Well That Didn't take Long!

I'm just going to assume that my definition of "emptied out" might be different from the definition of someone who had been working all week in the midst of the highest crowds of the season.
"Emptied out" to me means walk on rides. That's been our experiences after fireworks this time of year.
 
Believe it or not.

Am talking right now to CM who is manager who works in Fantasyland and was there until 5 am ... and getting ready to go back to work all of tonight. Said the place emptied out after fireworks and even the DJs were spinning to no one.
That doesn't really surprise me, actually. Most people are going to want to stay out and up later than they probably generally do tonight, for the new year. I can see many wdw visitors, especially families with children younger than teenagers, intentionally choosing *not* to stay out very late 2 nights in a row. So see the nye fireworks show on the 30th, go home and sleep to prep for being in the parks late tonight.
 
Based on what they just with APs, I think more blockout dates for more APs are more likely than blockouts for one-day tickets.

Why do you think someone with a one-day ticket is spending less on that day than a local AP holder? I agree they are most likely spending less than someone staying onsite.

I am a local with a no-blackout AP who spends a minimum of 40 nights per year staying on property. I very seldom do day trips because I prefer the full vacation experience. If I need a little Disney fix I'm more likely to hit Disney Springs than go to the park for the afternoon. Just because I live locally (I can see MK fireworks from my driveway) doesn't mean I don't enjoy the full vacation resort experience.

That being said, as a local AP holder, I know the times of the year that the parks are packed to the gills and I avoid those at all costs. Why would I want to go to MK today when I can spend ten days there next month with a lot more breathing room and a lot shorter lines? I don't know anyone locally who goes to the theme parks when it's super duper busy - we all know other local places to go to celebrate. We don't want to be in that crush of people and we have the easiest time avoiding it. Personally, although I will probably stick with the no black out pass, I think the Gold AP will be very popular among locals because it only blocks out the truly horrible dates as far as crowding goes. I know several people who are considering going up from a Silver or down from a no blackout to the Gold pass. I think that pass will be a real sweet spot for locals. Basically, they are already making you pay an upcharge to enter the parks for the holidays since you have to pay more for the no blackout pass than for the lesser resident passes.

Most of the AP holders I know do eat in the parks, and do buy items in the park. In fact, many of us are into the higher priced items like Pandora and other jewelry, Dooneys, etc. I agree that spending less on the admission allows us more buying power for other things. But many times, when friends and family come into town and buy a one day ticket, they want to eat before we go to the park, they don't buy much in the way of souvenirs, and they want to wait to eat until we leave the park. Is it because they are paying such a premium to get into the parks? I've never really asked them, but I'm sure it plays into the decision.

Question though - if the park is at a first phase where you can't get in with a one day ticket, can you upgrade at the park to a two day and then go in? I'm sure there would be some people who want to get into the MK bad enough that they would be willing to do so.
 
Definitely, those Florida resident tickets/passes with the blockout dates are the first tickets that are technically blocked.

I was thinking more like adding a blockout date to another class of pass and making you buy up to get the holiday week dates as well. Similar to what they already did with the APs this year, but just adding more, let's say you have to buy the Platinum Plus pass to get that week. Not saying I want that to happen, but I think that is more likely to happen than blocking all one-day tickets.

So blocking out holiday weeks for folks who are already paying hundreds of dollars more than local AP holders? for the ability to travel any day. Guests who are mostly coming from out of state, booking hotels, booking dining, booking special events, shopping .... rather than blocking the guest who will come in for the day focused on attractions and probably spend little money beyond the ticket and may not come back the rest of the year. Disney has already put one day ticket holders on the bottom rung on busy days, they must have a reason.

I don't see that, but hey, as with all things Disney, nothing exists or is fact until it is 3D, open and operational.
 

So blocking out holiday weeks for folks who are already paying hundreds of dollars more than local AP holders? for the ability to travel any day. Guests who are mostly coming from out of state, booking hotels, booking dining, booking special events, shopping .... rather than blocking the guest who will come in for the day focused on attractions and probably spend little money beyond the ticket and may not come back the rest of the year. Disney has already put one day ticket holders on the bottom rung on busy days, they must have a reason.

