What happened while I wasn't paying attention?! WHAT has happened to airfares?!!

We live in Rochester and are looking to go in October this year. We have gone in October the last couple years. This year from MSP the tickets are close to $500, last year the same time we paid under $200/person. It is ridiculous! :) I check every day, but have not seen it go below $400.....Good Luck!
 
The price of crude oil has more then quadrupled in the last 10 years. The airfare you listed didn't even triple.

Thanks, that is really informative...

I wasn't complaining about the rates, I was simply saying you can't assume you'll get the same rates you paid in the past. But again thanks for feeling like you needed to respond and point out what you think I hadn't thought about.
 
Thanks, that is really informative...

I wasn't complaining about the rates, I was simply saying you can't assume you'll get the same rates you paid in the past. But again thanks for feeling like you needed to respond and point out what you think I hadn't thought about.

This is a public board. Replies aren't posted exclusively for the person who posted.

There are many posters who don't seem to understand why the rates are higher then they'd like to pay. They think the problem is with the airlines. Some think airlines are "greedy". Some think the airlines could work some magic and lower costs. The "magic" is airlines realizing lowering capacity to destinations like Orlando might allow them to offer profitable fares to passengers willing to pay said fare.

I have no idea if you considered the price of fuel. There was nothing in your post which suggested you did. Nothing to suggest you didn't.

Past threads on airline fares suggests many posters don't make the connection. The OP asked what happened while I wasn't paying attention. The answer is the price of crude oil, and jet fuel, went up. Business fliers aren't as willing to pay the kind of price premium which allowed airlines to offer unprofitable fares to leisure fliers.

I could mimic your sarcastic posting style and ask why you didn't answer the OPs question. I know my point answers the OPs question. I don't know (or care) if you didn't know about, didn't think about it or just decided not to bother giving a direct answer.
 
We are trying to plan a trip to MN this summer to see the families but we can't book it yet until we know that my high schooler doesn't have to go to summer school. We won't know until the beginning of June if he passed World History.

We also need to know when that darn July drivers ed class is so we can get him into drivers education this summer. I called the place but they don't have their summer schedules done yet. Grrrrrr.

I keep watching the airfares go up and up and there's not a darn thing I can do about it yet. I keep hoping the cost of fuel will go down so the flights will get cheaper but I know that's a dream. Oh and I'll be flying into MSP from ATL.
 

We are flying SYR to MCO August 25 to September 2 on United for $249. I booked it about a month ago. It is our Christmas flights that are scary! The cheapest I have found for December/January is $608.:scared1:

Even to fly out of ROC or BUF is really, really expensive right now. SYR used to be the expensive one, but the other two are just as bad or worse.

Yes, the fares we are seeing here in Upstate NY are triple of what they were a year ago.

Great price :thumbsup2 . Our flights are via JetBlue. Never thought about checking United.....are your flights direct? Thought JetBlue is our airline of choice if at all possible (we love the spacious seating, free checked baggage, free snacks, free seat selection), however if prices keep increasing like they have been lately, we may have to consider "the competition".
 
Plus there are a couple of other factors: inflation and new airlines.

Few things are truly the same price as they were a decade (or more) ago, and this is simply due to the standard rate of inflation. Every organization (company, government, non-profit, etc) takes the Consumer Price Index into account when forecasting and budgeting for subsequent years, and this index has been roughly around 3% every year for the past couple of decades (fluctuated a bit since 2008). Most companies bake this into their pricing strategies, thus it causes the price to increase each year.

This is ok, though, since, in general, many wages are also adjusted to account for the higher cost of living (COLA). That raise we get usually isn't a raise; rather, simply an adjustment to make our wages equal to cost of products/services on the market. As such, prices may increase, but many times, the ratio of price/income is (hopefully) relatively normalized.

The second (and I maintain the most prominent) factor that caused the precipitous drop in airfares during the last 10-20 years was the introduction of new players in the airline market. When a competitor enters, their primary goal is to generate market share instead of profits, especially in the first five years. Once the business has a loyal following, profits will come.

Southwest is credited as the main driver of lowering legacy airline prices, as they had a business model with no hubs, operating out of smaller regional airports and they pre-purchased fuel. This enabled them to significantly undercut their competitors' pricing and generated a lot of market share. A fact that SWA is now capitalizing on, despite their pricing now equaling or exceeding the legacy airline options for many markets.

