What’s next for the Epcot area?

[corpcomp]

IMO, 0%. it makes no sense for them to do that since selling as new allows them to redo the point charts so they are more in line with today's cash prices, as well as add resale restrictions

So based on these comments, it makes sense to sell off BCV in 5 years and buy into GFV or Bay Lake or the new Poly since they will likely be cheaper than any new BCV or BWV and around a lot longer than the current resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

So based on these comments, it makes sense to sell off BCV in 5 years and buy into GFV or Bay Lake or the new Poly since they will likely be cheaper than any new BCV or BWV and around a lot longer than the current resorts.

We sold BWV in 2019 to buy RIV and this was one of the reasons. We wanted something that went well beyond 2042.

Of course, we fell in love with RIV so it was a no brainer. But any return of DVC to the Crescent Lake area after 2042 is going to be much more expensive than todays direct prices.

And, I think that the demand at. 7 months for the near park resorts left for trades by resale owners, assuming restrictions continue, will increase as there will be a lot of points wanting into those than wanting out.

 

[Bjaiken77]

The part that sucks is there are too few years left now for a 2042 contract, but I don’t want to buy a 50 year contract in 2042. I’ll be too old to get good value out of it. It looks like it wasn’t meant to be BCV and BWV.

 

[zavandor]

What are the chances that Disney will extend the contracts for BCV? I know they did it for OKW. Really want to keep the place for the family. And if they don't cannot imagine what the value would end up being.

I'm sorry, but in my opinion the chances are zero.
They don't want to keep the resort as it is. They'll refurbish it and resell with a huge premium on the point chart.
The only 2042 resort that has a slim chance of an extension is BRV, because too many resorts go back on sale at the same time and BRV could be extended just to align it to CCV expiration. But even this is very unlikely, given the fiasco at OKW.

 

[Bjaiken77]

So where is there room to build anything in the Epcot area? Or could we see a conversion or on site build like VGF2 or Poly Tower?

 

[OKW Lover]

How about a new structure near the skyliner turn station in the BW parking lot? It could be built adjacent to the actual turn station so that construction would not impede operation of the skyliner.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I'm sorry, but in my opinion the chances are zero.
They don't want to keep the resort as it is. They'll refurbish it and resell with a huge premium on the point chart.
The only 2042 resort that has a slim chance of an extension is BRV, because too many resorts go back on sale at the same time and BRV could be extended just to align it to CCV expiration. But even this is very unlikely, given the fiasco at OKW.

I often wonder if it might go better at OKW now if they again offered the 15 year extension. When they did it before (20-25 years ago now?), there was luke-warm interest. As we get closer to 2042, maybe there would be more takers? But I agree with your opinion about extending BCV. I expect that's viewed as potential revenue lost for Disney - it was probably way more popular than they could've expected. They'll likely do a major cleanup and refurb, and resell at some point.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I often wonder if it might go better at OKW now if they again offered the 15 year extension. When they did it before (20-25 years ago now?), there was luke-warm interest. As we get closer to 2042, maybe there would be more takers? But I agree with your opinion about extending BCV. I expect that's viewed as potential revenue lost for Disney - it was probably way more popular than they could've expected. They'll likely do a major cleanup and refurb, and resell at some point.

I agree with people saying the point charts are too low for current times and Disney wanting to do something about that. Also, I think it creates a mess when you are committed to a large chunk of your population leaving in 2042 and another large chunk in 2057. That’s like a 15 year holding period where you can’t make large changes because you need to serve the 2057 owners but you’ve also just lost a huge chunk of 2042 owners. I can see some of the problems, even though it’d benefit me if they’d do it again because I’d buy.

 

[OKW Lover]

I agree with people saying the point charts are too low for current times and Disney wanting to do something about that.

Just to be clear - DVC can't to anything more than swap points between seasons and type of unit at each property. The total number of points must remain the same.

 

[sethschroeder]

I stand by it Disney should do a massive plan to completely rip down and replace CBR with a Deluxe resort town area.

• Epcot - Put a bridge and entrance through what is Africa today (move Africa to be a real pavilion in Morocco)
• Epcot - Theme the new entrance like that of a worlds fair marketplace
• HS - Put a raised walk path under the skyliner with a bridge over parking lot coming down right at the bus station
• Section of CBR become Europe with things like an Swiss Alps, Germany village, French countryside, and Greek seaside villas
• Old CBR - Put in new experiences, additional resturants/shopping, and holiday themed event areas
• Connect the new all guest area directly to Disney Springs via Skyliner
• Premium pay parking structure for non-resort guests

That land around CBR seemingly has more value if they wanted to make it so.

With so many guests to WDW being North and South Americans seemingly it is a theme that would draw people who normally wouldn't run across those themes.

 

[chalee94]

Why was the extension a mess?

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvcs-old-key-west-extension-ordeal.3078317/

https://www.disboards.com/threads/how-did-okw-extension-work.3593089/

 

[chalee94]

I often wonder if it might go better at OKW now if they again offered the 15 year extension. When they did it before (20-25 years ago now?), there was luke-warm interest. As we get closer to 2042, maybe there would be more takers? But I agree with your opinion about extending BCV. I expect that's viewed as potential revenue lost for Disney - it was probably way more popular than they could've expected. They'll likely do a major cleanup and refurb, and resell at some point.

