What happened to DVC resale prices during the last two recessions (i.e. 2001, 2008)?

[RAL710]

I am a relatively new DVC member (2016/17) so I don’t know a lot about it’s history. During the last 4 years We’ve just seen resale prices go up. Just curious if the prices were flat or even decreased during times of economic hardship

 

[drusba]

In 2001, there did not appear to be any real fall in resale prices from what one could see. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions because online sales were still something in its early stages. As to what could be determined, it was a time when online resale prices for resorts were not significantly lower than buying new when you factored in incentives offered. Incentives at the time were varying dollars off the asking price, with more off for HH and VB than the WDW resorts. Though resale prices were somewhat lower, it was sometimes the situation that buying new was actually close to the same cost or even less than buying resale when the deals were compared and you took into account the offered incentives to new purchasers and that DVD covered all closing costs at the time.

It was a much different situation when the Great Recession came. Resale prices were lower than buying new to begin with, and then they fell substantially and then continued to fall until 2011, when it reached bottom, at which time prices were in 50s for SSR and OKW, and sometimes even the 40s, and other resorts in the 60s, and even sometimes the 50s for BRV or BWV. Recovery started thereafter.

 

[krains4]

I wonder what Direct looked like if resale was that low...

 

[drusba]

I wonder what Direct looked like if resale was that low...

If you mean for the Great Recession time, DVD just ignored it and instead, starting in 2010 began a process of constantly increasing new sale prices far beyond anything that would be dictated by the state of the economy. BLT went on sale in Sep 2008 at $112 a point. A year later it was raised to $120. By late 2010, it was nearly sold out and on the horizon was a future new resort, VGF. In Dec 2010, BLT was raised to $130, In June 2011, it went to $140, two months later in Aug 2011 to $150, and six months later in Feb 2012, it went to $155, $160 in April, and $165 in July 2012. In essence, seven increases totaling close to a 40% price increase in about 1/1/2 years despite the resort being sold out.

VGF went on sale in first half of 2013, first at $145 a point for a short while to members and then raised to $150 points. Its average points per week were also 25% higher than BLT, so the effective real price increase for VGF from late 2010 to 2013 over BLT after BLT was essentially sold out was about 50%, but the $165 2013 price for BLT allowed DVD to promote VGF as being at a bargain price in comparison. VGF thus went on sale at its very high "bargain" price, resulting in the percentage of those new purchasers who could afford only enough points to get studios to be significantly more than what had ever existed for the pre-VGF WDW resorts, with the result that studios became difficult to reserve even at times at 11-months out. Since 2010, the price of all DVC resorts has increased by a large percentage despite low inflation and the non-existent to slow national wage increases during that time, so that now in 2020, the increase over what their prices were in 2010 for some of the resorts, like BLT, BCV, and BWV, is well in excess of 100%.

 

[CarolynFH]

I wonder what Direct looked like if resale was that low...

If you mean for the Great Recession time, DVD just ignored it and instead, starting in 2010 began a process of constantly increasing new sale prices far beyond anything that would be dictated by the state of the economy. BLT went on sale in Sep 2008 at $112 a point. A year later it was raised to $120. By late 2010, it was nearly sold out and on the horizon was a future new resort, VGF. In Dec 2010, BLT was raised to $130, In June 2011, it went to $140, two months later in Aug 2011 to $150, and six months later in Feb 2012, it went to $155, $160 in April, and $165 in July 2012. In essence, seven increases totaling close to a 40% price increase in about 1/1/2 years despite the resort being sold out.

VGF went on sale in first half of 2013, first at $145 a point for a short while to members and then raised to $150 points. Its average points per week were also 25% higher than BLT, so the effective real price increase for VGF from late 2010 to 2013 over BLT after BLT was essentially sold out was about 50%, but the $165 2013 price for BLT allowed DVD to promote VGF as being at a bargain price in comparison. VGF thus went on sale at its very high "bargain" price, resulting in the percentage of those new purchasers who could afford only enough points to get studios to be significantly more than what had ever existed for the pre-VGF WDW resorts, with the result that studios became difficult to reserve even at times at 11-months out. Since 2010, the price of all DVC resorts has increased by a large percentage despite low inflation and the non-existent to slow national wage increases during that time, so that now in 2020, the increase over what their prices were in 2010 for some of the resorts, like BLT, BCV, and BWV, is well in excess of 100%.

One addendum to his detailed history: there were times during the recession when Disney offered amazing incentives in order to sell points at those prices. I’ve read that some BLT owners cruised on DCL at DVD‘s expense.

 

[CarolMN]

One addendum to his detailed history: there were times during the recession when Disney offered amazing incentives in order to sell points at those prices. I’ve read that some BLT owners cruised on DCL at DVD‘s expense.

They never reduced the price, just increased incentives if sales weren't meeting their expectations.

 

[bookwormde]

As a reference point after the 2008 "great recession" I bought OKW for $45/pt

 

[cvjw]

We bought all our points in 2008 - 2009. We were brand new to dvc, so we didn’t search for the cheapest contracts. We just bought what we wanted. We purchased BCV, BWV and VWL in the $70 range per point. We purchased OKW and SSR for $65 per point.

 

[krains4]

As a reference point after the 2008 "great recession" I bought OKW for $45/pt

We bought all our points in 2008 - 2009. We were brand new to dvc, so we didn’t search for the cheapest contracts. We just bought what we wanted. We purchased BCV, BWV and VWL in the $70 range per point. We purchased OKW and SSR for $65 per point.

Those numbers are insane. Especially considering RIV is 2 and half times the cost. Wow.

 

[a742246]

In the 2008 we purchased a BWV contract for $79 a point. In 2011 we purchased a fully loaded BWV contract for $57.00 a point with free banked points. That should give you an idea what a recession could do.

 

[sethschroeder]

That should give you an idea what a recession could do.

I mean I think we need to put it in context. Its not just what a recession can do, it was that recession did. There is a reason its called the "Great Recession" and not the late 2000's or 2007 recession.

From what I remember it was the longest since the Great Depression, the largest GDP % wise since WW2, and was the largest in total dollar value in history. You also need to remember that it was multiplied in magnitude by all of the terrible loans that were out there. Again going based on what I remember/read, I am not however a financial expert.

 

[a742246]

I mean I think we need to put it in context. Its not just what a recession can do, it was that recession did. There is a reason its called the "Great Recession" and not the late 2000's or 2007 recession.

From what I remember it was the longest since the Great Depression, the largest GDP % wise since WW2, and was the largest in total dollar value in history. You also need to remember that it was multiplied in magnitude by all of the terrible loans that were out there. Again going based on what I remember/read, I am not however a financial expert.

That is why I said it "could" happen and the next recession could be either mild or severe (hopefully not).
My PP was to show the price of a resale DVC from before the recession to its recovery.