What are my chances? Help!

[NJ Mets fan]

I have just closed 12/23 on a resale and am waiting to get into the system so I can make a reservation for 1/23/09-1/28/09. What are my chances of being able to get a 2Br reservation for that time period assuming I am put into the system next week?? I would prefer BWV, BCV or VWL in that order. What about the accuracy of the resort availability thread? Have you found these to be accurate? According to these just about everything is available.

One of the reasons I am anxious is that airfare rates look really good right now and I want to book these ASAP. If I book w/o a reservation today, I want to make sure I am taking a calculated risk that something will be available.

Thanks for any opinions/advice you have!

 

[fluffykim]

Hi-

You should have NO issues. You are looking to go after the busiest time of the year AND after Martin Luther King holiday weekend

Thats prob why the air is so cheap.

Dont fret

If it was ME, I would book the air. You will get in to SOMETHING no worries at all

Kim

 

[drusba]

Unfortunately, you cannot assume you will get a room as very often there is nothing left that close to an arrival date. The resort availability thread has better accuracy for lack of availability than availability. Only those who visit these sites and choose to report availability are counted on that board. If they are reporting nothing is available, it is probably true. If the date is still open, you cannot assume it is available simply because the vast majority of members are not reporting anything on that board.

 

[fluffykim]

But DR..they are reporting everything is available

Again, the poster can book at ANY DVC property...I would put $ up myself if they could NOT get ONE ROOM at ANY DVC property for those days.

 

[CarolAnnC]

Our availablity threads are indicating availability at the particular time the poster happened to call MS. It should not be construed that there are rooms available for anyone at that given time frame.

That week the OP mentioned is the week prior to Superbowl - which this year is in Tampa on February 1. Many have taken a week before or after Superbowl. Also Martin Luther King Day is January 19 so this directly coincides with the week the OP is looking to reserve.

With less than a month away, I would say it will be very difficult to obtain DVC ressies on points at the DVC resorts as I believe there were also waiting lists for this time period.

Even at the regular resorts - my BIL just tried to reserve Pop Century for a week starting February 4 and it was totally sold out.

 

[fluffykim]

Good Luck either way

I guess Im covered in Tinker Bell dust, as I have 2x booked SSR as late as 1 week prior to Xmas (due to work) and had no issues, so my experience tells me that the chances of not getting a room at any DVC property after the busiest season of the year, even with the superbowl and MLK weekend, are slim to none..>I think you will be fine

I personally have never had an issue travelling to OKW, VB or SSR when I wanted to on very short notice, sometimes due to work, sometimes due to a great airfare that could not be passed up.

My opinion, I would book the airfare and take my chances. Thats just my opinion.

 

[smiller]

We too are waiting to get in the system in hopes of making a ressie Feb 1-4, 2009. Any DVC resort would be just fine!

 

[NJ Mets fan]

Unfortunately when I called they would not give me any info w/o a membership number which hopefully will come very soon. When I go online and check disney.com for those dates, they are showing availability for cash rooms for just about every disney resort as far as I can tell. I did not realize the Superbowl was in Tampa so I suppose anyone coming in early might be taking up rooms but I would think with the Superbowl being late on Sunday that most people would carry their vacation to the following week and not the week before. At least that is what I would do. Thanks for the opinions. I appreciate any realistic optimism anyone can give me!

 

[crisi]

Unfortunately when I called they would not give me any info w/o a membership number which hopefully will come very soon. When I go online and check disney.com for those dates, they are showing availability for cash rooms for just about every disney resort as far as I can tell. I did not realize the Superbowl was in Tampa so I suppose anyone coming in early might be taking up rooms but I would think with the Superbowl being late on Sunday that most people would carry their vacation to the following week and not the week before. At least that is what I would do. Thanks for the opinions. I appreciate any realistic optimism anyone can give me!

