Overall, I think the 1BR will come available first. They are more points and sleep the same number of people so anyone trying to conserve on points will probably be opting for a studio over a 1BR.
That remains to be seen with regard to AKV since some of their 1BR will sleep 5 instead of 4, once all are complete.
That being said, if you have enough time before your trip, and aren't going at a peak travel time for DVCers, you should probably be able to get your waitlist.
I waitlisted for the first time this year for a studio at BCV...a last minute weekend trip in June for Star Wars Weekends. In late April, I was able to secure all nights except Sunday night. So, I waitlisted. It came through in about 2 weeks.
And that, I think, was very short notice...for me at least...so I was very pleased with how the waitlist worked.