WBPC 2019 - Why February?

[Intr3pid]

DCL will likely have two ships on the west coast in the summer once the new ships roll out. Both of them will do Alaska in the peak months and then one will return to the Caribbeans in the winter. This is, of course, my guess.

Look at the profit margins on those Alaskan cruises. The price increases have nothing but accelerated in the past few years. Then, consider the profit margins on the winter/holiday cruises in the Caribbeans. Even with the competition, the cost to operate a Caribbean cruise is incredibly low. Calmer waters, shorter distances, competition among ports, cheaper labor, year-long demand, and so on.

Wonder may still be the one commuting through Panama Canal.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

DCL will likely have two ships on the west coast in the summer once the new ships roll out. Both of them will do Alaska in the peak months and then one will return to the Caribbeans in the winter. This is, of course, my guess.

Look at the profit margins on those Alaskan cruises. The price increases have nothing but accelerated in the past few years. Then, consider the profit margins on the winter/holiday cruises in the Caribbeans. Even with the competition, the cost to operate a Caribbean cruise is incredibly low. Calmer waters, shorter distances, competition among ports, cheaper labor, year-long demand, and so on.

Wonder may still be the one commuting through Panama Canal.

Which two ships do think that's going to be? Well, the Wonder, but who else? As noted the Dream class ships can't go through the canal. And, since the new ships are basically the same size as the Dream class, I'm guessing that they won't fit either. And I seriously doubt that DCL will send one of the ships around South America to get her to the west coast. Since many of the Mexican Rivera cruises don't sell all that well (with the smaller ships), sending one of the big ships for full time on the west coast - yeah, I don't think so.

That leaves the Magic, and I don't think they're going to take her out of the Europe cruise market. Smaller ship means she's accessible to more ports.

 

[Intr3pid]

Which two ships do think that's going to be? Well, the Wonder, but who else? As noted the Dream class ships can't go through the canal. And, since the new ships are basically the same size as the Dream class, I'm guessing that they won't fit either. And I seriously doubt that DCL will send one of the ships around South America to get her to the west coast. Since many of the Mexican Rivera cruises don't sell all that well (with the smaller ships), sending one of the big ships for full time on the west coast - yeah, I don't think so.

That leaves the Magic, and I don't think they're going to take her out of the Europe cruise market. Smaller ship means she's accessible to more ports.

I expect Disney to keep one ship full-time on the west coast. By west coast, I really mean west of Panama Canal. This ship could do Hawaii, Californian coast, Mexican coast, Galapagos/one-off South America, etc, in the shoulder season. There just isn't enough demand for more than 4 or 5 Disney ships in the Caribbeans at a time - except maybe during the holidays.

Magic isn't as far fetched on the west coast as you might think. Which European must-do ports need a Magic-sized ship? They will likely have one of the newer ships operating in Europe in the summer - plus maybe one more.

My guesses for all 7 are:

Summer: 2 on the west coast, 1 or 2 in Europe, 1 in Asia, 2 or 3 in the Caribbeans
Winter: 1 on the west coast, 0 or 1 in Europe, 1 in Asia, 4 or 5 in the Caribbeans

This is purely based on looking at the pricing trends in these markets.

 

[jdb in AZ]

I expect Disney to keep one ship full-time on the west coast. By west coast, I really mean west of Panama Canal. This ship could do Hawaii, Californian coast, Mexican coast, Galapagos/one-off South America, etc, in the shoulder season. There just isn't enough demand for more than 4 or 5 Disney ships in the Caribbeans at a time - except maybe during the holidays.

Magic isn't as far fetched on the west coast as you might think. Which European must-do ports need a Magic-sized ship? They will likely have one of the newer ships operating in Europe in the summer - plus maybe one more.