The issue is actually that Disney did not have the legal right to offer the 15 year extension in the manner that they did.

OKW owners mostly went along with it one way or the other, but a handful dug in and refused.

If another resort with the same contract language attempted an extension, many more owners would have dug in and attempted to get the extension for free.

(DVC will also need to break out the capital costs in the next few years so that OKW-2042 owners aren't billed for improvements that only benefit OKW-2057 owners or risk a lawsuit there. Lots of potential headaches.)

Between that and the opportunity to refurb BCV/BWV at expiration and increase the point charts and add new resale restrictions, extensions are a complete non-issue.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Just to be clear - DVC can't to anything more than swap points between seasons and type of unit at each property. The total number of points must remain the same.

Oh, I get that, and that’s why I agree it’s not going to be extended. However, if they want to convert more rooms like they did with Poly or VGF2, I’d be in at Beach Club or Yacht Club. I’d even be in at Boardwalk.

 

[Genie+]

An Epcot entrance DVC is interesting. The theming would be important to decide DVC add-on for us.

Please feel welcome to counter against the following reasoning —— I’d appreciate any thoughts

One of the positives of owning BW/BC with their 2042 expirations is the time value of money calculations.

You’re only prepaying less than 20 years into the future.

Comparison of buying 150 pts 2042 resort for $170pp vs 2064 for $150pp:

150pts resale $150 of 2064 resort = $22,500
If you were to invest that say for retirement, it’d be near a whopping $175k in 42 years at 5% interest:
Divide that 42 years left and on average it’s costing $4k a year over its entire life.


150pts resale $170 of 2042 resort = $25,500
If you were to invest that say for retirement, it’d be near a whopping $65k in 19 years at 5% interest:
Divide that 19 years left and on average it’s costing less than $3.5k a year over its entire life.


Absolutely this isn’t the whole math story. It is a different way to look at it though.

We just bought in direct for less than our BWV resale per point. I still don’t feel like we overpaid for our smaller BW since the shorter contract suits us well. There’s no ‘perfect’ way to buy DVC, much depends on individual goals. The balance of EP area resort where the point chart we can stretch # of nights with a low dues MK resort that grants blue card works ok for us.

 

[DebbieB]

Just to be clear - DVC can't to anything more than swap points between seasons and type of unit at each property. The total number of points must remain the same.

They can on 2/1/2042 if they start selling new contracts.

 

[StevieB81]

An Epcot entrance DVC is interesting. The theming would be important to decide DVC add-on for us.

Please feel welcome to counter against the following reasoning —— I’d appreciate any thoughts

One of the positives of owning BW/BC with their 2042 expirations is the time value of money calculations.

You’re only prepaying less than 20 years into the future.

Comparison of buying 150 pts 2042 resort for $170pp vs 2064 for $150pp:

150pts resale $150 of 2064 resort = $22,500
If you were to invest that say for retirement, it’d be near a whopping $175k in 42 years at 5% interest:
Divide that 42 years left and on average it’s costing $4k a year over its entire life.
View attachment 766432

150pts resale $170 of 2042 resort = $25,500
If you were to invest that say for retirement, it’d be near a whopping $65k in 19 years at 5% interest:
Divide that 19 years left and on average it’s costing less than $3.5k a year over its entire life.
View attachment 766433

Absolutely this isn’t the whole math story. It is a different way to look at it though.

We just bought in direct for less than our BWV resale per point. I still don’t feel like we overpaid for our smaller BW since the shorter contract suits us well. There’s no ‘perfect’ way to buy DVC, much depends on individual goals. The balance of EP area resort where the point chart we can stretch # of nights with a low dues MK resort that grants blue card works ok for us.

If the retirement date is the same in both cases, then the higher monetary amount (2042 example) holds more value for that use, as it will have the same amount of time to mature if not spent on DVC. The converted value (DVC) of this money goes to zero sooner in the 2042 case, making the value of the conversion less than the 2064 case. Unless I'm missing something (and I could be) the 2042 case is the worst way to go all around.

 

[Genie+]

If the retirement date is the same in both cases, then the higher monetary amount (2042 example) holds more value for that use, as it will have the same amount of time to mature if not spent on DVC. The converted value (DVC) of this money goes to zero sooner in the 2042 case, making the value of the conversion less than the 2064 case. Unless I'm missing something (and I could be) the 2042 case is the worst way to go all around.

Yes that makes sense. Thanks.

Another difference is in 2042, the longer contract will likely still have something of value to sell.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Yes that makes sense. Thanks.

Another difference is in 2042, the longer contract will likely still have something of value to sell.

I still think the 2042 resorts hold some value for people who only want to do this for 18 years or so. Not sure what the break even point is in terms of when the money is recovered, but I would assume it’s within the first 10 years. As mentioned above, the problem is you are left with a zero dollar item in 2042 whereas you could recover a large chunk of money for a resort with a later use year.

Our issue is more simple: We want to go more than the remaining time left.

 

[Genie+]

I still think the 2042 resorts hold some value for people who only want to do this for 18 years or so

This is what we liked about it.