WDW resort going forward

[manning]

There's been on and off speculation that Apple may want to acquire Disney.

That could have brought a different appearance at EPCOT. just think, the big golf ball being replaced by a big apple. Heck even change the water tower at DHS to a shape of an apple. An apple with years.

Whoa I need another drink of whoopy juice.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If...for one moment...the original premise is correct...

Then it represents what had been the worst fears of fans at wdw for sometime now...

That they are "done with it"...it has no value for growth, only as a cashcow and for operating revenue.

I've worried that for years...east coast "expansion" is probably a thing of the past... There just isn't enough money SPREAD OUT across the target populace to justify expansions

I think their incessant fee increases for the last ten years have taught them what I had feared...
That's it's not a matter of a cap on what the wdw market WANTS to buy...there is a limit on what they CAN buy...and an uninterrupted increase in the price arc isn't going to hold.

This...is why I have been screaming about their comparative lack of park investment since animal kingdom...
Because rides cost money... And it's pretty obvious that the accountants saw a diminishing return along time ago.

I have DVC...we booked 8 nights at Saratoga and boardwalk for a trip that was last week..on June 5th.
The crowds were what I would describe as "light" for July... When 80% of the clientele do not have school to deal with...
Fastpass was available almost everywhere and up to the minute...dining reservations anywhere...

Heck, I even got cheap flights out of Philly

Now...a great trip for us...but for somebody wanting wdw to do more for me for the future...it was the doomsday scenario.

Your can say what you want about the line for the mine train (cute but ultimately a blah experience), the number of villas, and the tour groups
But I see the complex as flat or even in decline compared to the past. These places are not growing by my semi-experienced eyes...

Let's face it...it has plateaued at a minimum...we could very well see the shift to decline...

People often complain about how DVC has "ruined" the place...
You'd really would have loved the last 15 years without...
That would have been a delightful display of cost cutting and catastrophic price increases.

 

[mikedoyleblogger]

What if it's just a fiscally conservative course correction in response to building their hotel stock beyond necessary capacity? And if it is, why would that be evidence that TDO doesn't care about the parks or expansion (or even state of good repair) anymore?

It seems to me it was the cost of over-expansion (in terms of parks and rooms, both) that caused TDO to put park expansion/maintenance into a relative holding pattern in the 2000s. If that's the case, getting the lodging/DVC mis-match in order could be a prelude to attending to the parks again.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Ok...if your premise is correct...then how do you factor in annual or biannual costs increases across the board above the rate of inflation...

Ie...making more revenue off existing product.

That's the stickler for me

 

[mikedoyleblogger]

Ok...if your premise is correct...then how do you factor in annual or biannual costs increases across the board above the rate of inflation...

Ie...making more revenue off existing product.

That's the stickler for me

Maybe simply because they can. After Cars Land, Team Disney Anaheim raised the cost of admission media and hotel rooms significantly without adding any capacity at all--in the parks or at the hotels. People didn't stop coming and they'll still be adding (if modestly) to DL for the 60th.

WDW and DLR both posted much stronger numbers than anticipated this year. So maybe Team Disney Orlando is kind of doing the same thing--pulling out as much profit as possible without damaging existing attendance. But since there's less wiggle room to raise the high end of lodging higher, they're choosing DVC conversion--which locks in a revenue stream for Disney in terms of real cost, dues, and money spent regularly on-site, while shifting maintenance costs off of Disney's books and onto owners.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Ok...I agree


But the counter to that take is if they don't do significant investment while continuing to increase fees (heavily for about 8 years...not just this year)...then they are by definition bleeding their product.

Which is what wdw defenders have feared.

I'm not arguing...just going on the other side of the coin.

 

[mikedoyleblogger]

Ok...I agree


But the counter to that take is if they don't do significant investment while continuing to increase fees (heavily for about 8 years...not just this year)...then they are by definition bleeding their product.

Which is what wdw defenders have feared.

I'm not arguing...just going on the other side of the coin.

