

Seen a BCV contract with 100 points for sale on Fidelity for $133 a point I think.

 

[PlutosPetDog]

To be perfectly honest I don't believe they'll do much more in the way of restrictions. Surely there are direct benefits that they could ADD but restricting more would be bad business in many ways. Why do I say this? Think about what ACTUALLY costs the most money at Disney. While accommodations are expensive, food and drink and tickets and...well younger the upsell idea. Discouraging people from purchasing a contract which thereby encourages them to travel to Disney because "they already paid for it" would mean discouraging people from spending $15 bucks on a fast food meal. Discouraging individuals from dropping $60 bucks a head to sit in Cinderella's castle. I just personally think as much as resale may not help Disney the same as direct purchasing, it definitely helps them.

Something to keep in mind - it may not make sense to treat Disney as a monolithic company. DVC is a different operating business and the folks who work there want to hit their goals. They are probably not rewarded for visitors spending money at the parks. It's hard for a publicly traded company to make good decisions with a long-term view in mind (especially between different operating businesses).

 

[Eric Smith]

Any allowance to give resale points direct member benefits is going to be the cost of new points...not just paying a fee,

For example, if you own 150 resale points, you buy 150 direct points and all 300 work for all resorts.

Once thing they won’t do is make it so buying resale plus a fee is still cheaper than direct. It would move more people to resale, not less.

I could also see them adding a trade fee for reservations. For example, someone pays $5/pt to upgrade points to stay at RIV with resale points...or, charge resale RIV owners the same to trade out.

I agree with that. I think the price would have to be $80 - $90 per point to make them equivalent. I don't see many people taking that deal.

 

[Hopfather28]

Something to keep in mind - it may not make sense to treat Disney as a monolithic company. DVC is a different operating business and the folks who work there want to hit their goals. They are probably not rewarded for visitors spending money at the parks. It's hard for a publicly traded company to make good decisions with a long-term view in mind (especially between different operating businesses).

Certainly a very valid point I hadn't considered. However, I think there are other reasons restrictions won't be created but benefits may be added. If you make the product completely unattractive in resale then the price of resale drops which certainly makes purchasing direct DVC very risky. At least now I know if I have direct contracts to sell because of emergency I'm going to get back some money. This reasoning is why certain brands of cars are more popular simply because of their resale value at trade in time.

In short...damage resale value and you damage direct value or sales numbers. Had Covid-19 not stopped everything I think by now we would have a lot of evidence that restrictions at Riviera hurt value and sales of that property.