I don't see that, but hey, as with all things Disney, nothing exists or is fact until it is 3D, open and operational.
Those who buy one day tickets can vary. One time we stayed at the AKL but only visited MK for one day during that trip. We spend plenty at resort restaurants and at Downtown Disney. Of course we would get priority as resort guests but we really always spent about the same in the parks - onsite or offsite, one day pass or multi-day.

I'm sure that Disney has crunched the numbers and can estimate who they see as more "valuable" though. It stinks for those guests who only go for one day but dine and buy souvenirs just like others however.
 
Could it be that this one of the (admittingly very rare) times when economics doesn't rule? It just seems the easiest to start with 1 day ticket holders. Where else would they start? The local APs already have levels with block out dates, so you'd really piss off AP holders who paid more for their holidays if you denied them access first.

Multi-day ticket holders have got to be the most numerous people in the park, so it doesn't seem smart to start there. What else does that leave?
 
Those who buy one day tickets can vary. One time we stayed at the AKL but only visited MK for one day during that trip. We spend plenty at resort restaurants and at Downtown Disney. Of course we would get priority as resort guests but we really always spent about the same in the parks - onsite or offsite, one day pass or multi-day.

I'm sure that Disney has crunched the numbers and can estimate who they see as more "valuable" though. It stinks for those guests who only go for one day but dine and buy souvenirs just like others however.

And you would be allowed in the park because you are giving Disney more money by staying on property. It's not about blocking one day ticket holders at random times, it's about the fact that Disney has chosen to block them first on the very few days that go up the closure ladder.

You are right, Disney has done the math and decided who they want in the park on those packed days at each point. Even if you don't believe it is math, it's still who they have chosen to block. All I was saying that started this whole "discussion" is that if there are specific days each year that go into closure (and there are) and the non-guest/one day ticket holders are the first to be blocked for whatever reason (this morning by about 9 am) then why not just make those few dates always blocked for one day/non-resort guests. It will eliminate some of the traffic and congestion at the toll booths along with other aggravation that folks are experiencing.
 
So blocking out holiday weeks for folks who are already paying hundreds of dollars more than local AP holders? for the ability to travel any day. Guests who are mostly coming from out of state, booking hotels, booking dining, booking special events, shopping .... rather than blocking the guest who will come in for the day focused on attractions and probably spend little money beyond the ticket and may not come back the rest of the year. Disney has already put one day ticket holders on the bottom rung on busy days, they must have a reason.

I don't see that, but hey, as with all things Disney, nothing exists or is fact until it is 3D, open and operational.

There were a lot of changes with APs this year, both in FL and CA so it's quite reasonable that they could keep going down that path in the future to try to reduce crowds on certain days. Regardless, I don't see them ever putting a pre-emptive blockout on one day tix. Hey look what they did today, moved a bunch of them to the other three parks and compensated them with a QS meal. Sounds like Disney won there to me.
 
Maybe it's just me but I always assumed that they start with the 1 day tickets because the assumption is that those affected were either locals (who could go a different day) or people taking an "Orlando vacation" (as opposed to a "Disney World vacation") who could use the ticket in the future (assuming it was pre purchased). Those with multi day tickets obviously are on a "Disney World vacation" and as such Disney would want to admit them as long as possible especially since multi day tickets expire after 14 days unlike an unused 1 day ticket. As far as AP go unless an individual bought a restricted access one I think Disney would have a problem if they didn't admit them until they hit capacity.
 
I wonder if Disney ranks guest in their computer systems like they do their restaurants? $ no shot at getting in. $$$$$ you can do what you want.
 
I think you guys are tremendously exaggerating the number of people who buy one day tickets and stay off-site. I won't venture a guess on gate percentages aside from it's well back in single digits, but enough to make a difference in a 1st or 2nd level closure. NOBODY datamines any better than Disney. Trust me. I know. Nothing at Disney Parks and Resorts happens without an absolutely positive knowledge of what the outcome will be before it even happens and they are rarely wrong. Y'all can paralysis/analysis it until you're blue in the face and you can rationalize what you THINK all you want. At the end of the day, Disney knows. They don't guess. Period.
 
Based on wait times I saw via MDE experience throughout the day, you couldn't pay me enough money to be in any of the parks today.

110+ minutes for Big Thunder, Seven Dwarfs, Peter Pan, Space Mountain and Splash Mountain. No Way
205 minutes for Soarin
150 minutes for Rock & Roller Coaster and Toy Story Midway Mania

I have better things to do than be in those crowds on days like today. I'd be content to be at the pool and sit by the bar all day long.
 