In addition to Southwest, the airline industry saw the introduction of AirTran, Frontier, Midwest, Spirit, Direct, and Alliegence, just to name a few of the more recognizable companies. With the market flooded by "low-cost" competition, the cost of airfare dropped significantly.

However, there was an unintended consequence, as quality also dropped. To offer low prices and remain viable, the "low cost" airlines also removed amenities and customer service took a hit. The airline industry shifted from a well liked industry with a high reputation for service (and maybe a bit of adventure) to one of mass transit. Instead of being a high priced service most people would not be able to afford to use frequently (much like our beloved Disney, BTW), it became and industry focused on moving the most number of people for cut rates. In turn, many Americans began to feel they were entitled to fly and the airlines should keep prices low to ensure even the lower income among us were able to use the service at their leisure. Thus, the thread's title.

Personally, I remember the days when $300-$500 airline ticket was the norm, at the inflation of 20-40 years ago, and most people drove to their destination as flying was that special thing people did rarely (and on special occasion). I just hope that when prices increase and the industry normalizes back to the way it was, which it seems to be doing now, that the amenities will return to make flying special again. The competition of the "low cost" airlines did a lot of damage to the quality of the product, in my opinion.

In summary, what happened was that airfares are returning to their norms, as the uber-low cost model seen in the past decade was never sustainable; rather, it was a measure to gain market share. With fewer new competitors and the successful "upstarts" achieving legacy status, there isn't as much incentive for the airline industry to slash pricing below market value and scrape by in lieu of making a profit.
 
A bit late for this now, but the US Airways Mastercard's companion pass benefit should be enough to entice most families to get the card. First passenger is regular price and the next 2 passengers are $99 each.

That sounds good. Almost too good.

Is there limited availability? If they tell me I can book flights for two companions for $99 but they say "sorry, the flights you want are not bookable with that offer", or "you have to buy a seat at double the price to get that offer", then it wouldn't work out so well. If there are three empty seats on the plane and I pay for one at the regular fare (not a hiked up fare because I want a companion) and my companions get seats for $99 each then that is a great deal.

Edit:
Alaska Airlines has a Visa card that gives you a $99 (plus a few extra in taxes and fees) companion fare discount code every year ($75 annual fee for the card IIRC) and that code is usable on any fare on Alaska Airlines, even first class. The higher the price of the one person fare the more you save. No blackouts, no nothing. It's the real deal. Their routes are mostly west coast based so it wouldn't work well for many folks not on the west coast to go to Orlando, but East coast to Hawaii in First Class is a great use for this.
 
Great price :thumbsup2 . Our flights are via JetBlue. Never thought about checking United.....are your flights direct? Thought JetBlue is our airline of choice if at all possible (we love the spacious seating, free checked baggage, free snacks, free seat selection), however if prices keep increasing like they have been lately, we may have to consider "the competition".

No, sadly, they are not direct flights. JetBlue was waaay out of my price zone for our dates. They are definitely our airline of choice too, but at the price we were looking at it wasn't even a consideration.

Unfortunately, out of SYR Jetblue is the only nonstop flight. ROC only has AirTran for non-stop now as Jetblue only does connections ROC to MCO. It's getting harder and harder to get non-stop flights. Then again, I remember when there was never a choice for non-stop out of Upstate NY.

If things don't go down for Christmas we'll be :drive: and that is :scared1: with two kids!
 
Thanks for your many replies on this matter. Great discussion.

As an aside, I do indeed typically search these fares MUCH MUCH earlier. However, we were taking advantage of a last-minute cruise deal--thus our options were limited.

It looks like we'll have to take the Allegiant route out of GFX. It will save...even AFTER factoring in the SFB to WDW transportation expense..AT LEAST $600. Downside is we will have to spend an extra two nights in Orlando after the cruise. Darn the luck :)
 
Thanks for your many replies on this matter. Great discussion.

As an aside, I do indeed typically search these fares MUCH MUCH earlier. However, we were taking advantage of a last-minute cruise deal--thus our options were limited.

It looks like we'll have to take the Allegiant route out of GFX. It will save...even AFTER factoring in the SFB to WDW transportation expense..AT LEAST $600. Downside is we will have to spend an extra two nights in Orlando after the cruise. Darn the luck :)

Have a great trip!
 