Note that cash availability and DVC availability are two different things - it can drive DVCers nuts to see cash rooms available at their resorts when their is nothing available on points - but it regularly happens. The reason is that someone is already using those rooms - but to cruise or trade outside of DVC - and DVC is selling those rooms through CRO to pay for the trade.

 

[NJ Mets fan]

Note that cash availability and DVC availability are two different things - it can drive DVCers nuts to see cash rooms available at their resorts when their is nothing available on points - but it regularly happens. The reason is that someone is already using those rooms - but to cruise or trade outside of DVC - and DVC is selling those rooms through CRO to pay for the trade.

Thanks. I definitely understand that after reading these boards for the last 3 months. The point I was making in response to one of the above posters is that if this was going to be a busy time for Disney there probably would not be so many cash rooms left. Some one made reference about not being able to get a reservation at the Pop Century and with the buy 4 get 3 deal I would think the values would be the resorts that sell out before the others. Anyway it's a moot point for me since I don't want to pay for a room, just want a DVC 2br available at any resort from Jan 23-28. I do also know the lower point times are a little more popular for DVC since they require less points which has me hesitating............

 

[CarolAnnC]

Thanks. I definitely understand that after reading these boards for the last 3 months. The point I was making in response to one of the above posters is that if this was going to be a busy time for Disney there probably would not be so many cash rooms left. Some one made reference about not being able to get a reservation at the Pop Century and with the buy 4 get 3 deal I would think the values would be the resorts that sell out before the others. Anyway it's a moot point for me since I don't want to pay for a room, just want a DVC 2br available at any resort from Jan 23-28. I do also know the lower point times are a little more popular for DVC since they require less points which has me hesitating............

You need to understand that booking DVC less than a month away is not something that is typically going to work out for you. DVC requires more planning for the most part. Not to say that it cannot happen, but it is not the norm to have availability at a late date. Especially for a week containing a national holiday and just prior to the Superbowl being held close by.

I made the reference about my brother in law trying to book Feb 4 to 11 this week and Pop Century is full. This was an illustration of the popularity of the time period, not a suggestion that you try to book a value.

We wish you luck, but you asked for responses on what your chances are, and we are giving you honest answers. May not be what you want to hear, but they are honest answers...

 

[crisi]

Thanks. I definitely understand that after reading these boards for the last 3 months. The point I was making in response to one of the above posters is that if this was going to be a busy time for Disney there probably would not be so many cash rooms left. Some one made reference about not being able to get a reservation at the Pop Century and with the buy 4 get 3 deal I would think the values would be the resorts that sell out before the others. Anyway it's a moot point for me since I don't want to pay for a room, just want a DVC 2br available at any resort from Jan 23-28. I do also know the lower point times are a little more popular for DVC since they require less points which has me hesitating............

Then the other thing you've probably gained an understanding of is that how busy the parks are or the non-DVC hotels are often has little bearing on how busy DVC is. Since DVC owners are in a "use em or loose em" situation with their points, and since DVC sold their resorts to be about 95% full year round, there aren't really "slow" DVC times - just times DVC fills up "less fast." Particularly the resorts you are targeting - its just a matter of less fast.

However, that doesn't say you have no chance - there are plenty of people who have gotten far less likely reservations than the one you are going for.

 

[scubalover]

Hello,
I was curious on this thread. So I called MS to see what is avaiable for that dates that you are looking for. There is not much, it is avdenture season, members know that it takes less points to stay. Crowds may be less, but not DVC. There is nothing at BWV,BCV,VWL,AKV,there is limited at SSR less then 10 villas and you don't have the 25.Also the same at OKW nothing on the 25th. This is the sad part about buying resale. It takes time for Disney to sign off, which means you best dates that you could have had if you have bought through Disney. With Disney your a member from one. Not always saving as much as you think go through resale, higher closing cost and the incentives Disney is offering are great.

Good Luck to you still. Hope you get chance to bring family.

