What is average lenght of DVC ownership

[DVC Dude]

We know that DVC is a 50 year RTU (right to use) contract that eventually will expire and we know that DVC started in 1991 and the early contract resorts will begin to expire in 2042.

We also know that people are fickle and 50 years is a long time (the average person moves homes around every 7 years).

My question is - What is the average length of time for DVC ownership?

I am sure some people will keep it until the end (or will it to their relatives) and some people sell when financial times are hard, and some people sell when a divorce happens (up to 50% in US).

If I had to GUESS - my guess will be an average ownership of 20 years.

Is there any data with just OKW as that would be the oldest resort.

 

[disneynutz]

My guess it that it is less, just take a look at all of the resales each year.

Bill

 

[com_op_2000]

I am at the 20 year mark as of this past June. I will never sell my DVC. My DD has a standing offer to take over my contracts, if DW and I decide we no longer want them. I would just add her to the title and let her make her own reservations. Our third contract already has her name on it, she just does not use it.
As far a averages go for OKW, I would guess an average would be @10-12 years.
Most OKW owners bought in before 2000, then resales since then would bring the original owners average down.

 

[Deb & Bill]

We bought our first OKW contract in 1997, second in 1999 and third in 2000. We sold the 2000 contract at a profit. We also bought VWL in 2001 and BCV in 2002 and sold BCV at a profit.

 

[Nabas]

Remember that SSR (2004), AKV (2006), and BLT (2009) more than doubled the number of DVC rooms.

Considering how new these resorts are and many of these already have appeared on the resale market, the current median length of current ownership is must be under 10 years and possibly under 5 years.

Don't forget that all timeshares, DVC included, tend to be impulse purchases. After a few years, I suspect the luster begins to fade for most while, each year, the cost becomes more difficult to justify, especially after 3 or 4 trips.

Many of us might be life-long WDW fans but I suspect most DVC purchasers are not.

 

[Annielkd22222]

I am hopefully selling mine now....and I've only had it three years. Things change.....situations change....and times change.

 

[DVC Dude]

Let's not forget that there are at least 350,000 memberships and probably 500,000+ contracts sold (heck DVC Mike is probably responsible for 0.0002% of all sales from Disney) so the TINY amount of resale contracts we see are still very small vs the total sales.

That is why I think 20 years is AVERAGE as some will hold all 50 years, some will sell in 5 years, and most will sell in the 15-20 year range.

 

[Minniesgal]

I suspect we could probably produce a bell curve,.

 

[dmunsil]

My question is - What is the average length of time for DVC ownership?

I am sure some people will keep it until the end (or will it to their relatives) and some people sell when financial times are hard, and some people sell when a divorce happens (up to 50% in US).

If I had to GUESS - my guess will be an average ownership of 20 years.

Is there any data with just OKW as that would be the oldest resort.

We can get some info from searches on the OC Comptroller's web site.

The total number of original deeds sold since opening at OKW is 39,346.

The total number of third-party sales at OKW since opening has to be estimated, because you can't tell the difference between gratuitous and non-gratuitous transfers prior to Jun. 2008. But since 2008, those transfers were half sales and half gratuitous, and the total of all transfers was 8,856, so I'd estimate the total sales at 4,428.

The total number of foreclosures and ROFR exercise is hard to tell, because there are so many 2057 extension quitclaim deeds mixed in there, but I estimate it at no more than 2,000, since there were 1,159 through Feb. 2008, when the 2057 extension deeds started being recorded. So it seems unlikely that there were more than 850 from Feb 2008 to today.

Those don't tell you the exact number of current resale vs direct owners, but it does give some rough idea of about 85-90% original owners.

Given all that, I would guess that 20 year average ownership is probably way too low. People like their DVC.

 

[JimMIA]

This is just a guess, but I would bet there has been a MUCH higher level of both resales and foreclosures at SSR and AKV.

I say that for two reasons. One is that I remember some stats about sales at those resorts being overwhelmingly financed (something like 75-80% financed). The other reason is the economic environment following the peak sales of those resorts was very bleak. That seems to me to be a formula for trouble, and a lot of the distressed seller stories I've read have involved those two resorts.

With OKW, I think you probably had a lot more stable ownership base, much less financing, and a better economic picture for most of the period of ownership.

 

[disneynutz]

People tend to hang on to things that they should have gotten rid of. We have a storage locker that we have kept crap in for a couple of years since our last move.

During our Disney stays we met a couple of OKW owners that don't use their points, they just pay their dues. They say things like, "maybe next year we will vacation at Disney" and "renting seems like too much trouble".

Bill

 

[lovin'fl]

I wonder how many folks let their points go unused each year. I bet it's a startling number.

 

[JimMIA]

I wonder how many folks let there points go unused each year. I bet it's a startling number.

You are probably right. Every timeshare system sort of counts on some degree of non-use, and the numbers for all of them are probably eye-popping.

 

[dmunsil]

I just updated my post to correct an error on third-party sales. I keep forgetting that they don't have the deed doc tax in the OC Comptroller index prior to 6/2008, when they started including it. So any search that includes a deed doc tax term only searches from then on.