Currently driving home from MK. We are local AP holders. We only went to MK today to meet family from out of town, went knowing full well what to expect crowd wise. Lot was full by 10:30am when we got there and traffic was a gridlock for miles to the MK lot. Parked in Epcot and lined up for the monorail. They were scanning MB's before you could even get on the monorail. Had no problems getting in to MK. Grabbed snacks at the Confectionary and were able to grab curb seats for the 12p parade which they began at 11:45 after announcing an earlier start. Used our FP+ for our three rides and did not ride anything else. We see no point in waiting in lines that are pushing three hours when we will be back. Left before dinner time. Again, only went to visit family and had very low expectations because of the expected crowds. Cast members were plentiful and doing their best at keeping crowds moving.
 
Longest wait posted I actually witnessed was SDMT (while we were getting ice cream) 160 minutes.
 
Based on wait times I saw via MDE experience throughout the day, you couldn't pay me enough money to be in any of the parks today.

110+ minutes for Big Thunder, Seven Dwarfs, Peter Pan, Space Mountain and Splash Mountain. No Way
205 minutes for Soarin
150 minutes for Rock & Roller Coaster and Toy Story Midway Mania

I have better things to do than be in those crowds on days like today. I'd be content to be at the pool and sit by the bar all day long.
Keep in mind those times are all doubled what the real time is so people feel better when they get through the line. When you consider that it makes the rides practically walk on.
 
What exactly do these monster wait times look like in terms of actual physical lines? It seems this summer when we went over 4th of July just about every line was 'full' and had little extra room for more people. Most wait times were 30-90 minutes max. Where do all the people go when the wait times are massive? I mean, its not that unusual for Space Mountain que line to stretch beyond the entrance during the summer and the wait is like 90min. So what does a 120+ minute wait look like? Is it stretched out all over tomorrow land? Seven Dwarfs Mine Train almost always had a full que line in the summer and seemed to peak at 100min. Where do the extra 60+ minutes of waiting go? What does a 300+ minute wait for Soarin look like? Does it stretch out of the land pavilion? Where do all of these people go!?

Anyone have pictures? I can't imagine the parks walkways are just full of overflow lines...
 
Believe it or not.

Am talking right now to CM who is manager who works in Fantasyland and was there until 5 am ... and getting ready to go back to work all of tonight. Said the place emptied out after fireworks and even the DJs were spinning to no one.

I was there last night until about the 1am regular close. I agree that most of the attractions except the headliners were walk on after about 11 or so, I rode quite a bit. 7DMT was still like 90 minutes when I left though, lol. I wasn't a resort guest, so I didn't stay til the 3 am bitter end. The crowds were fairly manageable all day though, which I am attributing to the new castle hub configuration. There was hardly any of the shoulder to shoulder can't move taking baby steps of previous years.

I saw both NYE fireworks at MK yesterday. Nice fireworks with lots of perimeter ones both times. The countdown with Mickey and Minnie and Goofy is cute. From 9:30 to 11:50 when they turned the whole park into a loud dance party I could have done without though. It was real loud and in all the lands not just in front of the castle, so you couldn't get away from it unless you were inside an attraction. The crowds were manageable though, glad I went last night instead of tonight. The dance party continued after the fireworks, but I don't know if it continued into EMH.
 
The que lines were stretched everywhere with cast members holding signs that read which ride and line ends here. SDMT was stretched against the fence and down past the Tea Cups. Splash mtn was out past their store and into the walkway over the bridge. BTMR was also stretched into the walkway. We never walked over to Tomorrowland so not sure about Space mtn. Basically each and every ride line was entirely out of the ques and into traffic which was why there were so many cast members directing traffic. Philharmagic stretched out past the carousel. HM stretched all the way out into the walkway connecting the two lands. It really was something to witness and made me appreciate the regular busy days!
 
I saw an Inside the Magic Video for NYE Fireworks and would see the Fireworks on 12/30 from the Contemporary and then do NYE between DHS and Epcot. Those Fireworks are the best I have ever seen on Earth and I've seen some amazing ones. I probably will never to do a trip that time of year, but those Fireworks are tempting to me.
 


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