 

[NJ Mets fan]

Hello,
I was curious on this thread. So I called MS to see what is avaiable for that dates that you are looking for. There is not much, it is avdenture season, members know that it takes less points to stay. Crowds may be less, but not DVC. There is nothing at BWV,BCV,VWL,AKV,there is limited at SSR less then 10 villas and you don't have the 25.Also the same at OKW nothing on the 25th. This is the sad part about buying resale. It takes time for Disney to sign off, which means you best dates that you could have had if you have bought through Disney. With Disney your a member from one. Not always saving as much as you think go through resale, higher closing cost and the incentives Disney is offering are great.

Good Luck to you still. Hope you get chance to bring family.

Scubalover, thanks very much for making this call. I guess I will wait until I am officially in the system to book flights if there is something available. I probably can change my dates a little and if need be can stay cash for that one night. The points I am looking to use are 07 points that I paid nothing for but will expire 1/31. I was not even going to plan to use them originally but then I thought what the heck, if I could get something maybe we would take a short trip down. I also got all of the 08 points that have been banked and did not pay MF's on so in reality at $80 a point and at a minimum of 200 free points, I think I did pretty well on my resale. The hard part is that when you talk yourself into something like I kind of have with this trip that it's a little disappointing. I will be booking a week in August so I still have that to look forward to. Do you by any chance know if any of the villas available were 2Br's? Thanks!

 

[hsteacher]

Just closed on our resale last week and immediately call MS to see what might be available as it is the weekend of MLK day. I wasn't picky about room size (studio was fine) and I wasn't picky on resort (BWV is our home). I actually got rooms for every day but the 18th of Jan. which I have been waitlisted for (made alternative ressies off site just in case). I am resort hopping but I'm OK with that. BCV, VWL, BWV -- so I did get ressies for 1/16, 17, 19, and 20 last week BUT I was very flexible. My daughter is starting the CP program and we're taking a a few days before her check-in as a vacation. Good luck.

 

[n2mm]

OP, please post back. I would love to know if you were successful. While I don't think you will score a 2 bedroom at the resorts you mentioned, you may find something at OKW or SSR. I'm at the BWV for Jan. 17-24 and booked it 11 months out because I was nervous I wouldn't get in for the early part of my stay with it being a holiday weekend.

 

[NJ Mets fan]

OP, please post back. I would love to know if you were successful. While I don't think you will score a 2 bedroom at the resorts you mentioned, you may find something at OKW or SSR. I'm at the BWV for Jan. 17-24 and booked it 11 months out because I was nervous I wouldn't get in for the early part of my stay with it being a holiday weekend.

Thanks - I will post what is ulitimately available and what I decide to do. I just hope they get me into the system quickly. We closed on the 23rd and with the holiday that will probably delay us a bit. Meanwhile each day, the possibilities probably become less and less. I'm not totally set on the original days I posted so if possible I will alter my schedule.

 

[Mom2Nick]

I have just closed 12/23 on a resale and am waiting to get into the system so I can make a reservation for 1/23/09-1/28/09. What are my chances of being able to get a 2Br reservation for that time period assuming I am put into the system next week?? I would prefer BWV, BCV or VWL in that order. What about the accuracy of the resort availability thread? Have you found these to be accurate? According to these just about everything is available.

One of the reasons I am anxious is that airfare rates look really good right now and I want to book these ASAP. If I book w/o a reservation today, I want to make sure I am taking a calculated risk that something will be available.

Thanks for any opinions/advice you have!

I booked for 6 people just before Thanksgiving and had horrible luck trying to get them anything for that week (We are down that week and it would have been great to go together) They basically wanted ALK/BWV/BCW/VWL in that order with OKW and SSR being last choices - and the only thing I could get was 2 studios at SSR for 1/30 - 2/6.... We have been waitlisted since then for those dates but trying to get into one of their preferred hotels with absolutely nothing coming through.

Won't hurt to try though - you never know...