Weather affects visit?

[traveler_t]

1. How many days before the WDW trip can I count on the weather forecast to predict the weather patterns?

2. How to read the forecast to tell if it will affect our visit?

10 days before our WDW visit weather shows rain/wind for the entire week and I'm trying to understand if this is just occasional shower or something that will further affect the visit. This is a big effort / cost for us to come and we might cancel if weather will be a big factor. Thanks!

 

[NYCgrrl]

1. How many days before the WDW trip can I count on the weather forecast to predict the weather patterns?

2. How to read the forecast to tell if it will affect our visit?

10 days before our WDW visit weather shows rain/wind for the entire week and I'm trying to understand if this is just occasional shower or something that will further affect the visit. This is a big effort / cost for us to come and we might cancel if weather will be a big factor. Thanks!

Sounds like you are going on a first time vacation away from home.

Since you are already at the 10 day mark the forecast will be pretty accurate. You will see precipitation and humidity amounts in percentages on a daily basis. Use this info to help choose your trip wardrobe and itinerary. Unless you are sleeping outdoors I don’t think you need more detailed weather data.
Camping at Fort Wilderness?

 

[RuntheMouse]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/fl/orlando/KFLORLAN406

They give a good idea of expected rain by hour. It’s my go to when traveling down there.

 

[Mr. Drauer]

1. How many days before the WDW trip can I count on the weather forecast to predict the weather patterns?

2. How to read the forecast to tell if it will affect our visit?

10 days before our WDW visit weather shows rain/wind for the entire week and I'm trying to understand if this is just occasional shower or something that will further affect the visit. This is a big effort / cost for us to come and we might cancel if weather will be a big factor. Thanks!

1. for Orlando, the night before is about as close as you can get to being correct, but not 100%.
2. depends on what weather is being forecast. If it is rain in the winter, it will depend upon if it is from a cold front moving in across the Gulf of Mexico, which usually means possible severe thunderstorms with rain for a couple of hours, or if it is from some type of depressional system that hangs around for a couple of days.. If rain in summer, pop up severe storms are typically short lived, but could hang around for a few hours or more.

10 days out is meaningless here. 3 days can be OK as far as temperature and a general forecast, but these systems are dynamic. Depending upon strength, they are affected by the energy from south Florida and the Carribbean, and the interaction between the systems and land.

You can look at the local forecasts at WFTV, WESH, or WKMG, or Weather Bug, or Weather Underground, or others. It is pretty rare for winter to have days / a week of rain.

 

[hertamaniac]

I use the Fox 35 Orlando weather app. daily. It's usually correct in terms of temps and severe weather. But, a pop-up shower does occur randomly and rarely effects my days.

I personally target going to the WDW theme parks on severe weather days (I'm local and a Pixie Dust AP holder) since it generally thins the tourists by 3 PM.

 

[sheilafri]

1. for Orlando, the night before is about as close as you can get to being correct, but not 100%.
2. depends on what weather is being forecast. If it is rain in the winter, it will depend upon if it is from a cold front moving in across the Gulf of Mexico, which usually means possible severe thunderstorms with rain for a couple of hours, or if it is from some type of depressional system that hangs around for a couple of days.. If rain in summer, pop up severe storms are typically short lived, but could hang around for a few hours or more.

10 days out is meaningless here. 3 days can be OK as far as temperature and a general forecast, but these systems are dynamic. Depending upon strength, they are affected by the energy from south Florida and the Carribbean, and the interaction between the systems and land.

You can look at the local forecasts at WFTV, WESH, or WKMG, or Weather Bug, or Weather Underground, or others. It is pretty rare for winter to have days / a week of rain.

I’m a snowbird in the FL panhandle. I find the forecasts to be very unreliable. 10 days out IS meaningless especially for rain predictions. Unless you see a large front coming across the whole country you can ignore it. As the poster above said, if it comes off the Gulf, the forecasters won’t know the effects until a day or so before time. It is better at predicting temperatures. I can’t tell you how many times rain has been predicted at a week out only to not materialize. Also, rain in Florida often comes at night or for a brief period in the afternoon. If it isn’t a total deluge, the parks may clear out a bit and you can get a lot done if you have proper rain gear. If it is a total deluge, the parks will clear out.

When I just checked Lake Buena Vista on WU, it showed .11 inches on Monday. I wouldn’t let that stop me. That isn’t very much if it even materializes.

 

[barb969]

For our January trip of 4 nights:
Using the weather channel app
10 days out rain a couple of days
8 days out rain every day
6 days out rain 3 days
4 days out rain 4 days
3 days out rain 2 days
2 days out rain 2days
1 day out rain 1 day

Actual weather: it was supposed to rain 1 day starting around 1 pm. The time kept getting pushed back. It rained about 7 - 8pm and did not affect our trip. The temperature forecasts were fairly accurate 10 days out.
I like when 10 days the weather is bad because it because it anlways improves. If it is good it only has one way to go.

 

[Mermaidtails1323]

Our last trip called for rain every day of the trip. It rained once, for about 30 minutes, and that was it.

I’ve learned to just go with the flow on weather. Temperatures are the only things I plan around. We’ve lucked out so far.

 

[Keladry84]

My first trip to Florida (late May), 10 days out showed rain every day. Actual amount of rain - 0.
2nd trip (early January), showed a couple days of rain 10 days out - actual rain - 0.

So far I've lucked out not to have rain. Regardless, I would go in expecting intermittent rain a couple of days of the trip and just plan accordingly - from what I read about weather there it is very common, and I think it would be extremely difficult to luck in planning a trip ahead of time with no rain.

btw, I know I'm due for a rainy Florida trip. My next one is mid March, so will see!

 

[juxtapose]

They are not accurate 10 days out for rain. Now temperature will be closer to accurate or if there is some large storm system/hurricane coming that might be more accurate for rain.