Totally got it. One thing I've been thinking about is the impact of 9/11 on both coasts. At the time, DLR was in the middle of sending huge sums of money building and opening DCA and the west coast DTD and couldn't step back too far from those ongoing investments. WDW, on the other hand, cut back pretty severely and a lot of those cutbacks never came back fully and are still felt/have become the new baseline (in terms of dining, staffing, expansion, maintenance, operating procedures, etc.) Could it be that that trend is still ongoing--i.e. that TDO just isn't used to thinking in a visionary, holistic way about the parks since then? Meaning maybe you're right, they know how to take money out, but they don't know how to put money in anymore.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

One small discrepancy...


Wdw had one of its most successful periods in history from 1998-2000...

People could not get enough of the "millenium"...which of course actually started on 1/1/2001...
But never let linear time stand in the way if good marketing...

Anyway...wdw had suffered a severe downturn in EARLY 2001...low occupancy in results, hiring freezes, struggles to fill positions lost by natural attrition...

So...things were down before global geopolitical events.

 

[larry_poppins]

Mr. Logic,

What is Disney's goal here? They are still selling DVC and still planning more, particularly if we are to believe the rumors of the expanded Wilderness Lodge.

They can not continue to raise prices without any real theme park reinvestment forever. Right? The previous past 8 years can not be the model for the next 8. Are they trying to price themselves out of existence? At some point even DVCers may choose to spend a day at the Magic Kingdom, a day at Avatar Land (I'm being very generous here!) and 2 days at Universal and the rest of the time at the pool! What will WDW look like in ten years? Who can afford this?

Larry

 

[rteetz]

Mr. Logic, What is Disney's goal here? They are still selling DVC and still planning more, particularly if we are to believe the rumors of the expanded Wilderness Lodge. They can not continue to raise prices without any real theme park reinvestment forever. Right? The previous past 8 years can not be the model for the next 8. Are they trying to price themselves out of existence? At some point even DVCers may choose to spend a day at the Magic Kingdom, a day at Avatar Land (I'm being very generous here!) and 2 days at Universal and the rest of the time at the pool! What will WDW look like in ten years? Who can afford this? Larry

Disney will raise prices until people stop buying. They keep raising yet people keep buying. The biggest reason they are going back to DVC at the wilderness tho is because they are not reaching capacity. Adding DVC and taking away regular rooms inflates the rate of room occupancy that's why they are going to do this. As for park tickets they will keep raising them until people stop buying. DVC is the big thing right now and Disney is going to take advantage of that and it's short term return in investment.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Mr. Logic,

What is Disney's goal here? They are still selling DVC and still planning more, particularly if we are to believe the rumors of the expanded Wilderness Lodge.

They can not continue to raise prices without any real theme park reinvestment forever. Right? The previous past 8 years can not be the model for the next 8. Are they trying to price themselves out of existence? At some point even DVCers may choose to spend a day at the Magic Kingdom, a day at Avatar Land (I'm being very generous here!) and 2 days at Universal and the rest of the time at the pool! What will WDW look like in ten years? Who can afford this?

Larry

I believe that Disney is in "post wdw" mode.

It will be kept "current"...and I do use that term
Loosley...only to the minimum point where market share and/or revenue does not dip significantly...

I just don't see that complex as being that important moving forward...

Their revenue and profits are strong...and they have even taken a small deduction in share.

No big deal, right?

Well...in 1995 if they had taken a 2% drop in share...Eisner would have literally lit his pants on fire and been on the way to LAX with a design team riding in a limo while he sprinted next to it.

That was not acceptable...

Like it or not...now it is.

But...I'll wait and see if my gut (just that...no "insider" tips...just experience and common sense) is correct.

What if we roll forward 5 years and there is no Star Wars, Carsland, EPCOT revitilization, Pixar place, tomorrowland 3.0 announcement?

What if it's still 5 year bled out projects one at a time...

What if the boys up the street throttle up and continue to crank/expand?

It was a theory a few years ago...it's starting to take shape...sadly.

