First, its nice to have a good conversation here

(i.e. not "Tell me about Port?" or "How magical is Akershus?")
On the restaurant boards, there was a monster thread about the CC guarantees when it was first announced. All along I argued that it was my opinion that the #1 reason behind it was to reduce no-show rates - according to Touring Plans/Unofficial Guide, the no-show rates varied month-to-month but were as high as more than 30% at times, although many people completely dismissed those figures as if they were just making them up.
I have never seen any mention or read anything describing the no-shows since the implementation of the dining plan and the merciless beheading of the "priority seating" concept. And it was a shame...because everything was more casual, the service was better, the food was better...and frankly, money was made. But that 30% number does not surprise me at all. It was obviously a problem - no matter what the silly reasons and explanations that they cranked out everyday. I heard a bunch of them in my visits...most more ridiculous than the previous.
However, I really didn't need TP's info for me to know no-shows were out of control. That was just reinforcement. I, and many others, have seen tons of empty tables at fully-booked restaurants numerous times. All sorts of alternate arguments were raised, such as they purposely left the tables empty because of staffing issues and what not. Many others also argued that they just needed to over-book for the anticipated no-show rate. That argument was ridiculous also as what happens if they expect 25% no-shows and then only 10% don't show? Then everyone will be up in arms about the back-ups. None of them made sense.
Yeah...the staffing issue was the biggest load of garbage...as even if you assume that disney is paying 100% over the wage cost of their employees - that means $100 an hour still would have bought them probably 5-7 employees on average. That means that every single table would have been filled - if disney was in control - no question.
The issue was that disney's labor pool is what it is: underpaid, low skilled, college and international program, often impoverished, and usually at least partly disgruntled.
It became apparent to me very quickly that the employees at the restaurants used the excuse of the bookings to NOT fill empty tables due to no-show and then just lighten the workload. I can't say i blame them...but it was apparent that it was happening on a fairly large scale. The completely full bookings provided a perfect excuse.
As i mentioned - there is no way that you can go outside and turn everyone away willing to wait at the beginning of a 3 hour period...but they did over and over again as unofficial policy for aobut 5 years. No shows became just a lighter workload...but it also robbed the mouse. What kills me is that it took revenue so long to figure it out. Of all the frontline, entry level managers...the food and bevs are the lowest paid and often the most stressed out there. Am i suggesting that they passively (or actively) said "screw the walkins?" yes...that's what Ima sayin'
As you said, since the CC guarantees went into effect, by all accounts there is much better ADR availability (correcting the imbalance where the demand for ADRs was greater than the demand for actual meals by probably more than a 2-1 margin). And FWIW, someone posted recently that while at Le Cellier and having a conversation with the manager, the manager said avg no-show rates have dropped from around 30% to 5%. That results in a win-win for everyone, I believe. It allows Disney to better manage the restaurants more efficiently (from reservations to staffing and supply/food ordering - possibly leading to fresher ingredients and therefore better quality meals) and for guests it results in better availability and hopefully less back-ups.
YES....and everybody will be happier! Because if i feel like rose and crown on a Tuesday at lunch...I CAN JUST FREAKIN WALK IN TO GET MY SAUSAGE AND POTATOES...
sorry...tension. But of course the no shows dropped....because all those that were locked out of practically every restaurant but marrakesh and hollywood and vine six months out...but had always or would like to do sitdowns...simply gave up! And i had a few occasions where this kinda thing happened to me...and i quit. It was so disheartening to try to sitdown and get nastily turned away. Disney really blew a big hole in their dining experience with this. The CMs weren't taught how to do it...many actually seemed to either not care or actually laugh at your disappointment. It was really a black eye. It left you feeling ripped off or left out...and as a former CM, i can tell you that there is no way to make a high paying customer feel better after they feel like the Mouse let them down...none.
IF the credit cards made it go the way of the dodo...then they finally did something right.
But back to the fastpass issue...this could be the same thing...enforcing what should have always been enforced to not make people feel like they are somehow on a lower tier...cause nobody gets a refund if they feel slighted.
Disney is better served if they attempt to keep those sentiments out of your park.
So nobody needs to go on Soarin' 4 times...its a big tv in front of an erector set with chairs anyway.