What does DVC look like in 2042?

[jshadd]

Contracts for Beach Club, Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge, Old Key West (at least some contracts), Vero Beach, and Hilton Head will end in 2042. These resorts make up 20.5 million points or 26% of total points today. New resorts will be built to replace or refurb, but will Riviera resale restrictions change the way we use DVC? Curious what everyone thinks about how DVC looks like in the future?

 

[chalee94]

"DVC 2.0" theory & 2042 | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

As in the above link, this has already been discussed a lot.

My guess is that VB will be spun off and will no longer be in the DVC system, HHI might be spun off also, BCV and Boulder Ridge are smaller resorts that will be likely be quickly resold and Boardwalk can be rented by Disney for cash until they are ready to offer BWV 2.0 for sale. OKW is extended under the old rules until 2057 - it's just that Disney will most likely own more than half the resort at 2042.

For resorts that are quickly resold as new contracts, yes, they would most likely be subject to Riviera restrictions (depending a ton on what other changes come along in the next 20 years).

Here are more links for reading:

DVC Resorts Expiring 2042 | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

Speculation for plans for 2042 expirations | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Florida will be falling into the ocean anyway.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

Since the contracts expire 1/31/42. My use year is March. Will my last points be in 2041? Can I borrow the 2042 points? How do 2040-2042 play out? Couldn't find anything on this.

 

[chalee94]

Since the contracts expire 1/31/42. My use year is March. Will my last points be in 2041? Can I borrow the 2042 points? How do 2040-2042 play out? Couldn't find anything on this.

1) No Jan UYs, so everyone's last pts will be in 2041.

2) Maybe. As they have done a little already this year, DVC has the right to suspend banking and borrowing. It's true that you may not be able to borrow pts after 2040 or so - we don't know but it's very possible.

3) No DVC resort has ever expired, so we can speculate and project but we don't know how 2040 and such will play out. There will be a glut of pts trying to squeeze into limited villas. Climate change may make it all moot. We will see.

 

[jshadd]

"DVC 2.0" theory & 2042 | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

As in the above link, this has already been discussed a lot.

My guess is that VB will be spun off and will no longer be in the DVC system, HHI might be spun off also, BCV and Boulder Ridge are smaller resorts that will be likely be quickly resold and Boardwalk can be rented by Disney for cash until they are ready to offer BWV 2.0 for sale. OKW is extended under the old rules until 2057 - it's just that Disney will most likely own more than half the resort at 2042.

For resorts that are quickly resold as new contracts, yes, they would most likely be subject to Riviera restrictions (depending a ton on what other changes come along in the next 20 years).

Here are more links for reading:

DVC Resorts Expiring 2042 | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

Speculation for plans for 2042 expirations | The DIS Disney Discussion Forums - DISboards.com

Thanks so much, I'll enjoy reading this information

 

[bookwormde]

There has been lots of speculation, but nobody including Disney likely knows yet.

What we do know is that cash can not absorb this level of new deluxe rooms and selling that many points will take close to decade even if they were to stop building new DVCs which seams unlikely.

If Disney moves some offices to Orlando I could see Vero becoming a corporate retreat paid for by selling high end guest experiences (cash or club33)

HH is a good question tough if all else fails they can make it the reduced price resort.

 

[Evita_W]

I think they may build new resorts and sell these off as condos for people who would love to live at Disney. Obviously there would need to be some remodeling to deal with the studios, at least to find a way to add some sort of range and possibly a dishwasher. These could even be sold fully furnished or unfurnished....not sure which route they would go.

 

[bookwormde]

I think they may build new resorts and sell these off as condos for people who would love to live at Disney. Obviously there would need to be some remodeling to deal with the studios, at least to find a way to add some sort of range and possibly a dishwasher. These could even be sold fully furnished or unfurnished....not sure which route they would go.

They can not let people live at WDW if they did they would have a vote

 

[chalee94]

They can not let people live at WDW if they did they would have a vote

Yep. While they were both a part of Walt's original purchased land, there's a reason why Disney sold the property for Celebration and Golden Oak before they had residents living there...

Disney World sells 100 acres in Florida - Chicago Tribune

Normally, when Disney sells land that is governed by Reedy Creek the company asks the agency to de-annex the land so that any new landowners would not share the district's services and would not have any votes in Reedy Creek affairs...

 

[Sandisw]

I will speculate...it’s fun. I bet they remove both VB and HH from BVTC a few years before so no trading in or out. Owners will have to stay there...limits to banking and borrowing. Sold off and not return.

BRV will be given an extension to expire with CCV,. BCV and BWV, could be removed from BVTC, but at the very least, limits to banking and borrowing for 3 years or more prior to expiration.

BCV and BWV will be the first to be resold as new with shiny new point charts to match.

And, all new DVC resorts from now on will be restricted like RIV when sold resale.

 

[chalee94]

BRV will be given an extension to expire with CCV.

Just to be clear, are you voting for an actual extension of the current ground lease or just a shorter new contract with the updated terms?

 

[Sandisw]

Just to be clear, are you voting for an actual extension of the current ground lease or just a shorter new contract with the updated terms?