Golden oak, four seasons, the price wars with themselves, DVC conversion after relentless expansion...

I can't be sure...but the intentions don't really SEEM that veiled...do they?

 

[clsteve]

Mr. Logic,

What is Disney's goal here? They are still selling DVC and still planning more, particularly if we are to believe the rumors of the expanded Wilderness Lodge.

They can not continue to raise prices without any real theme park reinvestment forever. Right? The previous past 8 years can not be the model for the next 8. Are they trying to price themselves out of existence? At some point even DVCers may choose to spend a day at the Magic Kingdom, a day at Avatar Land (I'm being very generous here!) and 2 days at Universal and the rest of the time at the pool! What will WDW look like in ten years? Who can afford this?

Larry

Sometimes I think they've been too successful penetrating overseas markets thus benefiting from favorable exchange rates - it's not so expensive to them and they don't bat an eye at the price increases. Heaven help them if the exchange rate scale flips the other way anytime soon....Plus, 10 years from now it will be someone else's problem, unfortunately.

I believe that Disney is in "post wdw" mode.

It will be kept "current"...and I do use that term
Loosley...only to the minimum point where market share and/or revenue does not dip significantly...

I just don't see that complex as being that important moving forward...

Their revenue and profits are strong...and they have even taken a small deduction in share.

No big deal, right?

Well...in 1995 if they had taken a 2% drop in share...Eisner would have literally lit his pants on fire and been on the way to LAX with a design team riding in a limo while he sprinted next to it.

That was not acceptable...

Like it or not...now it is.

But...I'll wait and see if my gut (just that...no "insider" tips...just experience and common sense) is correct.

What if we roll forward 5 years and there is no Star Wars, Carsland, EPCOT revitilization, Pixar place, tomorrowland 3.0 announcement?

What if it's still 5 year bled out projects one at a time...

What if the boys up the street throttle up and continue to crank/expand?

It was a theory a few years ago...it's starting to take shape...sadly.

Golden oak, four seasons, the price wars with themselves, DVC conversion after relentless expansion...

I can't be sure...but the intentions don't really SEEM that veiled...do they?

No, not veiled at all. It's more that we don't want to see it, sometimes. It would be more shocking if it wasn't 5 year bled out projects and ground was broken on something major before Avatar opened. The new "New" will continue to be hard ticket events (additional revenue streams) and the re-branding of existing attractions/shows to fill in that 5 year space.

They really are masters at managing the timelines to manage expectations - Look at the Avatar, from the concept art until opening, they get just enough info out to keep people excited, while still sticking to the 5 year plan - while also dribbling out some well managed rumors of what projects might follow - even if they never will. They have it down to a science.

 

[mom2rtk]

This really is a fascinating discussion. Depressing as all get-out........ but fascinating. Sigh.

 

[dinolounger]

Disney has only had trouble selling DVC at certain places.

Yes, "certain places" being defined as...any place that isn't directly within or next to a Disney park. Or put another way, DVC sells well, as long as the given property is tied directly into the generic perceived Disney travel value proposition, ergo, theme park. The one possible exception to that rule is Saratoga Springs, which didn't move very quickly and has below average resale value, because the market was and still is smart enough to understand it's a second tier property in terms of theming and location.

I guess if Disney ever offers time share purchases of cabins on their cruse ships, those might also sell well.

But Disney still lures people in and gets them sold.

Again, that is most likely when the property is tied to a theme park. Much, much less likely if it isn't. That's the first problem with Aulani. The west coasters flocked to the Grand Californian DVC...because it's in Disneyland. They have not flocked to Aulani.

The other BIG problem with Aulani is it's a distant, expensive long haul asset for most of Disney's core North American market to buy into. And the hoped for Japanese buyers haven't jumped in at anywhere close to the level Disney optimistically expected them to.

The Poly DVC already has a waiting list and it isn't on sale yet. I think the Poly will sell very well.

Per that logic, I guess Disney's going to turn every hotel property on site into a time share.......