My guesses for all 7 are:

Summer: 2 on the west coast, 1 or 2 in Europe, 1 in Asia, 2 or 3 in the Caribbeans
Winter: 1 on the west coast, 0 or 1 in Europe, 1 in Asia, 4 or 5 in the Caribbeans

This is purely based on looking at the pricing trends in these markets.

By law, the maximum number of passengers on a ship visiting the Galapagos Islands is 100. I assume that's because of the delicate ecology.

 

[Ravenne]

I'm kind of afraid that they'll stop doing PC cruises before we can do one...my youngest graduates high school in 2022...so DH and I would be looking at going Fall 2022 or later. Maybe they'll stop after they have all 3 new ships in circulation? Oh well...nothing I can do about it...I would have been tempted to do this year's as 1 week of it is during vacation week...but I have a senior that I couldn't pull out of school...plus she wanted a summer European cruise as her 'grad' present and the PC cruise is really just for 'me'.

We're in the same boat. There's just no way I can pull my kids out of school for 2+ weeks without some sort of ramification with the school district, as much as I'd love to see PC for myself, really, but I also think it'd be educational for the kids too. My hope is that with the new ships, DCL can do PC cruises more often, and maybe, just maybe, in the summer too so that school aged kids can experience it more easily as well. Doubtful. But maybe?

 

[missyp]

Both times we have taken that cruise, the final day cruising up the coast to San Diego was freezing (although, admittedly, Cabo was lovely weather wise). I can't imagine that would be much fun in February.

This is part of the reason we are contemplating switching from WBPC to EBPC

 

[arlopop]

We're in the same boat. There's just no way I can pull my kids out of school for 2+ weeks without some sort of ramification with the school district, as much as I'd love to see PC for myself, really, but I also think it'd be educational for the kids too. My hope is that with the new ships, DCL can do PC cruises more often, and maybe, just maybe, in the summer too so that school aged kids can experience it more easily as well. Doubtful. But maybe?

I don’t know how old your kids are or where your district is, but we pulled ours out for the PC. I spoke to the principal approximately 6 months prior to our cruise and we worked out details of independent study for our kids. Teachers prepared assignments, both their normal ones, and ones specific to where we would be visiting. All the kids were in elementary school (6th, 4th, and 2nd grades) and their teachers were excited for them to have the experience.

Our oldest even sent daily photos and trip reports by email (that used all my data) back to his teacher and she used them to create specific lessons for the rest of the class that mapped his path and studied Central American countries. It really worked out well for us.

Districts are different, but it can’t hurt to investigate the idea with yours

 

[Ravenne]

I don’t know how old your kids are or where your district is, but we pulled ours out for the PC. I spoke to the principal approximately 6 months prior to our cruise and we worked out details of independent study for our kids. Teachers prepared assignments, both their normal ones, and ones specific to where we would be visiting. All the kids were in elementary school (6th, 4th, and 2nd grades) and their teachers were excited for them to have the experience.

Our oldest even sent daily photos and trip reports by email (that used all my data) back to his teacher and she used them to create specific lessons for the rest of the class that mapped his path and studied Central American countries. It really worked out well for us.

Districts are different, but it can’t hurt to investigate the idea with yours

Yeah, not for us. They used to be pretty liberal about it...at least in the elementary school level, but this year, we got the "you need to stop taking your kids out for vacations" email from the principal, who used to be very relaxed about vacations. It's not just the school work, but I think it comes down to funding as well. If they don't have the student in school for x amount of time, the school loses funding.

 

[arlopop]

Yeah, not for us. They used to be pretty liberal about it...at least in the elementary school level, but this year, we got the "you need to stop taking your kids out for vacations" email from the principal, who used to be very relaxed about vacations. It's not just the school work, but I think it comes down to funding as well. If they don't have the student in school for x amount of time, the school loses funding.

The funding problem is here too, although the independent study works around it here because by doing that (there’s an actual contract we sign) they are recognized as actually attending school on those days away and so district gets paid.
But if that system isn’t in place where you are I can see the difficulty you dealing with