I am guessing that this is the only 2042 resort that could get offered the extension of the ground lease to match CCV so both of them expire at the same time, It would have the same point charts as it does now.

ETA: The other option is the rooms are added to the CCV condo association and new points sold under that..similar to what they did with the treehouses.

 

[LAX]

I will speculate...it’s fun. I bet they remove both VB and HH from BVTC a few years before so no trading in or out. Owners will have to stay there...limits to banking and borrowing. Sold off and not return.

BRV will be given an extension to expire with CCV,. BCV and BWV, could be removed from BVTC, but at the very least, limits to banking and borrowing for 3 years or more prior to expiration.

BCV and BWV will be the first to be resold as new with shiny new point charts to match.

And, all new DVC resorts from now on will be restricted like RIV when sold resale.

Interesting speculation on VBR & HHI, but can owners there be excluded from "trading" prior to the contract expiration date? Does the contract allow any DVC resort to be removed from the system and excluded from trading at any time?

LAX

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting speculation on VBR & HHI, but can owners there be excluded from "trading" prior to the contract expiration date? Does the contract allow any DVC resort to be removed from the system and excluded from trading at any time?

LAX

BVTC can remove a resort at anytime and once removed, it is no longer part of the club, which means no trading to other DVC resorts any more. This would be all owners...not direct vs resale...and of course, if the resort isn’t there, no one can’t trade in either.

We get the trading by virtue of being part of that. The POS only gives you the right to your home resort.

 

[LAX]

BVTC can remove a resort at anytime and once removed, it is no longer part of the club, which means no trading to other DVC resorts any more. This would be all owners...not direct vs resale...and of course, if the resort isn’t there, no one can’t trade in either.

We get the trading by virtue of being part of that. The POS only gives you the right to your home resort.

Wow! I honestly didn't realize that. Doesn't this give the advice "buy where you want to stay" a totally different perspective? I wonder how many people who bought SSR to stay else where actually realize this can happen.

LAX

 

[CraigInPA]

I believe, by the time 2042 rolls around, OKW will mostly be extended contracts, and we'll still have 9 of the "original 13" remaining.

 

[chalee94]

I believe, by the time 2042 rolls around, OKW will mostly be extended contracts, and we'll still have 9 of the "original 13" remaining.

They'd better step it up then. Over the last 10 years, they have apparently sold 550,000 (about 5% of OKW's total) direct points to reach about 2 million points of a possible total of 7.7 million having been extended to 2057.

Based on dvcnews' analysis, they could sell twice as many direct OKW points per year as they have for the last decade until 2042 and still barely get half of OKW extended...

Adoption Rate of Old Key West 15-Year Contract Extension - DVCNews.com - The essential Disney Vacation Club resource!

From August 30, to November 1, 2019, Disney filed 8,517 Old Key West “extension” deeds with the Orange County Comptroller for those owners who chose to extend. These extension deeds contained 1,468,764 points, or about 19.1% of Old Key West’s total points.

...Although only 19.1% of Old Key West’s points were extended by the public since the initial offering in 2007, the percentage of points owned by the general public with the extended 2057 expiration date has continued to increase every year since then. All Old Key West deeds sold by Disney since September 2007 have the later expiration date. In addition, whenever Disney reacquires an Old Key West deed with the original 2042 expiration date via foreclosure proceedings or by exercising its right of first refusal on resale transactions, it resells the points with the later 2057 expiration date.

Dating back to March 2010, Disney has sold more than 550,000 Old Key West points with the 2057 ending date. Combined with the 1.48 million points voluntarily extended, more than 2 million points owned by the public now have the January 2057 contract end date. This total represents more than 1/4 of the 7.7 million points which make up Disney's Old Key West Resort.

 

[Sandisw]

Wow! I honestly didn't realize that. Doesn't this give the advice "buy where you want to stay" a totally different perspective? I wonder how many people who bought SSR to stay else where actually realize this can happen.

LAX

Yes, it certainly does. Obviously, it isn’t high on the list of things to be done because it does change the nature of the program, and as new resorts enter BVTC, like RIV, new rules can apply.

But, it’s one do those things about DVC that potential buyers should understand. I did and still bought 500 SSR to use to trade out. Worst case, if SSR was removed, then those points simply become my points to use when I want to visit Florida vs. purchasing an offsite condo...which is still something being considered!

It’s why I bought RIV and BLT...those are my resorts that if stuck there, it meets my needs,

However, as we get closer to 2042, I could see VB and HH being removed so those points are no longer being used at WDW if the plan is to no longer have them as part of DVC.

 

[bookwormde]

BVTC can remove a resort at anytime and once removed, it is no longer part of the club, which means no trading to other DVC resorts any more. This would be all owners...not direct vs resale...and of course, if the resort isn’t there, no one can’t trade in either.

We get the trading by virtue of being part of that. The POS only gives you the right to your home resort.

While I have not had a chance to reread the area of the agreement, while true I have a slightly different take on it.

As I understood it was the entity, eg OKS SSR etc that would have to trigger it not the management company, and that it would still have to meet the statutory requirement of being in the best interest of the majority of members

With that said it is possible

You would not happen to remember what section of the POS this is in?

Thanks