 

[dinolounger]

At some point even DVCers may choose to spend a day at the Magic Kingdom, a day at Avatar Land (I'm being very generous here!) and 2 days at Universal and the rest of the time at the pool! Larry

Change MK to HS and AK/"Avatar" to Epcot and you have pretty much described our last DVC trip.

We stayed at AKL (savanna view a nice diversion from our normal BW view AT BWV) and did "hit and run" days at HS and Epcot. That translates into short, targeted park itineraries of only certain attractions, specifically, the old favorites, since there is nothing new -- and skipped any sit down dining, since its all generic now. In fact, we only did one sit down WDW restaurant (Saana at AK) the entire time we were on property.

Then played hooky at Universal for -- yes -- two full days, spending more on dining there in Citywalk than we did at Disney.

 

[rteetz]

Yes, "certain places" being defined as...any place that isn't directly within or next to a Disney park. Or put another way, DVC sells well, as long as the given property is tied directly into the generic perceived Disney travel value proposition, ergo, theme park. The one possible exception to that rule is Saratoga Springs, which didn't move very quickly and has below average resale value, because the market was and still is smart enough to understand it's a second tier property in terms of theming and location. I guess if Disney ever offers time share purchases of cabins on their cruse ships, those might also well. Again, that is most likely when the property is tied to a theme park. Much, much less likely if it isn't. That's the first problem with Aulani. The west coasters flocked to the Grand Californian DVC...because it's in Disneyland. They have not flocked to Aulani. The other BIG problem with Aulani is it's a distant, expensive long haul asset for most of Disney's core North American market to buy into. And the hoped for Japanese buyers haven't jumped at anywhere close to the level Disney optimistically expected them to. Per that logic, I guess Disney's going to turn every hotel property on site into a time share.......

I don't think they will offer cruise ship time shares because DVC members can already use points to book a cabin on a Disney ship. I'm actually very surprised aulani had a tough time selling because everything give heard is it's the best Disney resort anywhere in the world.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

If the executives at WDW really want to fill rooms they need to start putting more money into the parks. New Fantasyland is fine and the MyMagic+ system is great and all but we need more. The oft rumored Star Wars and Carsland additions at DHS would definitely bring in some crowds and fill up hotel rooms. The more and better attractions that are added to WDW will certainly increase attendance and demand for hotel room on every level from Deluxe to Value and everything in between.

Perfectly stated!

 

[Figmentforever24]

I believe that Disney is in "post wdw" mode.

It will be kept "current"...and I do use that term
Loosley...only to the minimum point where market share and/or revenue does not dip significantly...

I just don't see that complex as being that important moving forward...

Their revenue and profits are strong...and they have even taken a small deduction in share.

No big deal, right?

Well...in 1995 if they had taken a 2% drop in share...Eisner would have literally lit his pants on fire and been on the way to LAX with a design team riding in a limo while he sprinted next to it.

That was not acceptable...

Like it or not...now it is.

But...I'll wait and see if my gut (just that...no "insider" tips...just experience and common sense) is correct.

What if we roll forward 5 years and there is no Star Wars, Carsland, EPCOT revitilization, Pixar place, tomorrowland 3.0 announcement?

What if it's still 5 year bled out projects one at a time...

What if the boys up the street throttle up and continue to crank/expand?

It was a theory a few years ago...it's starting to take shape...sadly.

Golden oak, four seasons, the price wars with themselves, DVC conversion after relentless expansion...

I can't be sure...but the intentions don't really SEEM that veiled...do they?

Yea well Eisner would have added things, but doesn't mean good things. This was the man who found Epcot Center to expensive to operate so he began the process of dumbing down the park. To much money to update Horizons so they rip apart the building and build a space ride rather then add a new pavilion. Add nemo to the seas for advertising. Dumb down Figment. Dumb down Energy....although that wasn't to bad for the time. Removed World of Motion...that's ok I guess. Then he was so desperate to make more people come to Disneyland that he went and created California Adventure....well we know how that was. Superstar Limo anyone? Walt Disney Studios Paris.....need I say more. Honestly that man served his time and I rather see nothing be built then crap being built.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't think they will offer cruise ship time shares because DVC members can already use points to book a cabin on a Disney ship. I'm actually very surprised aulani had a tough time selling because everything give heard is it's the best Disney resort anywhere in the world.

