So on another note....does anybody know what the down times for
DVC members are?
Determining slower DVC usage periods is a bit more difficult these days. In general, DVC high occupancy periods are generally when the point costs is low (off season, weekdays, etc). Thus, the opposite could be speculated (low occupancy is during high point cost times), but this is not actually the case.
For one reason, DVC did a point reallocation a couple of years ago to reduce the higher cost of weekends and smooth some of the seasonality. In addition, the busier seasons at WDW (holidays and summer) are also times when a lot of DVC members are free to visit as well. WDW has also done a good job of attracting guests (including DVC members) with special events (such as Food & Wine Festival, Flower & Garden, Cheer leading competitions and Pop Warner, Halloween and Christmas events, and business conventions).
A third factor is the sheer number of DVC owners. With ten DVC resorts (and millions of points), the ownership pool is pretty massive. Some Vero and HHI members bought there due to the low initial point cost with the plan of using their points at WDW during the seven month booking window. The same can be said for SSR resales (members buy SSR with the intention of never visiting the resort, instead booking BCV, BWV, BLT or AKL at the seven month window). As DVD continues to build DVC resorts, regardless of their location, the ownership pool grows and the ability to get any room at the seven month window becomes even more difficult.
I guess in the end it all falls back onto the DVC golden rule, "buy where you want to stay."
As for the room availability for cash guests versus members, imagine 10% of BLT owners decided to use their points to book a
Disney cruise, get a room at
Disneyland (Paradise Pier or Disneyland Hotel like we just did last weekend), or even get a room at a concierge collection hotel. Lets also assume each owner has an average of 200 points. At 5 million points total at BLT (rounded down), this would amount to 25,000 families trading out to a Disney or Concierge collection stay. That is the equivalent of 25,000 families trading their week stay at a studio or 1BR to Disney for a week stay on a cruise or a non-DVC hotel.
In simple terms, this means WDW now has 25,000 DVC studios and 1BR rooms available for cash guests (since I effectively bought the DVC room with my points then sold it to WDW in exchange for money for the cruise or non-DVC hotel room). These rooms (essentially the points) are now theirs until the end of my UY, and they can book them for someone else for cash (like we do on the rent/trade board), give them away to someone (like I do for my friends and family who go when I'm not there), or just leave them empty (as if I booked a room and decided not to use it, and that has happened before, too).
It seems the main disconnect with this concept is that we perceive Disney as a large corporation and not in terms of an owner, thus we believe any inventory they receive from a trade or points they own (due to not being sold yet, foreclosure, etc) will be put back for other owners to use. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Instead, we should assume developer points (points that have yet to be sold or resold) and points acquired by DVC due to trades for non-DVC accommodations are owned by a DVC member family and treated as such. They can be used to book a room for a friend (comp, upgrades from the moderates or values, etc), sold to a non-member for cash (via CRO), or simply booked and not used. However, I doubt you or any other member would simply give unused DVC points to other members simply because they demanded you do so (I sure wouldn't). Thus, if I chose not to use my 100 BLT points in a given year (let them expire), then there would essentially be an empty room for a couple days between August and July. If you wanted it that day (and you had to ask the member directly) and I said no, would you be mad at me for not letting you use my time? Just askin'
- Chris