So we can get an exact number of third-party transfers, but we have to estimate the number that are sales. The rest are "gratuitous" transfers - name changes, inheritance, gifts, etc. (The reason the Deed Doc Tax matters is that gratuitous transfers have the minimum tax of $0.70, whereas the sales all have a higher tax because money changed hands.)

Since 2008, there were 1909 sales at OKW and 1948 gratuitous transfers. So I feel comfortable saying that in general the deed transfers for OKW are about 50% sales and 50% gratuitous. And for all of OKW history, there have been 8,856 total transfers of all kinds. So the estimate for sales is 4,428.

That makes this the summary for OKW:

OKW:
Direct Sales: 39,346
Third Party Sales: 4,428 (est.)
Foreclosure/ROFR: 2,000 (est.)
Percent Original Owners: 88% (approx.)


Here are the numbers for SSR and AKV. For them, the deed transfers we can track show as only 30% gratuitous, so I used that to do the estimates.

SSR:
Direct Sales: 88,382
Third Party Sales: 5,350 (est.)
Foreclosure/ROFR: 5,358
Percent Original Owners: 94% (approx.)

AKV:
Direct Sales: 44,964
Third Party Sales: 1,280 (est.)
Foreclosure/ROFR: 2,353
Percent Original Owners: 97% (approx.)

 

[AnnaS]

Have owned for 13 years. Definitely do not see us selling anytime in the future. Of course - will never say never and family emergencies (medical, financial) can happen anytime to all of us.

I have also met and know many DVC families here (where I live) and I know of two who do not use it every year. They also just pay their dues and go when they feel/can go. Just like owning a second home on the shore, the mountains. You take care of it, pay the expenses and go whenever you can/want.

 

[csharpwv]

I can't imagine the mental cost for me of knowing that I paid thousands of dollars in fees and received nothing in return! It's so crazy to won a timeshare and not use it or make an effort to rent your points... for SOME return - or giving my points away in the form of free use for a friend or family member.

We use every single point, every single year. It's not easy, but Disney for us is a necessary break from the world of work, life, and obligations.

I really like that our only obligations while at Disney are Dining Reservations! HAHA

We have added on over the last few years, but haven't sold.
It is likely that we will sell one or more of our contracts in the future in favor of buying points at a new resort. But that's not in the plan in the near future.

I know we will never sell our HHI points!

 

[dmunsil]

OK, perhaps this is too math-nerdy, but I think my calculation of what percentage of members are "original owners" is too low, for a couple of reasons, one big, one small.

• The big reason: I calculated the percentage as (1 - (resales + foreclose) / direct). That's not right, because the foreclosures get resold. Thus the total number of owned contracts is (direct - foreclose), so to a first approximation the calculation should be (1 - (resales / (direct - foreclose)).
• The smaller reason: Not all of the resales are sold by the original seller. Some of them are on their second or third owner already, especially for OKW. I'm doing an analysis of a month of OKW sales to figure out how many sales are by the original owner. It's clear it's a majority original owners, but I'm not sure how much of a majority. For now I'm going to leave it alone, but folks should be aware that the 2nd/3rd owner sales just increase the percentage of original owners that still have their original deed. So the numbers below are probably slightly too low, maybe by a point or two.

Ultimately I was kind of surprised how few people really sell or lose their DVC ownership. Even after 20 years, almost 90% of OKW owners are still owners. Fascinating. It certainly helps explain why resales are such a small fraction of direct sales - most people aren't interested in selling.

So here are the adjusted percentages:

OKW:
Percent Original Owners: 88% (approx.)

SSR:
Percent Original Owners: 94% (approx.)

AKV:
Percent Original Owners: 97% (approx.)

 

[dallastxcpa]

Have owned for 13 years. Definitely do not see us selling anytime in the future. Of course - will never say never and family emergencies (medical, financial) can happen anytime to all of us.

I have also met and know many DVC families here (where I live) and I know of two who do not use it every year. They also just pay their dues and go when they feel/can go. Just like owning a second home on the shore, the mountains. You take care of it, pay the expenses and go whenever you can/want.

We are coming up on 10 years as owners of SSR. When we bought we had the option of BWV or SSR. I am very happy with SSR and plan to keep the contract for its life.

It just blows me away that there are people who let their points go to waste. Even if you can't make it to Disney there are so many options available if you just trade through RCI. One of my favorites is New Orleans.

 

[DVC Dude]

So here are the adjusted percentages:

OKW:
Percent Original Owners: 88% (approx.)

SSR:
Percent Original Owners: 94% (approx.)

AKV:
Percent Original Owners: 97% (approx.)

This is simply amazing data. Thanks for compiling that and I too am surprised at how few contracts are sold.

I would guess that this is one of the highest percentage of original owner timeshares on the market.

I originally bought VWL way back in 2001 or so and sold them in 2005 (for a profit) and then bought SSR (because I was never using the 11 month window and wanted lower annual dues and longer RTU). I also bought BLT when they had a great promotion.

 

[bwvBound]

This is simply amazing data. Thanks for compiling that and I too am surprised at how few contracts are sold.

I would guess that this is one of the highest percentage of original owner timeshares on the market.

Ditto! Thanks, dmunsil!

OP:
FWIW, are are nearing 10 years with SSR as our only DVC ownership with no near term plans to sell.