It's also on the most expensive islands in the world, in the middle of the largest body of water on the planet and...
Airfare ain't cheap.

In Disney's mind, vacation club is an "exclusive" group of $500,000 and up income earners...
Reality is for the majority it's a luxury that is a "significant" investment to most and therefore requires some measure of financial sensibility.

Aulani always has the potential to be too out of line with those sensibility..

Especially with that fool joe rohde spending like a sailor on it

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yea well Eisner would have added things, but doesn't mean good things. This was the man who found Epcot Center to expensive to operate so he began the process of dumbing down the park. To much money to update Horizons so they rip apart the building and build a space ride rather then add a new pavilion. Add nemo to the seas for advertising. Dumb down Figment. Dumb down Energy....although that wasn't to bad for the time. Removed World of Motion...that's ok I guess. Then he was so desperate to make more people come to Disneyland that he went and created California Adventure....well we know how that was. Superstar Limo anyone? Walt Disney Studios Paris.....need I say more. Honestly that man served his time and I rather see nothing be built then crap being built.

your points are taken...

don't mistake me for being the president of the Mikey Eisner fan club - he made tons of mistakes later in his tenure that more than earned him the gate...

but...he was still more of a creative guy than Iger - who he had referred to as a cheap suit privately according to some accounts.

what eisner was at least to a certain point throughout most of his tenure, however, was an advocate for WDW and therefore for all of us as well.

The push for first mgm and then animal kingdon (he didn't follow through completely...no doubt...but still did much more good than harm there)...things that were different and weren't necessarily huge and easy profits like pleasure island, boardwalk, the west side...tons of new hotels that became quite elaborate (i'm thinking of the design of animal kingdom and wilderness lodge, storm along bay, coronado, etc)

flawed? yes.
but if the bulk of property had been built by Iger...how overpriced and boiler plated would it be in comparison?

until he lost his mind and became a crazy accountant...eisner was fairly committed to quality first.

these clowns are NOT.

they have green lit a fantasyland overlay and a questionable avatar expansion in what will be 13 years of rule by the time said avatar land will open...
its cruise control - other than the "cursed" DVC

i guess i'd rather a guy(or girl) who makes some mistakes but is aggressive in the approach...rather than conservative "do littles"

I ask this: who is pushing for the betterment of the Studios? studios is still entirely the doing of the eisner/wells era. the current leadership has done absolutely nothing for the park in ten years. (before you bring up toy story...which is the most overated simple flat ride in maybe history - remember that it was on the drawing boards before eisner left and was also in co-development for the major crisis in DCA - so there was an asterisk next to that as well)

I don't know...any glorified penny pincher with corporate stock options can never really be trusted by the fans of the travel destinations...that's just common sense
but the current leadership has really stretched the commitment to WDW thin and started to abuse the customer trust - from where i sit.

And i think epcots screw up was multiple factors...
remember that its initial cost was staggering (not ever even fully disclosed) and a mass renovation started to become that as well (reportedly $300 for test track...probably $100-$200 for a mission:space nobody rides)...and it became unpalatable.
Also - pun intended - people's IMAGINATION has changed drastically since 1982. everything in that park was shocking/exciting when it opened - even the mockup country pavilions. common man didn't have really anyway of seeing things that were presented there except by going to the public library and doing research with out of date print books...which nobody did.
what am i saying? computer technology development and most especially the internet gave everyone access to a wealth of knowledge and exposure that made much of epcot look somewhat pedestrian compared to what it was. expansive television and digital media has hurt epcot as well. nothing shocks us anymore - taking away from the draw. I actually think animal kingdom suffers largely from the same concept. "theres a rhino running next to the truck...whatever"

its a harsh reality that still is problem they'll have to figure out or it will fall into further decay.
more to come on that.