Not sure if my 2006 experience is still relevant...but we had to wait/list our T-giving trip (booked in late June 2006)...started by W/L'ing for either a one-bedroom or a studio, anywhere on property...
By the time the dust settled, we had our first choice: all 8 nights (including T-giving) in an SSR studio...took til around late AUgust...the one-bedroom came through first, then the studio .... surprisingly, Thurs (T-giving) came through before Wed (the day before) did...all in all, I think that reservation changed 4-5 times between 6/20 (or so) when I started, and late August, when it finalized...
I had done a back-up cash reservation for the Wed-Thurs nights that were missing...at All Star Music...that turned out to be accidentally great, as in August my bro and nephew decided to do a T-giving trip, too, and I just turned the ASMu reservation over to them...
Maybe we're just lucky, but in 25 months of
DVC ownership, the only W/L we've done that has not come through is a switch from a BWV preferred view one-bedroom to a BWV standard view one-bedroom, during marathon weekend...and we use the W/L frequently...
Good luck...wishing you lots of pixie dust...