That sounds good. Almost too good.

Is there limited availability? If they tell me I can book flights for two companions for $99 but they say "sorry, the flights you want are not bookable with that offer", or "you have to buy a seat at double the price to get that offer", then it wouldn't work out so well. If there are three empty seats on the plane and I pay for one at the regular fare (not a hiked up fare because I want a companion) and my companions get seats for $99 each then that is a great deal.

Edit:
Alaska Airlines has a Visa card that gives you a $99 (plus a few extra in taxes and fees) companion fare discount code every year ($75 annual fee for the card IIRC) and that code is usable on any fare on Alaska Airlines, even first class. The higher the price of the one person fare the more you save. No blackouts, no nothing. It's the real deal. Their routes are mostly west coast based so it wouldn't work well for many folks not on the west coast to go to Orlando, but East coast to Hawaii in First Class is a great use for this.

From the website:

Companion Certificate: For the $89 Annual Fee MasterCard, the Primary Cardmember is eligible to receive one companion certificate valid for two $99 companion tickets. For the $49 Annual Fee MasterCard, the Primary Cardmember is eligible to receive one $149 companion ticket each year. Your first certificate will be sent to you 6 to 8 weeks after the Account has been used for at least one purchase and your Annual Fee has been paid. Each year thereafter, you will receive your companion certificate 6 to 8 weeks after your account opening anniversary and after the annual fee has been paid. The companion certificate is valid for round-trip coach class travel within and between the contiguous U.S. and Canada when the Primary Cardmember purchases a qualifying ticket (minimum fare purchase of $250 required). Additional taxes, fees and charges including (PFCs), Federal Excise Taxes, Canadian VAT/GST and customs/immigration charges as well as the September 11 Security Fee apply to all tickets purchased and are not included in the base fare. Other companion certificates restrictions apply including advance purchase requirements and black-out dates and will be provided on the actual certificate.
 
That sounds good. Almost too good.

Is there limited availability? If they tell me I can book flights for two companions for $99 but they say "sorry, the flights you want are not bookable with that offer", or "you have to buy a seat at double the price to get that offer", then it wouldn't work out so well. If there are three empty seats on the plane and I pay for one at the regular fare (not a hiked up fare because I want a companion) and my companions get seats for $99 each then that is a great deal.

Edit:
Alaska Airlines has a Visa card that gives you a $99 (plus a few extra in taxes and fees) companion fare discount code every year ($75 annual fee for the card IIRC) and that code is usable on any fare on Alaska Airlines, even first class. The higher the price of the one person fare the more you save. No blackouts, no nothing. It's the real deal. Their routes are mostly west coast based so it wouldn't work well for many folks not on the west coast to go to Orlando, but East coast to Hawaii in First Class is a great use for this.

The Alaska one is better, but the US Airways one is still good. There are some blackout dates and it is only valid on coach fares. The first ticket must cost at least $250 (they can put you in a higher fare class to meet this requirement), but there is no maximum. The Alaska one only allows one companion while the US one allows two companions.
 
Drive must cheaper

I've priced flights several months out to get a general idea for next year's trip. And even if we flew in Sept, after Labor Day, it's still nearly $500 per person RT.

So driving is definitely cheaper for the 5 of us. We've never driven to WDW before and it will be a long one, but car trips don't bother us. We will split the 20 hour drive into 2 days. But hotel, gasoline and food for the RT is still less than half the cost of flying for us.

I'm going to watch the airfares when they come out for our trip time next year, but I doubt we will see any deals. Guess my sis and I will have fun torturing the kids with 80s music :)
 
Thanks for your many replies on this matter. Great discussion.

As an aside, I do indeed typically search these fares MUCH MUCH earlier. However, we were taking advantage of a last-minute cruise deal--thus our options were limited.

It looks like we'll have to take the Allegiant route out of GFX. It will save...even AFTER factoring in the SFB to WDW transportation expense..AT LEAST $600. Downside is we will have to spend an extra two nights in Orlando after the cruise. Darn the luck :)

Sounds like you are one of the lucky ones who were able to take advantage of the discount offered to DVC members for June sailings on the Fantasy! If so, congratulations and hope the savings on the cruise help just a little to make up for the higher June airfares.

Have a great time and hope to see a trip report when you return!
 














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